Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
11
Figure 1.3
“Basispad Kabinet” for the annual production from the Groningen field, Kamerbrief (29/3/2018) versus
Expectation Letter (2/5/2018). Note small differences in the first two gas-years.
Kamerbrief - Voortgang maatregelen gaswinningsbrief (6/6/2018)
On 6/6/2018 the Minister of Economic Affairs sent a letter to Parliament informing on the progress of the measures
to end production from the Groningen field (Ref.12). In this letter, a number of additional measures are referenced
that were not yet incorporated in the ‘Basispad Kabinet as presented on 29
th
March 2018. The risk impact of a
scenario based on the maturation of these additional measures to reduce Groningen gas demand is not assessed,
but would directionally reduce the risk further as compared to the estimates provided in this report.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
12
1.1
References
All reports referenced in this section prepared by NAM can be downloaded from the webpage “onderzoeksrapporten”
on
www.nam.nl
.
1.
Winningsplan Groningen – 2016, NAM, April 2016
2.
Technical Addendum to the Winningsplan Groningen 2016 - Production, Subsidence, Induced Earthquakes and
Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Groningen Field, Parts I to 5, Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij
BV (Jan van Elk, Jeroen Uilenreef and Dirk Doornhof, eds), April 2016
3.
Instemmingsbesluit Winningsplan Groningenveld, Ministerie van Economische Zaken, Directoraat-generaal
Energie, Telecom & Mededinging, Directie Energie en Omgeving, 30 September 2016
4.
Wijziging Instemmingsbesluit Winningsplan Groningenveld, Ministerie van Economische Zaken, Directoraat-
Generaal Energie, Telecom & Mededinging, Directie Energie en Omgeving, 23 May 2017
5.
Induced Seismicity in Groningen, Assessment of Hazard, Building Damage and Risk – November 2017, NAM (Jan
van Elk and Dirk Doornhof), November 2017.
6.
Seismic risk assessment for a selection of seismic risk production scenarios for the Groningen field - Addendum
to: Induced Seismicity in Groningen Assessment of Hazard, Building Damage and Risk (November 2017), Jan
van Elk, Assaf Mar-Or, Leendert Geurtsen, Per Valvatne, Eddy Kuperus and Dirk Doornhof, March 2018.
7.
Letter to Parliament “Gaswinning Groningen”, 29th March 2018, Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate
Policy.
8.
Letter “Verwachtingenbrief aanvulling winningsplan Groningenveld 2016” to NAM, 2nd May 2018, Minister of
Economic Affairs and Climate Policy.
9.
Eerste advies Adviescommissie ‘Omgaan met risico’s van geïnduceerde aardbevingen’ 23rd June 2015,
10.
Tweede advies Omgaan met hazard- en risicoberekeningen in het belang van handelingsperspectief voor
Groningen Adviescommissie ‘Omgaan met risico’s van geïnduceerde aardbevingen’ 29th October 2015,
11.
Eindadvies Handelingsperspectief voor Groningen Adviescommissie ‘Omgaan met risico’s van geïnduceerde
aardbevingen’ (Commissie-Meijdam), 14th December 2015
12.
Letter to Parliament “Betreft Voortgang maatregelen gaswinningsbrief”, 6 juni 2018, Minister of Economic
Affairs and Climate Policy.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
13
2
Production scenarios definition
2.1
“Basispad Kabinet” for a Cold/Average/Warm temperature profile
(Expectation Letter).
Total Groningen-quality gas demand in excess of the pseudo-Groningen gas
Detailed demand profiles (on a daily basis) were provided by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy (by
means of an Expectation Letter) for the total Groningen-quality gas production in excess to the other L-gas supply
sources, based on GTS studies, up to 30/9/2030 during either a cold, average or warm (gas)year
1
, Figure 2-1.
These demand profiles assume an average of 85% utilisation of the GTS nitrogen blending plant, and do not
distinguish between gas produced from Groningen field, UGS Norg or PGI Alkmaar nor the volumes required for
injection in UGS Norg and PGI Alkmaar. These demand profiles were constructed by projecting historic temperature
profiles for a cold (1985/1986), average (2011/2012) and a warm (2006/2007) gas-year on a L-gas market demand
model including anticipated future demand reduction.
The “Basispad Kabinet” cold and warm production profiles give the extreme temperature end members from the
past 31 years. Consecutive occurrence of 10 warm, average or cold years is highly unlikely.
Figure 2-1
Groningen quality market demand in excess to the other L-gas supply sources for a sequence of cold, average
and warm temperatures years. Top graph represents daily volume and bottom graph reflects monthly demand
volume.
Groningen production
Both the Hazard and Risk Assessment as described in this document and the accompanying operational strategy
have to be considered together. The Groningen gas field is part of the Groningen Production System. Here GasTerra
2
plays an important role, as they have knowledge on the L-gas market demand throughout the year and determine
1 Gas-year runs from 1 October to 30 September
2 The role of Gasterra in the operation of the Groningen System is addressed in the “Bouwstenen voor Operationele strategie
Groningenveld 2018/2019”, (Ref. 7).