Orlivka Community Adaptation Plan to Climate Change Impacts Odesa 2015

Main risks and threats

Analysis of risks associated with climate change in Danube Delta and southern Bessarabia region shows that increase the air temperature and, consequently, increase the number and intensity of droughts are the main threat to the region. This will have a significant impact on public health, main industries (primarily agriculture) and natural ecosystems of the region.

Although forecasts increase of frequency and intensity of floods of Danube are very uncertain, extreme floods are one of the biggest natural disasters in terms of spatial coverage and potential damage in case of collapse flood protection system along the Danube River.

Increased frequency and intensity of floods on Danube heavily enhances risks associated with flooding and underflooding of human settlements and local infrastructure objects, threatens life and health of people in areas of potential flooding. The growth of Black Sea level, which by 2050 could reach 0.5 meters under the adverse scenario, lead to higher water levels along the Danube to the town Reni, which in turn will increase the risk of hydraulic structures destruction during flooding.

Storm water floods in temporary streams and small rivers will also make a significant danger to settlements and infrastructure in the region due to increased frequency and intensity of rains.

The results of complex inspection of Orlivka village community are generally correspond with main trends of climate change in the region, taking into account the survey results of local residents about their observations on the consequences of climate change. Territorial binding of hazardous processes (landslides and the intensive development of gullies in the village, fires), weather phenomena (hurricanes, heavy rains, tornadoes, etc.), observed in the last decade, the risks and threats associated with quantity and quality of water, state of lands on drained parts of Danube floodplain in the future – are reflected on the map diagram. (Fig. 4)

After analysis of the materials, collected within the project, has shown that some of the most dangerous weather phenomena for Orlivka village are flooded community areas due t destruction of protective hydraulic structures (dams and locks) along the Danube. During the extremely high water levels in the river (the potential flood zone is shown in Fig. 4), or because of heavy rains risks and potential losses from floods will increase in the coming decades. Moreover, if floods of Danube can be predicted in advance, and they threaten the predominantly agricultural land in the floodplain area and the highway Odessa-Reni, the flooding in the event of heavy rainfall occur within hours and lead to flooding of a large part of the village. Just such situation has developed in July 2005 (photo) and is projected to occur more and more often.

Photo. Consequences of storm floods 05.07.2005.

Fig. 4. Schematic map of the main risks and threats on the territory of Orlivka community, which will increase in the future

3. Institutional capacity and adaptability to Climate Change

The development of institutional capacity of society, including adaptation to climate change issues - lies in the interaction of three sectors: authorities - public – business, determining the priorities and perspectives of development the society, economy, integration of ecological and environmental aspects in life. Cooperation of sectors itself is characterized by coordinating positions on the organization of social life on principles of sustainable development.

Institutional capacity of community can be assessed as quite high, which but not used actively / effectively.

To the institutional and administrative risks should include possible loss of administrative functions represented by Orlivka village council in connection with the administrative reform in Ukraine (associations of communities), but the urgency of adaptation to climate change for Orlivka village, as well as surrounding areas and ecosystems - remains on the agenda.

In determining, the adaptive capacity analysis of the preconditions for sustainable development of Orlivka society is very important, taking into account factors that affect it. In this case, the adaptive ability was assessed and compared in context of factors, which contribute to and limit the development of society. However, the effects of climate change on society was defined as negative and conditionally positive, depending on their impact on the environment components and society itself.

Therefore, the following factors can be identified that contribute to, or limit adaptation and sustainable community development:

Factors that contribute to adaptation and sustainable community development

Factors limiting the adaptation and constrain sustainable community development

A high percentage of natural areas. A natural potential of biomass as a renewable energy source. Preserved tradition of willow and cane growing and harvesting. High level of water supply potential on the territory. Significant biological potential of the territory. Favourable natural and climatic conditions for life. Plain relief is beneficial to the economy High potential for Fisheries. A natural environment for tourism and recreation. Presence of areas with high potential for tourism development (historical and cultural environment). Landscape diversity and unique landscapes. An extensive hydrological network, the existence of large fresh reservoirs. Availability of natural reserves and landscapes (ecosystems) and the possibility of their recovery. A significant proportion of ecologically clean areas. Significant land fund. Exit to Danube River and the big coastal strip (11.5 km). Direct exit to international highway Odessa-Reni-Ismail. Compactness of community (1 settlement). Gasification of the settlement. High level of interethnic tolerance among the local population. Construction of ferry across Danube River and transit capacity increasing Boundary location of community.

High level of natural and man-made risks. Inadequate disclosure of institutional capacity. Lack of public associations, including youth organizations. Possible loss of village council status. Local budget dependence on subsidies. Negative growth and aging of population. Labour and educational migration. Outflow of youth and lack of prospects for them. Monofunctional economic structure. High rate of unemployment. The low official income of employed population and high proportion of socially disadvantaged people. High level of land inclusion to the economic turnover and a high proportion of arable land. Minor (insufficient) level of forest cover. Lack of tourist infrastructure (hotels, campsites, signs, etc.). Lack of modern roadside service. Lack of updated urban planning documentation. Lack of information accessible for investors. Aging infrastructure. Inadequate waste management system. Poor and inadequate road engineering support. Absence of wastewater collection and purification system. Inadequate waste treatment system. The low level of renewable natural resources usage (bulrush, cattail, willow), solar and wind power, and others. Trans-boundary pollution of Danube River. Lack of nature protection territories Lack of village council/community Internet portal / website.

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