Naval postgraduate school monterey, california thesis

ABSTRACT 
 
This thesis develops a theory to determine the best execution time to conduct a 
hostage rescue attempt. It does so by explaining the phenomenon of a hostage crisis 
biorhythm 
and proposing four principles essential for success. The principles of hostage 
rescue operations presented in this thesis and used in the biorhythm model—
surprise, 
intelligence
, 
operator’s skill, 
and 
deception
—are derived from looking at numerous 
planning models from special operations, from personal experience, and the thorough 
analysis of six historical cases. The historical cases show that in every instance any one 
of these four principles was overlooked, the operation was doomed. These principles 
have been determined to be the most critical factors that change as the crisis develops 
throughout the hostage ordeal. A thorough understanding of this biorhythm will provide 
planning guidelines to assess the best windows of opportunity for a proposed rescue 
attempt.
One main focus of this work will be an in-depth case study of the hostage rescue 
operation “CHAVIN DE HUANTAR”. This case study will present compelling evidence 
to reinforce my hypothesis, and serves as a template model for successful rescue 
operations. The analysis of this single case will provide a wealth of information on the 
success of this remarkable operation. Another main focus of this thesis will be strategic 
thinking of a hostage crisis using game theory analysis.
The findings of this thesis will enable decision-makers to plan and organize 
hostage rescue forces to act at the appropriate time (window of opportunity), maximizing 
their chances of success. Additionally, it will provide a useful planning model that can 
be implemented effectively and accurately, presenting a clear picture of possible 
outcomes throughout a hostage crisis. Furthermore, this thesis will help the reader 
become a better strategist during the planning, preparation, and execution of a hostage 
rescue operation. It will provide a thorough understanding of how these operations work, 
how to solve them successfully, and how to predict possible outcomes at different stages 
of the operation applying the principles of game theory.

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