Orlivka Community Adaptation Plan to Climate Change Impacts Odesa 2015

Regional trends of Climate Change

Currently there are no regional climate models for either Ukrainian Danube, or for Danube Delta region, which is located in Romania, Ukraine and Moldova. In this regard, for assessment of climate change trends in the region of the Danube Delta and southern Bessarabia used trilateral Romanian-Ukrainian-Moldovan project "Adaptation Danube Delta to climate change through integrated management of water and land resources "(more about the project: http://wwf.panda.org/uk/wwf_ukraine_ukr/danube_region_ukr/dd_climate_adaptation/).

In order to forecast future climate parameters and fundamental consequences for Danube Delta region the following climate change scenarios were used in above-mentioned project: A1B - scenario of moderate, sustainable use of fossil fuels, MPI-M-REMO regional climate model and global climate model - ECHAM5-r3, as most likely for the period until 2050. The analysis of climate change tendencies based on a comparison of data for climate scenario and medium-term climatic and agro-climatic characteristics indicators for three periods: 1986 - 2005 (base period), 2011 - 2030 (first period), 2031 - 2050 (second period). Determining the current trends in climate parameters and specification data modelling was based on the results of long-term observations of Danube Hydrometeorological Observatory in Ishmael. Data analysis of long-term meteorological observation in Danube Delta region and southern Bessarabia show the following tendency of changing the parameters:

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  By 2050 the average annual temperature will increase by 1-1,5 ° C (summer - 1,8 ° C and in winter - 1,3 ° C). This will reduce the period with temperatures below 0 ° C, the extension of the warm dry season, increasing the intensity of evaporation, increasing the number of extremely hot days and decrease the period of permanent snow cover. More rapid change of seasons is very likely.
  
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  Long-term forecasts of precipitations characterized by considerable uncertainty. Projected average annual decrease in precipitation by 5-15%, but is also possible slight increase (6%) in rainfall due to heavy rains in the warm season.
  
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  Extreme and dangerous weather events such as storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, heavy rains and snow, thunderstorms and hail, will occur more frequently and will have much bigger destructive power.
  
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  The average flow of water in Danube in 2050 will not change significantly, but the redistribution of runoff seasons can reduce the summer runoff and increasing it in winter period. Small rivers undergo of severe water stress in consequence of reducing runoff (by 5-25%) and its redistribution by season.
  

Parameters / features *	Period (years)		Comments
	2011-2030	2031-2050
The average annual temperature	+0.5°С ↑	1.0-1.5°С↑	The average temperature in the surface will increase
Maximal annual temperature	+0.8°С ↑	+2.0°С ↑	Increasing of absolute maximum temperature
Minimal annual temperature	+0.6°С ↑	+1.5°С ↑	The minimum temperature will rise on coastal areas, but in delta extension could remain at current level
Temperature in summer months	+0.5°С ↑	+1.3°С ↑	Mainly in July-August
Temperature in winter months	+0.5°С ↑	+1.2°С ↑	Mainly in January-February
Number of days with frost	↓	↓	Decreases
Duration of warm period	↑	↑	Possible speeding of seasons change - sharp transitions
Number of days with snow cover	↓	↓	Decreases
Total annual precipitation	+3%↑	+6%↑	Total increase in annual precipitation, but significant rainfall redistribution between the seasons is predicted
Extreme precipitation, rain, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail	↑	↑	Increasing temperature is complemented by increased moisture content in lower troposphere. This will increase variability of the atmosphere during the warm period of year and increase number and intensity of convective natural phenomena: rain, squalls, thunderstorms and hail
Deficiency of water (drought)	↑	↑	A general warming and increasing the absolute maximum temperature. Is possible because of the temperature distribution between seasons
Heating the soil	↑	↑	Due to the general warming and increasing the absolute maximum temperature
Evaporation	↑	↑	Growing due to increasing temperature
Flooding associated with a local runoff	↑	↑	Growing due to increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rains
The intensity and height of the floods on Danube River	↑	↑	Calculated hydrological characteristics will probably change, particularly characteristics relating to runoff and water level of 1% security rate.
Minimum Danube River runoff	↓	↓	Decreases due to rising temperatures during low water period.
A solid runoff of Danube	↑	↑	Stabilization or slight growth due to increasing of showers on the middle and lower Danube. Possible increase the maximum solid runoff
Flooding of coastal areas, flooding and partial flooding of territories	↑	↑	Growing due to increased sea level and increased frequency of Surge phenomena – (changes in water levels in reservoir shores) associated to increasing number of squalls and tornadoes
The water temperature in delta channels and adjacent water bodies	+0.7↑	+1.5↑	Growing in all water bodies of delta
Temperature of lakes in summer	+1.0↑	+2.0↑	Growing in nearly all Danube lakes
Water quality	↓	↓	Deteriorating due to reduction the concentration of dissolved oxygen. Deteriorating water exchange and eutrophication of water bodies
Ice phenomena	↓	↓	Reducing the frequency and intensity of ice phenomena
Frequency of years with low water levels in lakes	↑	↑	Due to lower water levels in Kiliya estuary and possible reduction of runoff minimum
Water exchange processes in lakes	↓	↓	Reducing the minimum level in Danube and extension of their standing due to lowering the water level in Kiliya estuary.

* Change of parameters presented for period 1986 - 2005, defined as a base