Russia 110602 Basic Political DevelopmentsIran Sanctions Should Be Eased to Foster Nuclear Cooperation, Russia Says
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/155926.html 2/6 Tass 408 KALININGRAD, June 2 (Itar-Tass) —— The Russian Baltic Fleet’s large landing ship Minsk has left its base in Baltiisk for the international exercises Baltops-2011 to be held in the Baltic sea on June 6-16. The 39th Baltops exercises to be held under the partnership for Peace programme will involve 22 surface ships and submarines, 14 planes, eight helicopters from 13 countries: the United States, France, Germany, Georgia, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Estonia, and Russia. “What makes these exercises distinct is that they will for the first time involve British and Finnish Navy units and a Georgian Navy boarding team,” the Baltic Fleet spokesman said. U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Clifford Sharpe will command the exercises. June 02, 2011 10:02
"Another, the 15th, test launch is expected to take place from the board of the Yury Dolgoruky nuclear-powered strategic submarine," Konashenkov said. It is expected that there will be five test launches from the White Sea to the Kura firing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, he said. "If results of test launches are positive, the Russian Navy could put the Bulava missile complex into service in late 2011 or early 2012," Konashenkov said. "A state commission members of which will be aboard the nuclear-powered submarine will monitor the test launches," he said. Konashenkov recalled that the previous Bulava launch was made on October 29, 2010 from the Dmitry Donskoi nuclear-powered submarine. The missile's warhead then successfully reached the Kura firing range. The 15th test launch from the Yury Dolgoruky submarine was slated for December 17, 2010, but was postponed because the submarine was not ready for the launch. Fourteen previous launches were carried from the Dmitry Donskoi submarine that reequipped specially for them. Seven of 14 tests launches are considered successful or partly successful. Bulava, or RSM-56, is a sea-based three-stage solid fuel intercontinental ballistic missile designed to arm state-of-the-art Borei class strategic nuclear submarines.. The missile designed by the Moscow Thermal Technology Institute can carry up to ten independently-targetable hypersonic nuclear warheads changing their trajectory and can strike targets within a range of up to 8,000 kilometers. Bulava is to be one of the core weapons in the Russian strategic nuclear forces in the period up to 2040-2045. ar (Our editorial staff can be reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru) 11:36 02/06/2011ALL NEWS
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/156112.html 2/6 Tass 128 MOSCOW, June 2 (Itar-Tass) — The Russian Defense Ministry will resume trials of the newest submarine-launched ballistic missile "Bulava" from mid-June, the Ministry's press service told Itar-Tass on Thursday. The missile will be test-fired from a standard carrier, the Yuri Dolgoruky nuclear power submarine. "It is planned to perform five launches of the missile from the White Sea toward the designated district of the Kura range on the Kamchatka peninsula. "A state commission will be monitoring the Bulava launches. Its members will be present on board the nuclear submarine during the trials. "In case of successful tests, the Bulava missile might be added to the Navy's arsenal as early as in 2011 or in the beginning of 2012," the Defense Ministry said. The previous launch of the Bulava missile was performed on October 29,l 2010, from the Dmitry Donskoi strategic nuclear submarine. The missile was fired from the White Sea, and successfully delivered the re-entry vehicles to the Kura range. The SLBM R30 3M30 (Bulava-30), also called RSM-56 in international treaties, is Russia's newest three-stage solid fuel rocket designed for 4th generation submarines of Project 955 Borei. It was designed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering. Its range is 8,500 kilometers. The missile is capable of carrying up to ten supersonic maneuvering re-entry vehicles with the capability to change the course and altitude of flight. The Russian military are hoping the Bulava program will reach the designated objective to make this intercontinental ballistic missile the backbone of Russia's strategic nuclear forces in the period to 2040-2045. 06:43 02/06/2011ALL NEWS
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/155932.html MOSCOW, June 2 (Itar-Tass) —— St. Petersburg’s marine port started the loading of a special container with cone fairings and propellant components, as well as Soyuz carrier rockets onto the Calibri vessel under Russian-French project “Soyuz at CSG”. Calibri will fly for 3 weeks. Departure is slated for June 3. The European Space Agency (ESA) set up the programme “Soyuz at the Guiana Space Centre (CSG)” to bolster collaboration with Russia on launch vehicles. The programme is organised as follows: -- ESA is the contracting authority and programme manager, and provides the Soyuz Launch Complex facilities to Arianespace. -- The Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) bears overall responsibility for the programme on the Russian side, and coordinates the activities of the Russian industry involved in the programme. -- The French space agency CNES is the project prime contractor and system architect for the Soyuz launch system at CSG. -- Arianespace is responsible for the supply of Russian systems to CSG, coordination and support of the Russian activities during the development phase. Arianespace will be the Soyuz-ST launch operator at CSG for the operational phase. The first launch of a Soyuz carrier rocket produced by TsKB-Progress with Fregat-SB upper stage provided by Lavochkin R&D Bureau is slated for October 2011. The rocket will orbit two satellites for the European navigation system Galileo, according to Roscosmos. Arianespace Chairman and CEO Jean-Yves Le Gall said earlier the first Soyuz would be launched from the spaceport this year. “By all appearances, the launch will take place in the summer of 2011,” he said earlier. The construction of the launch pad cost 350 million euros and took six years. Currently, 150 Russian engineers and technicians working at the space centre and their French colleagues are finishing pre-commissioning preparations. Equipment trial runs have begun lately. The use of Kourou will allow Soyuz rockets to carry 50 percent more payload compared to those launched from Baikonur, Kazakhstan. The commissioning of the new launch paid at Kourou will increase the number of launches from 10 now to 12 a year. The first Soyuz launch was initially scheduled for 2009 but was postponed because of delays in the construction of the launching pad for the Russian rocket. In November 2009, two Soyuz rockets were placed aboard the MN Colibri roll-on/roll-off cargo ship at St. Petersburg to be taken to Pariacabo near Kourou. Russia's Soyuz-TM carrier rocket was then scheduled to blast off from Kourou in May 2010. However the launch was postponed. In 1964 the French Government chose Kourou, from 14 other sites, as a base from which to launch its satellites. When the European Space Agency came into being in 1975, the French Government offered to share its Centre Spatial Guyanais (CSG) with ESA. For its part, ESA approved funding to upgrade the launch facilities at the CSG to prepare the Spaceport for the Ariane launchers under development. Since then, ESA has continued to fund two thirds of the spaceport's annual budget to finance the operations and the investments needed to maintain the top level services provided by the Spaceport. ESA also finances new facilities, such as launch complexes and industrial production facilities, for new launchers such as Vega or for the exploitation of Soyuz. Kourou's nearness to the equator makes it an ideal place for launches into geostationary transfer orbits as few changes have to be made to a satellite's trajectory. Launchers also profit from the "slingshot" effect, that is the energy created by the speed of the Earth's rotation around the axis of the Poles. This increases the speed of a launcher by 460 m per second. These important factors save fuel and money, and prolong the active life of satellites. On November 7, 2003, Russian and French governments formally agreed to bring Soyuz to Kourou. With the signing of a formal agreement between Arianespace and Russian Space Agency on April 11, 2005, the countdown for the construction of the launch pad officially started on April 26, 2005. According to the contract, the Moscow-based KBOM design bureau had to be ready for the "all out" tests of the launch pad with the Soyuz-2 (Soyuz-ST) rocket within 35 months from the beginning of the construction. The tests were expected to last for two months, culminating with the actual launch of the first mission sometime in 2008, or 37 months after the beginning of the construction. At the time, the excavation for the pad was expected to start at the end of the monsoon season of 2005. As many as 50 Soyuz launches were expected from Kourou over a 15-year period. Arianespace is the world’s leading launch Service & Solutions company, providing innovation to its customers since 1980. Backed by 24 shareholders and the European Space Agency, Arianespace offers an unrivalled family of launchers, comprising Ariane 5, Soyuz and Vega, and an international workforce renowned for a culture of commitment and excellence. As of October 1, 2010, Arianespace had launched a total of 283 payloads, including more than half of all the commercial satellites now in service worldwide. It has a backlog of 22 Ariane 5 and 18 Soyuz launches, equal to more than three years of business.
Russian Navy authorities have denied reports that a submarine captain who swore at his superior was sacked. A Russian Pacific Fleet naval prosecutor said on Thursday Captain Roman Shchuriya was given his notice after bawling and howling abuse at a senior officer over his cell phone for failing to congratulate the crew of his Samara nuclear-powered submarine on Fleet Day. The video of the event went viral over the internet. "No decision has been made on the dismissal of the Samara commander from the Russian Armed Forces," Pacific Fleet spokesman Roman Martov told RIA Novosti on Thursday. He said Shchuriya and another officer featured in the video were being disciplined for breaching the officer's code of conduct. VLADIVOSTOK, June 2 (RIA Novosti)
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/156011.html (corrects type of plane) 2/6 Tass 91 ROSTOV-ON-DON, June 2 (Itar-Tass) — A Boeing-730 passenger airliner has made an emergency landing at the airport of Rostov-on-Don. The plane landed here at 03:30, Moscow time. No one was hurt. There was only the crew on board, an airport administration official has told Itar-Tass. The plane was on a flight from Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates) to Moscow. According to preliminary data, fuel pumps malfunctioned during the flight and the crew requested an emergency landing. The causes of the malfunction are being ascertained. Eighth car burns in Moscow in weekhttp://en.rian.ru/crime/20110602/164378967.html 05:44 02/06/2011 A Mercedes burned in Moscow's northwest early on Thursday, becoming the eighth car that caught fire in the Russian capital in the past week under unknown circumstances, police said. On Tuesday evening, a BMW X6, a Volkswagen, a Mazda and a BMW 3 were alight at a parking lot in the city's southwest. Another three cars, a Volkswagen, a Toyota and a Subaru, burned early on Wednesday in western Moscow. Police earlier said they discovered no traces of arson on the seven cars. An investigation is underway. MOSCOW, June 2 (RIA Novosti) 08:49 02/06/2011Top News
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c32/155981.html KRASNOYARSK, June 2 (Itar-Tass) — As many as 218 wildfires at a total area of 8,476 hectares have been registered in Siberia on Wednesday. Of them, 89 fires have been put out. The press service of the Siberian regional centre of the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry told Itar-Tass that the largest forest areas are in flames in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and Irkutsk region. All of them are located on the forest fund lands supervised by the Russian Federal Forestry Agency (Rosleskhoz). There is no danger of the fire spreading to populated localities. Rescuers on Thursday intend to build up the group of forces engaged in the extinguishing efforts. 10:06 02/06/2011ALL NEWS
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/156044.html 2/6 Tass 26 MOSCOW, June 2 (Itar-Tass) — Despite the fact that the State Duma lower house of Russia's parliament had on May 31 voted for the early termination of powers of deputy of the Just Russia (Fair Russia) faction Yelena Vtorygina who handed over her mandate to the leader of the party, ex-speaker of the Federation Council upper house Sergei Mironov, the lower house decision has not yet entered into force, the press service of the Just Russia party told Itar-Tass. It also specified that Duma first vice speaker Oleg Morozov (United Russia) has not signed the corresponding documents. Moreover, he did not do it either on May 31 or June 1, when the Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) was ready to consider this issue. Mironov’s colleagues in the party believe the situation is at least strange. “In theory, everything should be done clearly and accurately in United Russia in the paperwork. But esteemed Oleg Morozov just “forgot” to scribble his signature on the papers and went home. And the colleagues failed to remind him of that,” the source complained to Itar-Tass. Mironov’s party members are ready to assume that all this is “an embarrassing blunder,” although they tend to believe that it is rather an attempt to “suspend” the process. On Wednesday, the Russian Central Election Commission was ready to approve the transfer of the mandate, but the documents were not submitted to the CEC. “The CEC said that if the required documents do not appear, the decision on the credentials of Sergei Mironov as a State Duma deputy will be postponed at least until June 8,” the party’s press service informed. By a decision of the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg, where the majority belongs to the United Russia, Mironov on May 18 was deprived of the FC powers, and then removed from the post of speaker of the Federation Council. In accordance with the law, he has the right to take the mandate of the lower house, which he delivered over to Yelena Vtorygina then, as he took a seat in the FC after the Duma elections in 2007. In the 1970s, Sergei Mironov served in the airborne troops in the Soviet Army. Later, he graduated from the Leningrad Mining Institute and worked as an engineer-geophysicist. After a brief time of working as an entrepreneur, he entered politics and, in 1994, was elected deputy of the St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly. In June 2000, he was elected vice-Chairman of the St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly and, in 2001, entered the Federation Council of Russia as a representative of St. Petersburg. In December 2001, Sergei Mironov was elected to be a Speaker of the Federation Council. Since February 2003, Sergei Mironov has been the Chairman of the Council of Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of States – members of the Commonwealth of Independent States and since April 2003 - Chairman of the Russian Party of Life. Sergei Mironov is from St. Petersburg. Mironov was a candidate in the 2004 presidential election. He was not considered to be a serious candidate and was quoted as saying: “We all want Vladimir Putin to be the next president.” He polled less than one percent of the vote. In October 2006, he became the leader of the new centre-left opposition party Fair Russia, which was formed by uniting Rodina, Mironov's Russian Party of Life, and the Russian Pensioners' Party. This effectively makes him the leader of the opposition as the three parties together would be stronger than the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Mironov has several times proposed an amendment to the Russian constitution that would allow the President to be elected for 3 consecutive 5 or 7 year terms. In 2007, Boris Gryzlov, leader of the rival United Russia party, said that changing the constitution would be unacceptable. Mironov is considered to be more socialistic oriented, as he pushes for setting up special agricultural exchanges for state purchases of agricultural goods and for more state intervention in regulating prices of basic food stuff. Sergey Mironov is married to Lyubov Ivanovna. They have a son and a daughter. Mironov has an official blog. In 2008, President Vladimir Putin awarded Mironov the Order of Merit for the Fatherland, 3rd degree. In 2011, after an initiative of United Russia in St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly, Mironov was recalled from the Federation Council. Medvedev promises to look into Beslan massacre againhttp://rt.com/politics/medvedev-promises-look-beslan/ Published: 2 June, 2011, 10:47 Edited: 2 June, 2011, 12:17 “No administrative or legal measures have been taken” after the deadly terror act in Beslan in September 2004, President Dmitry Medvedev acknowledged during a meeting with representatives of the Mothers of Beslan Committee in Moscow. There were two main issues on the agenda, an objective investigation of the school siege which left 330 dead, including 186 children, and more than 800 injured, as well as social adaptation of its victims and preparing a law on the status of terror acts victims. Mothers of Beslan was set up in February 2005 and brings together mothers and other relatives of those killed and injured during the three-day siege in the North Ossetian town. According to the press secretary of the presidential plenipotentiary in North Ossetia, Irbek Doev, the meeting with two representatives of the committee, Susanna Dudieva and Elvira Tuaeva lasted two hours. They handed to the president a formal letter in which they ask to “punish those responsible for the terrorist act.”
The investigation into the Beslan siege is still underway but, according to Mothers of Beslan, there has not been much progress in it. Dudieva and Tuaeva told Kommersant that investigators have initiated no criminal or administrative cases, except for the trial of the Chechen militant Nurpashi Kulaev, the only surviving participant of the terror attack, and two local police officials, who were later granted amnesty. Susanna Dudieva and Elvira Tuaeva also note that after a terror act in Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport this January, officials responsible for failing security were brought to account. They say they want the same measures for those who let the Beslan tragedy happen.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hwk_bK0aeS0Zg4V_6jnuT_Nu45VQ?docId=CNG.52967ceaf24910be8108a999ac7262df.821 (AFP) – 58 minutes ago MOSCOW — Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin congratulated the controversial Sepp Blatter on his re-election as head of world football, predicting he would continue to work 'selflessly" for the game. Putin, long seen as a close ally of the FIFA chief, championed Russia's successful bid for the 2018 World Cup where to the surprise of many it beat off a challenge from England. "I am sure that you will continue to selflessly serve this remarkable sport," Putin on Thursday said in a telegram congratulating Blatter published by the Russian government. Blatter, who took over FIFA in 1998, has faced widespread calls for reform following allegations of sleaze surrounding the bidding for the 2018 World Cup and the 2022 edition awarded to Qatar. But delegates at FIFA's 61st congress returned Blatter by a landslide of 186 votes out of 203 on Wednesday after a call for a postponement of the election by England's Football Association over the corruption scandals ended in defeat. "The results of the elections clearly show your great international authority and acknowledge your unique contribution to the work of FIFA and devotion to the popularization and development of football," Putin said. "I sincerely wish you good health, happiness, well being and new successes in your activities," Putin said. Putin said Russia was ready for the "closest" cooperation with Blatter especially as it prepares to hold the 2018 World Cup. Russia's winning of the right to hold the 2018 World Cup caused consternation in England although in recent weeks the greatest controversy has surrounded the successful Qatar bid for 2022. The World Cup will be a landmark event in Russia's post-Soviet history and will be the first time the country has held an event across the swathe of its territory from the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad to the Urals.
POLITICS
U.S. Congress rejected a bill raising the state debt limit by $2.4 trillion. (Kommersant) Former Federation Council speaker Sergei Mironov will head the faction of the A Just Russia party in the State Duma. (Vedomosti, Kommersant, Rossiiskaya Gazeta) ECONOMY & BUSINESS Russian Railways signed an agreement to buy 1,200 electric rail cars worth $2.98 billion from Siemens and billionaire Dmitry Pumpyansky's Sinara Group on Wednesday. (Moscow Times) Belarus said Wednesday that it had asked the International Monetary Fund for an emergency loan of up to $8 billion, hoping to stave off a financial crisis in the ex-Soviet republic. (Moscow Times) The Federal Tax Service issued recommendations on how to expose illegal schemes with the use of dummy firms. SOCIETY
Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov promised Wednesday not to draft postgraduate students into the armed forces after a group of students who fell victim to a bureaucratic mix-up appealed to President Dmitry Medvedev. (Moscow Times, Kommersant, Vedomosti, Rossiiskaya Gazeta, Moskovskiye Novosti) Moscow investigators completed the probe into the murder of 22-year-old Spartak Moscow fan Yury Volkov. (Kommersant) The number of internet fraud cases increased 95% over the past six months. (Rossiiskaya Gazeta) The Supreme Court has submitted a bill to the State Duma proposing the creation of a united website for general jurisdiction courts and peace justices. The site will provide verdicts and judges' wages, as well as answers to requests submitted online. (Rossiiskaya Gazeta) MEDIA Russia might be known in the West as a dangerous place for journalists. But the country also has long been a pretty place to work, with many media outlets offering salaried employment to reporters and editors without earning any money in return. (Moscow Times) OIL & GAS Energy giant Gazprom will have to pay $18 billion additionally over three years for the right to be the gas export monopoly. (Kommersant) Gazprom has increased its investment program by 364 billion rubles ($13 bln), or nearly 45%. The company does not say what the money will be spent on. (Kommersant, Vedomosti) IT VimpelCom posted the largest profit among the top three Russian cell phone operators but failed to regain the second place that it lost last year to Megafon. (Kommersant) 12:11 02/06/2011ALL NEWS
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/156140.html 2/6 Tass 100 MOSCOW, June 2 (Itar-Tass) — POSTGRADUATE STUDENTS NOT TO BE DRAFTED INTO THE ARMY Russian Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov has sent recommendations to the military enlistment offices not to draft into the army postgraduate students, and this norm will be also backed up by law soon. The ministry reported on Wednesday that the decision was made after postgraduate students complained to President Dmitry Medvedev they have been receiving summons to the assembly stations. Earlier, after a similar complaint to the head of state, graduate school students of draft age were also given determent. The Kommersant daily recalls that the scandal over the postgraduate students’ draft broke out two weeks ago. Young scientists sent to President Dmitry Medvedev an open letter in which complained that in some regions postgraduate students received draft notices, despite their deferment under the law “On Military Duty and Military Service.” The conflict arose because of different interpretations of Article 24 of the Law. Under pressure from the president the Defence Ministry had to send to military enlistment offices recommendations to leave postgraduate students in peace. “The fact that the ministry has taken this step shows that we are ready to meet halfway both postgraduate students and high school graduates. Those who want to continue education will be able to do this,” a high-ranking source in the Defence Ministry told the publication. “We do not lose the high school graduates: after they get higher education, they will still be subject to the draft.” Human rights activists have welcomed the decision, but not all believe that without amending the law it will be fulfilled, Moskovsky Komsomolets writes. “The defence minister earlier had already recommended drafting the conscripts for service closer to home. But his recommendations were just spat upon - they are not fulfilled to this day. Unless amendments to the law are adopted, and most probably, they will not be adopted, postgraduate students will continue to be drafted in the army,” Chairwoman of the Union of Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers Valentina Melnikova said. X X X ANOTHER RUSSIAN TOURIST DIES OF ALCOHOL POISONING IN TURKEY A third Russian woman, poisoned by low-quality alcohol in Turkey, died in a hospital in Moscow on Wednesday. Three tourists who took part in the ill-fated yacht tour are still in hospitals. The Turkish authorities have promised to pay for the medical treatment of Russians. Turkey will also assume the expenses associated with the flight and accommodation of the victims’ relatives. The tourists went on a sea tour where they were promised a disco, a foam party, buffet and alcohol on all-inclusive, Komsomolskaya Pravda recalls. It was the alcohol that caused the tragedy. A friend of the deceased Marina Sheveleva told the newspaper that they had drunk several Whisky-Cola glasses. The cocktails were mixed in front of the tourists, but the whiskey brand seemed unfamiliar to the girls. The next morning the two friends felt very bad, but wrote it all off to an ordinary hangover. On the airplane, which carried the girls to Moscow the next evening Sheveleva was taken bad. However, she was rushed to hospital after an ambulance was called only the next morning from home. The doctors could not save her. Russian tour operators are preparing lawsuits against the Turkish organizer of the ill-fated sea tour, during which the Russians were poisoned by a cocktail with methanol, writes RBC daily. However, they will be able to file lawsuits only after the investigation finally identifies the culprit. Lawyers find it difficult to assess the prospects of the claims, because none of the tour operators has been in litigation with Turkish tour companies in the interests of Russian travellers. The Turkish Ministry of Culture and Tourism intends to soon officially demand from the country’s tourism market players to inform tourists about where and how they should buy food and alcohol, Rossiiskaya Gazeta writes. As a rule, most tourists simply forget that holidaymaking is part of everyday life in which anything, including an accident can happen. X X X BELARUS ASKS IMF FOR MONEY Minsk, without relying on assistance from Russia, has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan. The money will not save the country, it needs reform, experts believe. Belarus expects to borrow from the International Monetary Fund 3.5-8 billion US dollars, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. On Wednesday, Belarusian Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich told reporters about this. Experts wonder: has President Alexander Lukashenko returned to the “swinging” between the East and West or he has indeed realized the inevitability of reform and decided to cooperate with the IMF? There is no definite answer. The newspaper recalls that the most recent programme of cooperation with the IMF, envisaging economic liberalization, was curtailed as soon as the country received the last tranche. It turned out that many implemented measures were only an imitation. Experts believe that the situation could recur, if the IMF does not toughen the requirements and take the fulfilment of these requirements under control. Novye Izvestiya noted that the Belarusian authorities have even invited to cooperation of former head of the National Bank Stanislav Bogdankevich. Taking into account that he is the honorary chairman of the opposition United Civil Party, mercilessly persecuted by the authorities, it seems that the authorities have run out of their own anti-crisis ideas or the situation in the country is desperate. The publication recalls that last Sunday, Alexander Lukashenko harshly rejected the requirement for getting a loan from the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), which was announced by Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin - large-scale privatisation. At present, after a massive dispersal of the protest action on December 19, 2010, it will be difficult for official Minsk to get a loan from the IMF – because the positions of the United States and the European Union that are extremely critical towards the current leadership of the country, are strong in the Fund. Besides, the IMF, the same as Russia, recommends privatisation for the settlement of Belarus’ economic problems, but President Lukashenko reacts very aggressively to this word. According to experts, in order to stabilize the national currency and the monetary and foreign exchange market Belarus needs about 8 billion US dollars. Even if the opposition prevents an agreement with the IMF, the country still has prospects to get a loan from the EurAsEC crisis fund. The loans will not save, Yevgeny Gavrilenkov from Troika Dialog, quoted by Vedomosti, says categorically. “They will only buy time.” It is necessary to reduce the state presence in the economy, believes Alexei Moiseyev of VTB Capital. According to IMF estimates, the private sector accounts for only 30 percent of the Belarusian economy. Minsk should reform its macroeconomic policies: to reduce state spending, change the fiscal policy, reduce the volumes of emission of the national currency, Gavrilenkov said. According to his calculations, the Belarusian economy is subsidized for 8 percent of GDP: “It is too much.” Thanks to high government spending and subsidies, Belarus has managed to maintain a high average economic growth of 7.5 percent in 2000-2010 and to ensure the highest per capita income - 5,470 US dollars, says Ivan Chakarov, Chief Economist for Russia and CIS countries at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. X X X
WASHINGTON READY TO WORK WITH RUSSIAN LEADER WHO WINS ELECTION IN 2012 Washington has shown willingness to work with the leader of Russia who wins the 2012 election, writes Nezavisimaya Gazeta in an article entitled “Obama preparing for Putin’s return to the Kremlin.” The US side would calmly react to Vladimir Putin’s return to the nation’s highest office, the newspaper notes. Obama, incidentally, has already invited the Russian government chairman to visit the United States. And even as prime minister he would be received at the highest level in America. This invitation, believes President and CEO of the Centre for the National Interest Dimitri K. Simes, “speaks for itself,” especially ahead of the presidential election in Russia. At the same time Washington still pins major hopes on President Dmitry Medvedev. Obama will use the successes achieved during the ‘reset’ with the current Kremlin head for his own rating in the United States. “The nomination of Medvedev will be definitely welcomed by the US administration,” Dimitri Simes told the newspaper. “There is hope among the political and expert community that although Medvedev has not done much yet to prove himself an independent figure, his instincts are correct.” “If Washington officials were to decide who will be nominated for Russia’s president, it would result in the nomination of Medvedev. How they would react to Putin? Calmly. They will work with the Russian leader who comes to power. The cabinet reshuffles, as a result of which a person with a liberal reputation, especially in economic matters, such as Igor Shuvalov or Alexei Kudrin, becomes prime minister, would be above all conducive to this calm reaction.”
Editorial Judging by the pre-election activities of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev recently, Putin is enjoying a firm lead. But Medvedev has staged a nice comeback in the past two months — mostly in Moscow courtrooms. The first hint came in April, when two neo-Nazis, Nikita Tikhonov and Yevgenia Khasis, were given severe prison terms for killing human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov and journalist Anastasia Baburova. On Sunday, state-controlled NTV television aired an amazingly balanced report on Khodorkovsky, giving him a nationwide platform to maintain his innocence and to announce his plans to file for parole. On Tuesday, Rustam Makhmudov, a Chechen native accused of pulling the trigger in Politkovskaya’s death, was arrested. Makhmudov had remained at large since 2006. After moving to Belgium, he returned to Russia despite being on an international wanted list, fueling speculation that law enforcement agencies were offering him some form of protection. Medvedev, who depicts himself as a liberal lawyer, comes out ahead in all three cases. First, while the Tikhonov and Khasis trial was controversial, it did send a signal that the Kremlin has given up its dangerous dance with radical nationalists. Second, Khodorkovsky is the perfect martyr for liberal voters, who have given up hope on his release. Third, a conviction in the Politkovskaya case would also be a landmark event because the killers of journalists are rarely brought to justice. Medvedev as he stands today would be a hard sell to voters. But a Medvedev who has freed Khodorkovsky, tamed nationalists and punished Politkovskaya’s killers would look like a strong crusader for the rule of law — a man of action and principle. Although cynics might say the three high-profile cases are just another ruse by the ruling tandem to keep election intrigue alive, Medvedev should not be ruled out as a serious presidential candidate. But there is a catch. What might appear to be the dismantling of Putin’s legacy is not a dismantling at all. Khodorkovsky, even if given parole for good behavior, will not be acquitted. Investigators might have found Politkovskaya’s killer, but we are unlikely to ever know who ordered the murder. Ultranationalism is still not being fought outside the courtroom. And thousands of other murky cases — such as the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky or the beating of Kommersant reporter Oleg Kashin — have not been properly investigated. Most important, the power vertical, along with its creator, is as strong as ever. Medvedev may stay in the Kremlin without tackling these issues. But if a handful of high-profile cases is all that he has to offer in terms of political reforms, his second term in office will differ little from Putin’s policy of status quo. A second Medvedev term might then be best described as “modernized stagnation.” China will not be allowed into the Customs Unionhttp://rt.com/politics/press/izvestiya/customs-union-russia-import/en/ Published: 2 June, 2011, 06:34 Edited: 2 June, 2011, 06:34 Aleksey Aronov On July 1, 2011, customs control on the borders of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan will be lifted. It will be transferred to the outer contours of the Customs Union. Moscow and Minsk have set their import duties at the same level. However, an agreement with Astana has yet to be reached, say representatives of the Federal Customs Service (FCS). Experts warn this could lead to a flood of consumer goods into the common market from China. In a month, customs checkpoints between Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan will be closed down and their staff laid off. The countries will take another step towards forming a single economic space, which will appear on January 1, 2012. However, a border as such already no longer exists between Russia and Belarus. Our border guards though will not leave the Russian-Kazakh checkpoints until Moscow and Astana sign an appropriate inter-governmental agreement, similar to the Schengen Agreement. Most troubling is the fact that the Kazakhs are dragging their feet in synchronizing import duties, which must be equal for all of the countries of the Customs Union. Several hundred different products continue to come into the country under much lower tariffs, in comparison to the Russian, said head of the Analytical Department at the FCS, Vladimir Ivin. And if this “window” is not shut, the “draft” will spread through all the countries. By the beginning of next month, Astana has promised to come up with a mechanism that will protect the Russian and Belarusian economies from cheap re-imports – and FCS representatives hope they do so. Perhaps in the initial stages, Kazakhstan will operate under a quota allocation regime, or special importers will emerge – companies that have an exclusive right to import goods from abroad.
The Federal Customs Service expects the countries to exchange information about the volume of imports (the European Union operates under a similar scheme) in order to protect the common market from competitors. Note that this type of interaction is already taking place today. For example yesterday the Customs Union established a duty on the import of potatoes, cabbage, and buckwheat. Recall that last fall they were zeroed-out due to a bad harvest. And now it is time to support farmers once again. In order to make sure there is no lack of alignment in the customs space, it is necessary to synchronize not only the customs but also the tax legislation and the work of financial reconnaissance, says Dmitry Abzalov, a leading expert with the Center for Political Conjuncture. Meanwhile, interim measures, such as the introduction of a quota allocation regime, will lead exclusively to corruption, he says. If these problems are not resolved, the Customs Union will be flooded with cheap Chinese goods – mainly textile goods. After all, soon trucks from China headed for the territory of Kazakhstan will, in effect, be entering Russia.
The World’s Breadbaskethttp://russiaprofile.org/business/37677.html Russia’s Wheat Export Ban Is Coming to an End, but Food Inflation Remains a Concern By Andrew Roth Russia Profile 06/01/2011 On July 1 Russia will not renew its export ban on grain products that has been in place since August 2010, Vladimir Putin told reporters on May 28. The possibility of an additional 15 million tons of grain for the world market, as some have projected, would come at an important moment when American and European countries are facing poor harvests and the world market is looking for additional supplies. While analysts are optimistic about grain exporters’ reentry into foreign markets, obstacles include possible future tariffs and export quotas, as well as questions about Russia’s future reliability as a grain exporter. Russia’s role as an exporter of oil and gas often eclipses its importance as a world grain exporter, but Putin’s announcement shook world prices for grain to the tune of a nearly five percent drop this week. Russia’s decision last year to ban exports on wheat was influenced by severe droughts and poor harvests in Russia, leading to a severe drop in grain supplies and forcing the government to close the borders to Russian exporters. With good harvests being reported this year and being predicted for the near future, the country has decided to reopen the door for grain exporters. Yet several factors cushioned the drop in world prices over the announcement, and some among them point to concerns that Russia may limit its exports of grain by other means in the near future. The reason for that would be a decrease in local supply and a sudden increase in food prices, which would force the government to protect domestic consumers. "If issues of price increases arise, we will use means of customs and tariff regulation," said Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov to Putin on Saturday, reported Reuters. Internal prices are already rising, said Dmitry Rylko, the general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, and that rise will not be temporary. “The internal markets are going to have to find a new equilibrium point,” said Rylko. “Grain has not gone that way for some time now, and companies may find difficulties adjusting.” Other recent export bans have shown that the country, and Putin, are certainly worried about rising prices for key consumer goods. Russia imposed a one month ban on gasoline exports for the month of May to deal with suspected collusion among gasoline companies to sell on international markets, as gasoline in Russia sells at an artificially decreased price. It was further suggested that the ban on gasoline exports was likely to be followed by tariffs or export quotas, in order to prevent further shortages on the Russian domestic market. While the causes for future limits on grain exports and gas exports bear unique aspects, they both point to a populist appeal for the prime minister right now not to create discontent among Russian citizens with upcoming elections. Food inflation is likely the greatest fear for the government, said Andrei Sizov Jr., managing director of SovEcon, an agricultural markets research and consulting firm. “There’s also a strong relation between food inflation and regular inflation, as food accounts for roughly 38 percent of inflation. So taking into account future parliamentary and presidential elections, our authorities are quite worried about the food inflation,” he said. While he predicted that food inflation would be high this year, he suggested that it would stay below last year’s levels, when the ban was imposed. The other concern for Russia’s grain companies may be the difficulty of regaining access into markets it lost after almost a year out of the market. Russia’s exit from the world market sent countries looking for other sources of wheat and caused shortages, leading to rising prices. In extreme cases, as in Egypt, Russia’s exit from the market is widely seen as having contributed to discontent that led to civil unrest there. This has led to some reluctance for those countries to welcome Russian exports without skepticism. In an interview with Reuters, Nomani Nasr Nomani, the vice chairman of Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities, said that Russian exporters would be “dealt with cautiously.” “We do not want to fall into the same problem we fell into last year,” he said. Yet Russian analysts remained confident that Russian companies would be able to reestablish their business connections. “These kinds of relationships are built up slowly, certainly,” said Rylko, “but we’re fairly sure that within a month we will have made considerable progress.” Sizov argued more strongly that the likely fallout from Russia’s absence from the market for a year would not have a large adverse effect. “There are some people suggesting that Russia has lost its place in the world market forever, but it’s not true,” said Sizov. “People here are not loyal to particular brands on the commodities market. Most important here are price and quality, and we can offer a good price and acceptable quality.”
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