POLITICAL
DYNAMICS
IN
THE
SOUTH
CAUCASUS
AND
IRAN'S
PRIORITIES IN THE REGION
The Russo-Georgian War of 2008 shifted
South Caucasus politics significantly and
created a new political atmosphere in this
part of the world. As a result of the war, a
completely new strategic situation has
emerged in the region.
7
Prior to the war,
since 1994, when Azerbaijan signed the
"Contract of the Century" (agreement with a
consortium of international oil companies
for the exploration and exploitation of three
offshore oil fields in the country
)
, the
strategic situation in the South Caucasus
could be characterized as a period of large-
scale Western penetration. The United
States, the European Union, and Turkey,
began to play a significant role in South
Caucasian affairs, which had traditionally
been orchestrated by Iran and Russia.
Moreover, several strategic programs
were launched by the Clinton administration
(and
continued
under
the
Bush
administration) and the EU. These included
Partnership for Peace, the Silk Road
Strategy Act, Caspian Watch, the EU's
Eastern Partnership, and others. The goal of
these programs was to strengthen the
Western presence and minimize both Iranian
and Russian influence in this very sensitive
part of the world. Unlike Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia slowly began to
drift
toward
NATO
membership.
In
addition,
South
Caucasian
countries,
particularly Azerbaijan and Georgia, started
to develop strong ties with the State of
Israel.
In the meantime, Iran, as a key regional
player, reacted very concerned about the
West's “aggressive advance" into the
traditionally Iranian and Russian sphere of
influence. Iran's hostility toward the United
States and Israel pushed Tehran to stop or
limit Western penetration as well as Israel's
cooperation with Azerbaijan and Georgia.
Iran welcomed the Russo-Georgian war of
2008, which it saw as a brilliant opportunity
to reverse the region's strategic atmosphere
from pro-Western to a much more pro-
Russian atmosphere --hence a more pro-
Iranian one also.
The Islamic Republic of Iran considers
Russia to be a key ally in resisting the
United States. Tehran prefers to be under
Russia's strategic umbrella and cooperates
with Moscow on global and regional levels.
Tehran supports the strengthening of
Russia's influence in the South Caucasus
and Central Asia for strategic reasons.
8
In
face of possible U.S. and/or Israeli military
options to stop the Iranian nuclear program,
Iran hopes Russia’s dominance in the South
Caucasus and Central Asia would prevent
the United States or NATO from deploying
military bases in close proximity to the
Iranian border.
At the same time, Russia also needs
Iran’s cooperation in order to secure both
the South Caucasus and Central Asia under
Moscow, or under shared Iranian control.
Tehran's strategic priorities in the South
Caucasus can thus be identified as follows:
1.
To
counter
and
reduce
U.S.
influence;
2.
To oppose U.S., NATO, and EU
initiatives and long-term objectives;
3.
To prevent the deployment of
U.S./NATO troops;
4.
To
block
both
Georgia
and
Azerbaijan from moving toward
NATO/EU membership;
5.
To minimize Israel's influence and
cooperation with South Caucasian
countries;
6.
To align the security order with
Iran’s strategic interests;
7.
To control Caspian energy resources
and transportation routes;
Mahir Khalifa-zadeh
58 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 17, No. 1 (Spring 2013)
8.
To contain the rising influence of
Turkey and the Turkey-Azerbaijani
alliance;
9.
To prolong the Turkish-Armenian
hostility;
10.
To oppose the Turkey-Georgia-
Azerbaijan triangle of strategic
cooperation;
11.
To ensure Russia's dominance and
the current status-quo; and
12.
To support Russia's leading role in
the Caspian-Caucasus region.
Last, it is beneficial for Iran to maintain
the current status-quo and to support
Russia's dominance in the region. In this
case, Iran is able to ensure its paramount
strategic goal: to limit or decrease U.S.
influence and prevent American attempts to
redesign the region’s political landscape in
order to secure Washington’s dominance.
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