Naval postgraduate school monterey, california thesis

1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 
2. REPORT DATE
September 2004 
3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED
Master’s Thesis 
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
: Anatomy of a Rescue: What Makes Hostage Rescue 
Operations Successful?
6. AUTHOR(S):
Carlos M. Pérez 
5. FUNDING NUMBERS 
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 
Naval Postgraduate School 
Monterey, CA 93943-5000 
8. PERFORMING 
ORGANIZATION REPORT 
NUMBER
9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 
N/A 
10. SPONSORING / MONITORING 
AGENCY REPORT NUMBER
11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official 
policy, position, or endorsement of the Naval Postgraduate School, the United States Special Operations Command, the 
Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. The original document contains color images. 
12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
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ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words)
This thesis develops a theory to determine the best execution time to conduct a hostage rescue attempt. It does so by 
explaining the phenomenon of a hostage crisis 
biorhythm 
and proposing four principles essential for success. The principles of 
hostage rescue operations presented in this thesis and used in the biorhythm model—
surprise, intelligence
, 
operator’s skill, 
and 
deception
—are derived from looking at numerous planning models from special operations, from personal experience, and the 
thorough analysis of six historical cases. The historical cases show that in every instance any one of these four principles was 
overlooked, the operation was doomed. These principles have been determined to be the most critical factors that change as the 
crisis develops throughout the hostage ordeal. A thorough understanding of this biorhythm will provide planning guidelines to 
assess the best windows of opportunity for a proposed rescue attempt. One main focus of this work will be an in-depth case 
study of the hostage rescue operation “CHAVIN DE HUANTAR”. This case study will present compelling evidence to 
reinforce my hypothesis, and serves as a template model for successful rescue operations. The analysis of this single case will 
provide a wealth of information on the success of this remarkable operation. Another main focus of this thesis will be strategic 
thinking of a hostage crisis using game theory analysis. The findings of this thesis will enable decision-makers to plan and 
organize hostage rescue forces to act at the appropriate time (window of opportunity), maximizing their chances of success.
Additionally, it will provide a useful planning model that can be implemented effectively and accurately, presenting a clear 
picture of possible outcomes throughout a hostage crisis. Furthermore, this thesis will help the reader become a better strategist 
during the planning, preparation, and execution of a hostage rescue operation. It will provide a thorough understanding of how 
these operations work, how to solve them successfully, and how to predict possible outcomes at different stages of the 
operation applying the principles of game theory.