48
This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications
Table 18. Potential Expansion of Secondary Supply From Manufacturing Waste
Potential Medium-Term Secondary Indium Supply
2011
2016
2031
Indium Demand in ITO Applications (Tonnes Indium)
a
Low: @3% CAGR
1,033
1,198
1,866
Medium: @5% CAGR
1,033
1,319
2,741
High: @7% CAGR
1,033
1,449
3,998
Average
1,033
1,322
2,869
Tonnes of Indium Fed Into Recycling Plants
b
Low
936
1,085
1,691
Medium
936
1,195
2,484
High
936
1,313
3,623
Average
936
1,198
2,599
Estimated Secondary Supply (Tonnes Indium @ 65% Recycling Efficiency)
Low
609
705
1,099
Medium
609
777
1,615
High
609
853
2,355
Average
609
778
1,689
Scenario 1: Estimated Secondary Supply @ 90% Efficiency
Low
609
977
1,522
Medium
609
1,075
2,236
High
609
1,182
3,260
Average
609
1,078
2,339
a
Indium demand in ITO applications is derived from a linear interpolation of the European
Commission’s (Moss et al. 2010) total indium demand forecasts and assumptions that ITO usage
will continue to comprise 84% of total demand as shown in Figure 1.
b
Indium fed into recycling plants calculated as estimated secondary supply ÷ 65%.
4.5 Summary of Medium-Term Supply
Without any improvements to technology or pipeline efficiency, we estimate indium primary
production to be approximately 730, 830, and 1,365 tpa in 2011, 2016, and 2031, respectively
(Table 19). Production is currently relatively concentrated, with about half in China, and we do
not expect this to change significantly in the medium term. When including the possibility for
greater recovery and pipeline efficiency, primary and secondary production could more than
double to 3,370 and 5,560 tonnes, respectively, thus highlighting the significant impact that
advancements in technology can have on supply.
Significant secondary supply of approximately 610 tonnes currently takes place close to high-
tech manufacturing centers such as Japan, South Korea, and China. As demand for flat-panel
displays expands, we estimate that secondary supply could reach levels of 780 and 1,690 tonnes
in 2016 and 2031. When considering the potential for improvements in recycling recovery rates,
secondary supply could be as much as 1,080 and 2,340 tonnes over the same period. As
previously noted, secondary supply from manufacturing waste is not a substitute for primary
supply, and although recycling can significantly reduce primary indium demand (and thus reduce
short-term supply shortages or risks), secondary supply from manufacturing waste does not
address long-term supply risks.
49
This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications
Table 19. Total Indium Production (2011, 2016, and 2031)
2011
2016
2031
tonnes
% of total
tonnes
% of total
tonnes
% of total
Base Case Scenario
Primary
731
55%
827
52%
1,365
45%
Secondary
609
45%
778
48%
1,689
55%
Total
1,340
100%
1,606
100%
2,143
100%
Adjusted Scenario: Improved Recovery and Pipeline Efficiency
Primary
3,368
76%
5,557
70%
Secondary
1,078
24%
2,339
30%
Total
3,819
100%
4,446
100%
7,896
100%
Adjusted scenario/
base case
2.8x
3.4x
As shown in Figure 24 (2016) and Figure 25 (2031), the total indium supply curve keeps its
general shape from Section 3.6, but the curves are shifted upward because the direct and
opportunity costs of capital are now included in the curve. This increase to overall cost is
somewhat offset by projected efficiency improvements that spread fixed costs over more units of
recovered indium, and therefore lead to a lower average cost for indium production.
Figure 23. Comparison of medium-term primary and total indium supply in 2016
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
U
S$/
kg
of
r
ef
ined
indi
um
m
et
al
pr
oduc
ed
(2011
U
S$)
Annual production
(tonnes of indium metal per annum)
Medium-term indium supply curves (2016)
primary supply
total supply (primary + secondary)
total supply (base case + recovery efficiencies)
