Russia Adv – 1ac

Impact – Tech

Colonization solves tech spin offs – water recycling, and resource management will improve life for all on Earth.

Rampelotto 11- Department of Biology, Federal University of Santa Maria

Pabulo Henrique, January, “Why Send Humans to Mars? Looking Beyond Science”, http://journalofcosmology.com/Mars151.html

The engineering challenges necessary to accomplish the human exploration of Mars will stimulate the global industrial machine and the human mind to think innovatively and continue to operate on the edge of technological possibility. Numerous technological spin-offs will be generated during such a project, and it will require the reduction or elimination of boundaries to collaboration among the scientific community. Exploration will also foster the incredible ingenuity necessary to develop technologies required to accomplish something so vast in scope and complexity. The benefits from this endeavor are by nature unknown at this time, but evidence of the benefits from space ventures undertaken thus far point to drastic improvement to daily life and potential benefits to humanity as whole.

One example could come from the development of water recycling technologies designed to sustain a closed-loop life support system of several people for months or even years at a time (necessary if a human mission to Mars is attempted). This technology could then be applied to drought sufferers across the world or remote settlements that exist far from the safety net of mainstream society.

The permanence of humans in a hostile environment like on Mars will require careful use of local resources. This necessity might stimulate the development of novel methods and technologies in energy extraction and usage that could benefit terrestrial exploitation and thus improve the management of and prolong the existence of resources on Earth.

***Asteroids Adv

Asteroids Adv – 1ac

Status quo NEO exploration is limited to 2 missions – interest for more is high

Landis et al, 08 (*Rob R., AIAA member and NASA Johnson Space Center, Mission Operations Directorate, **David J. Korsmeyer, AIAA member and NASA Ames Research Center, Intelligent Systems Division, ***Paul A. Abell, Research Scientist, Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, Arizona and NASA Johnson Space Center, Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science,****Daniel R. Adamo, AIAA member and Trajectory Consultant, *****Thomas D. Jones, AIAA member and Association of Space Explorers, “A Piloted Orion Flight to a Near-Earth Object: A Feasibility Study”, http://pdf.aiaa.org/...PV2008_3550.pdf) AFL
To date, there have been only two spacecraft missions that have explored NEOs to any extent: NASA’s NEAR Shoemaker spacecraft at asteroid 433 Eros in 1999 and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) Hayabusa probe at asteroid 25143 Itokawa in 2005. Both of these robotic missions are considered to be extremely successful and have generated much scientific interest in NEOs. However, even though the scientific community has a better understanding of NEO physical properties and compositions based on the data from these missions, there are still many questions that remain unanswered. For example, data from the remote sensors on both spacecraft have been unable to identify the exact composition and internal structure of each asteroid after operations of several months in orbit and a few landings (one for NEAR Shoemaker and two for Hayabusa). Therefore, even though both missions are considered to have achieved almost all of their scientific goals, they still were limited by the capabilities of their spacecraft. For example, NEAR Shoemaker was not built for sample return, and Hayabusa’s collection mechanism was designed to obtain only two small samples of the asteroid. It is still not clear if Hayabusa managed to obtain a sample of asteroid Itokawa. Preliminary indications are that it did not. Subsequently the science results that came from both of these missions, although extremely valuable, are still somewhat limited in terms of determining exactly the compositions and internal structures of these NEOs.
Two scenarios:
First is deflection:
Nuclear propulsion solves asteroid deflection- moves them out of harmful orbit

Spotts, 05 (Peter N., staff writer of the Christian Science Monitor, “To steer an asteroid away from Earth, try a space 'tractor”, 11/14/05, http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1114/p02s01-usgn.html) AFL
If an asteroid ever threatens to collide with Earth, scientists have a toolkit of ideas worthy of a Hollywood blockbuster. They might blow it up or divert it by smacking it with a projectile or planting a rocket motor on its surface. Now, two NASA astronauts are proposing a far more subtle approach: a space "tractor" that uses gravity to tow those hurtling space rocks onto a nonthreatening orbit. The issue: Astronomers have their eye on an asteroid called 99942 Apophis, discovered last year. If it hits a gravitational "sweet spot" during a close approach to Earth in 2029, astronomers say it would hit the planet when it returns in 2035 or 2036. The likelihood that Apophis will thread the eye of this gravitational needle is probably vanishingly small, they add, but they haven't been able to calculate the asteroid's orbit with enough precision yet to know for sure. If diversion of Apophis, or any other asteroid, becomes necessary, the typical toolkit of approaches falls short, says astronaut Edward Lu. He and fellow astronaut Stanley Love describe the tractor concept in a paper appearing in the current issue of the journal Nature. "You want a system with predictable results," he says. Unfortunately, approaches discussed so far don't guarantee astronomers would get the desired effect. Some have dubbed them "blast and hope" methods, he says. Dr. Lu and Mr. Love figured there had to be a better way. Their high-tech John Deere is a pendulum-like spacecraft with most of its mass at one end and thrusters at the other. The craft would hover above the asteroid's surface with the heavy end closest to the space rock. Mutual gravitational attraction between the tractor and the asteroid connects the two objects. Using nozzles carefully aimed to avoid the exhaust hitting the asteroid, and relatively gentle "puffs" of thrust, the tug could haul an asteroid into a new orbit in a predictable way. If the asteroid has its own tiny moons - as an increasing number of asteroids appear to have - they get pulled along as well. "It's a beautiful and entirely new idea," notes Clark Chapman, a scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo., who studies asteroids, comets, and other small bodies in the solar system. A significant challenge to blast-and-hope approaches is that their effect depends a great deal on whether the asteroid is a rubble pile or a chunk of metal. Indeed, some researchers have argued that if an asteroid threatens, humans would need to mount a robotic reconnaissance mission to find out how the object is put together before they could figure out how to deal with it effectively. With a gravitational tractor, it doesn't matter if the asteroid "has the consistency of a mountain of metal or a mountain of cotton candy. It can be moved without having to interact with it," Dr. Chapman explains. Lu adds that asteroids can have odd shapes, and they tumble as they move along their orbits. A rocket motor place on the asteroid's surface would face serious steering problems. The key to their idea, he and Love hold, is the right propulsion system - nuclear-electric motors. These are the only type of motors that can develop the velocity needed to close in on a potentially hazardous asteroid, then provide the gentle thrust over the decade or more needed to adjust the asteroid's orbit. Researchers have sent craft to asteroids using chemical propulsion, he acknowledges. But mission planners have had the luxury of picking tortoise-paced targets relative to Earth's motion. Most asteroids that make up the population of near-Earth objects move much faster. As elegant as Lu and Love's approach appears, it may not lift off the pages of Nature very soon. NASA has shelved a project to develop nuclear propulsion - a casualty of the agency's effort to focus technology development on a replacement for the space shuttles, due for retirement in five years.
The impact is extinction

McGUIRE 02 (Bill, Professor of Geohazards at University College London and is one of Britain's leading volcanologists, A Guide to the End of the World, p. 159-168)

The Tunguska events pale into insignificance when compared to what happened off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula 65 million years earlier. Here a 10-kilometre asteroid or comet—its exact nature is uncertain—crashed into the sea and changed our world forever. Within microseconds, an unimaginable explosion released as much energy as billions of Hiroshima bombs detonated simultaneously, creating a titanic fireball hotter than the Sun that vaporized the ocean and excavated a crater 180 kilometres across in the crust beneath. Shock waves blasted upwards, tearing the atmosphere apart and expelling over a hundred trillion tonnes of molten rock into space, later to fall across the globe. Almost immediately an area bigger than Europe would have been flattened and scoured of virtually all life, while massive earthquakes rocked the planet. The atmosphere would have howled and screamed as hypercanes five times more powerful than the strongest hurricane ripped the landscape apart, joining forces with huge tsunamis to batter coastlines many thousandsof kilometres distant. Even worse was to follow. As the rock blasted into space began to rain down across the entire planet so the heat generated by its re-entry into the atmosphere irradiated the surface, roasting animals alive as effectively as an oven grill, and starting great conflagrations that laid waste the world's forests and grasslands and turned fully a quarter of all living material to ashes. Even once the atmosphere and oceans had settled down, the crust had stopped shuddering, and the bombardment of debris from space had ceased, more was to come. In the following weeks, smoke and dust in the atmosphere blotted out the Sun and brought temperatures plunging by as much as 15 degrees Celsius. In the growing gloom and bitter cold the surviving plant life wilted and died while those herbivorous dinosaurs that remained slowly starved. global wildfires and acid rain from the huge quantities of sulphur injected into the atmosphere from rocks at the site of the impact poured into the oceans, wiping out three-quarters of all marine life. After years of freezing conditions the gloom following the so-called Chicxulub impact would eventually have lifted, only to reveal a terrible Sun blazing through the tatters of an ozone layer torn apart by the chemical action of nitrous oxides concocted in the impact fireball: an ultraviolet spring hard on the heels of the cosmic winter that fried many of the remaining species struggling precariously to hang on to life. So enormously was the natural balance of the Earth upset that according to some it might have taken hundreds of thousands of years for the post-Chicxulub Earth to return to what passes for normal. When it did the age of the great reptiles was finally over, leaving the field to the primitive mammals—our distant ancestors—and opening an evolutionary trail that culminated in the rise and rise of the human race. But could we go the same way1?To assess the chances, let me look a little more closely at the destructive power of an impact event. At Tunguska, destruction of the forests resulted partly from the great heat generated by the explosion, but mainly from the blast wave that literally pushed the trees over and flattened them against the ground. The strength of this blast wave depends upon what is called the peak overpressure, that is the difference between ambient pressure and the pressure of the blastwave. In order to cause severe destruction thisnccds to exceed 4. pounds per square inch, an overpressure that results in wind speeds that arc over twice the force of those found in a typical hurricane. Even though tiny compared with, say, the land area of London, the enormous overpressures generated by a 50-metre object exploding low overhead would cause damage comparable with the detonation of a very large nuclear device, obliterating almost everything within the city's orbital motorway. Increase the size of the impactor and things get very much worse. An asteroid just 250 metres across would be sufficiently massive to penetrate the atmosphere; blasting a crater 5 kilometres across and devastating an area of around 10,000 square kilometres— that is about the size of the English county of Kent. Raise the size of the asteroid again, to 650 metres, and the area of devastation increases to ioo;ooo square kilometres—about the size of the US state of South Carolina. Terrible as this all sounds, however, even this would be insufficient to affect the entire planet. In order to do this, an impactor has to be at least 1 kilometre across, if it is one of the speedier comets, or 1.5 kilometres in diameter if it is one of the slower asteroids. A collision with one of these objects would generate a blast equivalent to 100.000 million tonnes of TNT, which would obliterate an area 500 kilometres across say the size of England—and kill perhaps tens of millions of people, depending upon the location of the impact. The real problems for the rest of the world would start soon after as dust in the atmosphere began to darken the skies and reduce the level of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. By comparison with the huge Chicxulub impact it is certain that this would result in a dramatic lowering of global temperatures but there is no consensus on just how bad this would be. The chances are, however, that an impact of this size would result in appalling weather conditions and crop failures at least as severe as those of the 'Year Without a Summer'; 'which followed the 1815 eruption of Indonesia's Tambora volcano. As mentioned in the last chapter, with even developed countries holding sufficient food to feed their populations for only a month or so, large-scale crop failures across the planet would undoubtedly have serious implications. Rationing, at the very least, is likely to be die result, with a worst case scenario seeing widespread disruption of the social and economic fabric of developed nations. In the developing world, where subsistence farming remains very much the norm, wide-spread failure of the harvests could be expected to translate rapidly into famine on a biblical scale Some researchers forecast that as many as a quarter of the world's population could succumb to a deteriorating climate following an impact in the 1—1.5 kilometre size range. Anything bigger and photosynthesis stops completely. Once this happens the issue is not how many people will die but whether the human race will survive. One estimate proposes that the impact of an object just 4- kilometres across will inject sufficient quantities of dust and debris into the atmosphere to reduce light levels below those required for photosynthesis. Because we still don't know how many threatening objects there are out there nor whether they come in bursts, it is almost impossible to say when the Earth will be struck by an asteroid or comet that will bring to an end the world as we know it. Impact events on the scale of the Chicxulub dinosaur-killer only occur every several tens of millions of years, so in any single year the chances of such an impact arc tiny. Any optimism is, however, tempered by the fact that— should the Shiva hypothesis be true—the next swarm of Oort Cloud comets could even now be speeding towards the inner solar system. Failing this, we may have only another thousand years to wait until the return of the dense part of the Taurid Complex and another asteroidal assault. Even if it turns out that there is no coherence in the timing of impact events, there is statistically no reason why we cannot be hit next year by an undiscovered Earth-Crossing Asteroid or by a long-period comet that has never before visited the inner solar system. Small impactors on the Tunguska scale struck Brazil in 1931 and Greenland in 1097, and will continue to pound the Earth every few decades. Because their destructive footprint is tiny compared to the surface area of the Earth, however, it would be very bad luck if one of these hit an urban area, and most will fall in the sea. Although this might seem a good thing, a larger object striking the ocean would be very bad news indeed. A 500-metre rock landing in the Pacific Basin, for example, would generate gigantic tsunamis that would obliterate just about every coastal city in the hemisphere within 20 hours or so. The chances of this happening arc actually quite high—about 1 per cent in the next 100 years—and the death toll could well top half a billion. Estimates of the frequencies of impacts in the 1 kilometre size bracket range from 100,000 to 333,000 years, but the youngest impact crater produced by an object of this size is almost a million years old. Of course, there could have been several large impacts since, which cither occurred in the sea or have not yet been located on land. Fair enough you might say, the threat is clearly out there, but is there anything on the horizon? Actually, there is. Some 13 asteroids—mostly quite small—could feasibly collide with the Earth before 2100. Realistically, however, this is not very likely as the probabilities involved arc not much greater than 1 in io;ooo— although bear in mind that these arc pretty good odds. If this was the probability of winning the lottery then my local agent would be getting considerably more of my business. There is another enigmatic object out there, however. Of the 40 or so Near Earth Asteroids spotted last year, one — designated 2000SG344—looked at first as if it might actually hit us. The object is small, in the 100 metre size range, and its orbit is so similar to the earth that some have suggested it may be a booster rocket that sped one of the Apollo spacecraft on its way to the Moon. Whether hunk of rock or lump of man-made metal, it was originally estimated that 2000SG344 had a 1 in 500 chance of striking the Earth on 21 September 2030. Again, these may sound very long odds, but they are actually only five times greater than those recently offered during summer 2001 for England beating Germany 5-1 at football. We can all relax now anyway, as recent calculations have indicated that the object will not approach closer to the Earth than around five million kilometres. A few years ago, scientists came up with an index to measure the impact threat, known as the Torino Scale, and so far 2000SG2144 is the first object to register a value greater than zero. The potential impactor originally scraped into category 1, events meriting careful monitoring. Let's hope that many years elapse before we encounter the first category 10 event—defined as 'a certain collision with global consequences'. Given sufficient warning we might be able to nudge an asteroid out of the Earth's way but due to its size, high velocity, and sudden appearance, wc could do little about a new comet heading in our direction.
The scarcity of life in the universe proves both the probability and impact of our advantage

KAZAN 11 (Casey, Owner of Galaxy Media LLC and graduate of Harvard University, “Tracking the Realtime Threat of Near-Earth Asteroids &comets- could it save the planet?”, The Daily Galaxy, Feb 8, http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2011/02/tracking-the-realtime-threat-of-near-earth-asteroids-will-it-save-the-planet.html)//DT

Stephen Hawking believes that one of the major factors in the possible scarcity of intelligent life in our galaxy is the high probability of an asteroid or comet colliding with inhabited planets. We have observed, Hawking points out in Life in the Universe, the collision of a comet, Schumacher-Levi, with Jupiter, which produced a series of enormous fireballs, plumes many thousands of kilometers high, hot "bubbles" of gas in the atmosphere, and large dark "scars" on the atmosphere which had lifetimes on the order of weeks. Shoemaker-Levy 9 was the first comet discovered to be orbiting a planet, Jupiter, instead of the sun. This enlargement of a 1993 Hubble Space Telescope image above shows the brightest nuclei in a string of approximately 20 objects that comprise Shoemaker-Levy 9 as it hurtled toward its July I994 collision with Jupiter. It is thought the collision of a rather smaller body with the Earth, about 70 million years ago, was responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs. A few small early mammals survived, but anything as large as a human, would have almost certainly been wiped out. Through Earth's history such collisions occur, on the average every one million year. If this figure is correct, it would mean that intelligent life on Earth has developed only because of the lucky chance that there have been no major collisions in the last 70 million years. Other planets in the galaxy, Hawking believes, on which life has developed, may not have had a long enough collision free period to evolve intelligent beings. While NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, or WISE, is busy surveying the landscape of the infrared sky, building up a catalog of cosmic specimens -- everything from distant galaxies to "failed" stars, called brown dwarfs, closer to home, the NEOWise mission is picking out an impressive collection of asteroids and comets, most of these hang out in the Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, but a small number are near-Earth objects -- asteroids and comets with orbits that pass within about 48 million kilometers (30 million miles) of Earth's orbit. By studying a small sample of near-Earth objects, WISE will learn more about the population as a whole. How do their sizes differ, and how many objects are dark versus light. "We are taking a census of a small sample of near-Earth objects to get a better idea of how they vary," said Amy Mainzer, the principal investigator of NEOWISE, a program to catalog asteroids seen with WISE. So far, the mission has observed more than 60,000 asteroids, both Main Belt and near-Earth objects, with more than 11,000 are new previously unknown objects. "Our data pipeline is bursting with asteroids," said WISE Principal Investigator Ned Wright of UCLA. "We are discovering about a hundred a day, mostly in the Main Belt." About 190 near-Earth asteroids have been observed to date, of which more than 50 are new discoveries. All asteroid observations are reported to the NASA-funded International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center, a clearinghouse for data on all solar system bodies at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory in Cambridge, Mass.

Second is mining:
Mining asteroids yields many crucial resources- but only nuclear propulsion solves

Durda, 06 (Daniel D., planetary scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, CO. He is also an accomplished illustrator; his work has appeared on SPACE.com as well as in Sky & Telescope, “The Solar System beckons with resources unimaginable on Earth”, http://www.nss.org/adastra/volume18/durda.html) AFL

The near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) represent a vast and, as yet, untapped reservoir of mineral resources for in-space use as we expand the human presence beyond low-Earth orbit. About half the NEAs are made up of the same materials as a typical rocky meteorite. These contain small flakes of nickel-iron alloys and platinum group metals in much greater abundance than typical rocks from the Earth's crust. Most of the rest of the NEA population resembles the carbonaceous meteorites and contain a higher fraction of water and carbon-containing minerals. A little less than 10 percent of the NEAs are essentially massive mountains of nearly pure iron and nickel. All of the NEAs represent a resource smorgasbord far richer than the lunar regolith, the bleak soil on the Moon, another favorite target for future off-world mining operations. The question before us here is: Could we mine a small NEA right now and actually make use of some of this mineral wealth? That is, assuming that the operational and economic infrastructure were now in place and required the in-space utilization of materials mined from small asteroids, do the techniques and technologies exist that would allow us to do so? If not, what do we still need to do and to learn in order to make asteroid mining a reality? The answers to these questions also bear directly on the closely related requirements for preventing the impact of a threatening asteroid. Let's first look at the environment that exists on and around small NEAs before considering the technological requirements for harvesting their mineral riches. Planetary scientists estimate that there are some 1,100 asteroids larger than a kilometer in diameter. Smaller, football-field-size objects are much more numerous—more than 100,000 of them orbit the Sun in near-Earth space (although at present we have catalogued only a few percent of them). Objects so small exert only a feeble gravitational pull befitting their diminutive stature. The surface gravity of even a modest-size kilometer-diameter rocky asteroid is only of order 1/30,000 of a g. It is in fact the negligible surface gravity of these objects that makes them such attractive targets for future mining activities; the materials mined from their surface need not be lifted back out of a deep gravity well in order to be delivered to the places where the resources are needed. But this low gravity can cause serious operational challenges as well. Simply moving around in the close vicinity of a lumpy and potentially rapidly rotating or tumbling NEA can be counterintuitive. Rather than orbiting the smallest asteroids, oilplatform-like equivalents of future mining factories may instead "station keep" in close proximity, rather like a Space Shuttle orbiter maneuvering around the International Space Station. Human and robotic mining engineers moving about along the surface will similarly need their own on-board and very capable navigation systems for the real-time trajectory calculations necessary in simply moving from point A to point B. The difficulties faced by the Hayabusa mission in trying to simply "drop" the tiny MINERVA rover onto the surface of the 500-meter-diameter asteroid Itokawa show that we still have some work to do in even this most basic area of mining operations. Once finally on an asteroid's debris-strewn surface, fine dust—easily motivated in the milli-g environment—will likely be a problem. Electrostatic charging now becomes a dominant force on dust particles, causing them to adhere to just about anything, the fine workings of mining equipment included. And once it is there you can't simply brush it away. Apollo 16 Commander John Young doesn't mince words when describing what he sees as one of the most serious concerns for future lunar explorers, and the same goes for asteroids as well: "When people talk about long-duration operations on the Moon, the thing they better worry about is the dust." Now, how do we actually go about mineral mining in such an environment? First, we have to get there! Today, we can obviously travel to and even "land" on asteroids, but real mining operations are going to require much more massive and expansive spacecraft operations than NASA's NEAR-Shoemaker mission or Japan's Hayabusa. Ion propulsion allowing for sustained and highly efficient operations will be essential if we decide we'd like to move a particularly attractive (or threatening) asteroid into a more accessible orbit. The nuclear electric propulsion technology that NASA was pursuing through the Prometheus program was a very promising move in the right direction, but, unfortunately, that program has been abandoned for now. Although certainly challenging, Prometheus required no extraordinary technological stretch. Revamping something like that program will simply require the political and financial will to do it. What about power to run the operation? No problem! Solar power is a practical and abundant option in near-Earth space. And of course, if you're moving about the Solar System in nuclear fission-powered spacecraft, you have a lot of power to spare coming along for the ride.
Asteroids specificially contain important, mineable semiconductor group metals.

Gerlach 05 Charles L. Gerlach is founder and CEO of Gerlach Space Systems LLC, a privately funded, early-stage start-up focused on designing, building, and operating highly automated systems to cost-effectively locate, extract, process, refine, and deliver near-Earth object resources to Earth/Earth orbit for commercial use. Mr. Gerlach is a strategy consultant who specializes in emerging technologies and business models. Prior to founding Gerlach Space Systems, he was Global Communications Sector Lead at IBM Corp.’s Institute for Business Value. He is also an attorney and former law professor. He is a graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Law School. (5-22-2005, Charles L. Gerlach, “Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources”, National Space Society, http://abundantplanet.org/files/Space-Ast-Profitably-Exploiting-NEO-Gerlach-2005.pdf) RP

The geological characteristics of NEOs are governed by the environment in which they formed. Most asteroids condensed just after the formation of the solar system, as reflected by their age (approximately 4.7-billion years). The environment allowed larger bodies, especially planets, to differentiate gravitationally – pulling such elements as iron, nickel, and platinum group metals (PGMs) to the core. There is a strong correlation to the thermal environment as well. Bodies forming at the edge of the solar system cooled more rapidly, slowing or stopping this differentiation process. Smaller bodies did not develop sufficient mass for gravity separation and reflect the original distribution of elements from the supernova event. PGMs are quite abundant in these small bodies, called chondrites after their agglomeritic nature, hinting at the original distribution of elements in the solar nebulae. As noted above, this solar-system-wide differentiation mirrors the localized differentiation on Earth, especially the sequestering of heavy elements in the planetary core. Based on spectroscopic studies and on “ground truth” from meteorite studies, near-Earth asteroids appear to possess extremely variable and wide-ranging compositions. 19 They include stony silicates with enhanced levels of semiconductors and of platinum group metals; 20 bituminous or carbonaceous bodies; 21 dormant or extinct comets with remnant ices and clay minerals; and reduced metallic bodies, composed in large part of nickel-iron alloy. 22 All of these substances may someday be valuable feedstock in the construction of infrastructure and supply of fuel for development of an orbital economy. The compositions of asteroids are inferred from laboratory studies of meteorites and from spectral reflectivity studies of asteroids at ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared wavelengths. Meteorite samples are the primary source of detailed data for asteroid chemical composition, especially trace metals. A rough spectral taxonomy of asteroid types separates them into three broad categories: · C-type (carbonaceous) asteroids are water-bearing with very high contents of opaque, carbonaceous material. · S-type (stony) asteroids are anhydrous and rocky, consisting of silicates, sulphides, and metals. · M-type (metallic) asteroids exhibit high radar reflectivity characteristic of metals. About half of the kilometer-sized NEO population is believed to be carbonaceous, and thus carbon- and water-rich. 23 If one assumes the other half to be dominated by S-type asteroids with a few percent of M-type bodies, one can estimate that the noncarbonaceous asteroids contain the following: about 20 percent metallic iron-nickel alloy; about 6 percent of the ferrous sulphide mineral troilite, and large amounts of olivine, pyroxene, and plagioclase feldspar; trace amounts of rare and valuable metals (especially PGMs) and non-metals (e.g., arsenic, selenium, germanium, phosphorous, carbon, sulphur). The mineralogical, chemical and physical properties of four different asteroid types based on meteorite samples are shown in Figure 5. Figure 5. Mineralogical, Chemical and Physical Properties of Asteroids 7.0- 1.5-1.9 7.8 3.53.8 Density 3.3 2.0-2.8 (g/cm3 ) Physical TiO2 — — — — 7.7% CaO — — — — 12.1% P2O5 0.28% 0.23% 0.28% — 0.12% K2O 0.04% 0.04% 0.1% — 0.15% Na2O 0.55% 0.3% 0.9% — 0.44% Al2O3 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% — 13.8% MgO 23.8% 20% 24% — 8.2% SiO2 33.8% 28% 38% — 42.5% Mineral FeO 15.4% 22% 10% — 15.8% Oxides S 1.3% 2% 1.5% — 0.12% H2O 5.7% 12% 0.15% — 0.045%6 1.9- 3% — 0.014% 3.0% C 1.4% Volatiles Co 0.11% — 0.1% 0.5% — Ni 1.4% — 1-2% 10% — Free Metals Fe 10.7% 0.1% 6-19% 88% 0.1% Lunar Regolith MType SType Mineral C2-Type C1-Type 7.0- 1.5-1.9 7.8 3.53.8 Density 3.3 2.0-2.8 (g/cm3 ) Physical TiO2 — — — — 7.7% CaO — — — — 12.1% P2O5 0.28% 0.23% 0.28% — 0.12% K2O 0.04% 0.04% 0.1% — 0.15% Na2O 0.55% 0.3% 0.9% — 0.44% Al2O3 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% — 13.8% MgO 23.8% 20% 24% — 8.2% SiO2 33.8% 28% 38% — 42.5% Mineral FeO 15.4% 22% 10% — 15.8% Oxides S 1.3% 2% 1.5% — 0.12% H2O 5.7% 12% 0.15% — 0.045%6 1.9- 3% — 0.014% 3.0% C 1.4% Volatiles Co 0.11% — 0.1% 0.5% — Ni 1.4% — 1-2% 10% — Free Metals Fe 10.7% 0.1% 6-19% 88% 0.1% Lunar Regolith MType SType Mineral C2-Type C1-Type This table depicts four representative asteroids based on four different meteorite types. Note that individual meteorites vary dramatically in composition, and this table presents samples from within only four categories. Source: B. O’Leary at al., Retrieval of Asteroidal Materials, Space Resources and Settlements, NASA SP428 (1979) pp. 142–155; Apollo 11 lunar soil sample data.Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 9 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). Carbonaceous asteroids contain important commodities for life support and are therefore important targets for future mining. Our knowledge of these bodies is based on the chemical analysis of meteorites believed to come from these parent bodies, known as carbonaceous chondrites. Carbonaceous chondrites are named after the tiny pellets of rock called chondrules embedded in them, a result of a kind of chemical fractionation unique to small bodies. They are crumbly, and probably came from parent bodies that were too small to undergo a large degree of gravitational differentiation or are collision ejecta from less than catastrophic collisions of slightly differentiated bodies. 2.6. Platinum Group Metals Platinum-group metals (PGMs) include the six metallic elements platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium. Platinum occurs either in placer deposits or in host mineral deposits. Other PGMs are often alloyed with platinum, and gold is a common deposit on platinum crystals. While PGMs may have been abundant during stellar formation, they are highly depleted in the Earth’s crust and are found in only a few locations on its surface. Many asteroids are believed to be made up of primitive core materials rich in sidereal elements such as rgw PGMs that are so rare in the Earth’s crust. PGMs are found dissolved among metallic phase grains, especially in ordinary chondrites. PGMs represent perhaps the most attractive NEO resources. Unlike other potential NEO resources, PGMs have commercial values of thousands of dollars per kilogram, making them especially attractive as candidates for refining and returning to Earth. In fact, Lewis and Meinel have asserted that "all common classes of meteorites contain higher concentration of platinum-group metals than the richest ore bodies in Earth's crust," 24 and a growing body of evidence supports this conclusion that concentrations of platinum and other PGMs are significantly higher in many asteroids than concentrations found in the best mines on Earth. On Earth, we observe concentrations of 4 to 6 parts per billion (ppb) in the best mines because there is little platinum in the Earth’s crust (due to the processes discussed above). Concentrations of 30 to 60 ppb are hypothesized in many asteroids with a potential of 250 ppb or even 1,000+ ppb based on meteorite studies (Figure 6). 25 Figure 6. Platinum Concentration in Selected Chondrite Meteorite Samples Ornans Murchison Chondrite Sample Pt (Parts per Million) Allende Jajh de Kot Lalu Kota Kota Qingzhen Daniel’s Kuil St. Sauveur Atlanta Khairpur Adhi Kot Bremervorde Chainpur 1.308 1.160 1.437 0.960 1.092 1.194 1.093 1.037 1.166 0.900 1.075 1.236 0.745 Carbonaceous Ordinary Enstatite Note: Analytical uncertainties are approximately +0.2% for Pt. Source: M.F. Horan, R.J. Walker, and J.W. Morgan, “High Precision Measurements of Pt and Os in Chondrites,” Lunar and Planetary Science XXX (2001).Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 10 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). Lewis and Hutson note that the metal fraction of the typical LL chondrite contains 50 to 60 parts per million (ppm) of platinum-group metals, and the concentration in the metal grains in CV and CO chondrites could reach 100 to 200 ppm! 26 In addition, platinumrich ore may actually be ponded in loose regolith on some asteroid surfaces, making mining relatively easy. One platinum-rich 1-kilometer asteroid may contain more platinum than has been mined in history plus that contained in all known terrestrial reserves. The most important target selection consideration besides asteroidal composition is the ease of mining and extracting the metal. Mining operations will be easier on larger asteroids because they are likely to have many deep ponds of mineral-rich regolith. Mining metal from an M-type asteroidal core is likely to be extremely difficult compared to extracting it from the chondrite asteroidal regolith. 2.7. Volatiles The other NEO resources of particular interest are the volatiles locked up in these bodies. Comets are thought to be covered by a layer, between 10 centimeters and 10 meters thick, of dirt and/or dark carbonaceous sooty material. A little less than half of the mass of the typical comet is believed to consist of rock-like dust bound together by the ices that make up the rest of the comet (approximately 50-percent water ice, 10-percent CO and CO2, and 0.5-percent of a conglomerate of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen and nitrogen (CHON) materials). 27 The reason both active and dormant comets are attractive from a space resources development perspective is the presence of so many volatiles that could one day be tapped as sources for water, oxygen, and hydrogen fuel for space missions. These objects are rich in the raw materials required to make rocket propellant, construction materials, and even plant food. They are the crucial elements for operating in space and sustaining life there. Volatiles are likely to be easier to extract and process in space than other types of resources (e.g., metals, semiconductors). There is no complicated chemistry or need to reduce rock to rubble. Conceptually, one might need only to vaporize the ice and condense it into a cold finger that can be transported to a desired location or even tapped directly to fuel a solar-thermal steam rocket. The availability of inexpensive, locally produced propellants on orbit and beyond would revolutionize the economics of space operations. Many space-derived propellant systems have been proposed. 28 By far the greatest bulk of materials launched from Earth into space are volatile propellants. In space, expendables used on the International Space Station and manned space missions consist overwhelmingly of volatiles (e.g., air, water, propellant). In addition, the largest proportion by far of materials used by most processing industries is made up of volatiles and organics. Extraction and processing of volatiles from comets combined with technologies such as orbital fuel processing andProfitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 11 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). storage depots 29 and even solar-thermal steam rockets 30 could enable a wide variety of new possibilities along the path from our current small-scale space operations to largescale space industrialization. Native volatiles could be processed to supply space operations, while making possible new industries with low up-front investment. Bootstrapping of transportation with native fuels and industry with chemical microreactors could provide the technological and economic resources for large-scale space industry and space colonization. 2.8. Advantages of NEO Mining While untested and fraught with engineering challenges, NEO mining has the potential to dramatically change the dynamics of many segments of the natural resources industry. It transforms the dynamics and economics of almost every aspect of resource production. Robotic mining of near-Earth objects has several potential advantages over traditional terrestrial mining (Figure 7). Figure 7. Potential Advantages of NEO Mining Prospecting Processing Mineral Rights Environment Lead Time Capital Expenditures Scalability Flexibility Reusability Waste Disposal Description High proportion of targets are likely to succeed as “ore bodies” High grade ore implies easier extractive metallurgy No existing landowners to negotiate with or expensive rights to acquire No environmental laws or constraints increasing mining or processing costs; removes environmentally destructive activities from terrestrial ecosystem Short lead-time to production because initial mission to target is designed to return product – trial mining is relatively easy Fewer large capital expenditures (e.g., mine, plant, town, port, other infrastructure) and plant may actually be leased (eliminating most CAPEX) Plant is can be so small and inexpensive that it is eventually mass produced and discarded after use (making model extremely scalable) Feasibility hurdles lowered due to ability to move to a new target if first target does not meet expectations May be possible to relocate “plant” at end of “mine life” Waste disposal during extraction and processing is not a concern Source: Adapted from M.J. Sonter, Near Earth Objects as Resources for Space Industrialization Solar System Development Journal 1(1) (2001), pp. 1–31. Based on what we have learned about asteroid geology and operating in micro-gravity environments, we can conceive of radically new approaches to mining on an asteroid that may ultimately become much more cost-effective than more traditional mining operations. These advantages and all of the other attractive features of NEOs as targets for mining operations would appear to justify the risk and investment required to take the first steps. 3. Markets The ability to cost-effectively meet existing market needs is the sine qua non of any successful space resources venture. This objective can be divided into three components. First, capital expenditures must be minimized as much as possible. Second, the timeProfitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 12 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). required to generate real revenues must be minimized. Third (and really a corollary of the second), real markets must currently exist for the planned products. 31 Many proposed space ventures are destined to fail because their advocates have not adequately addressed these basic economic considerations. 3.1. Need for Near-Term Markets When exploring the potential commercial viability of various space resources opportunities, the ideal candidates are those where an actual market exists today for the product. Obviously, to make money a product and a market are required. Markets are based on need. There is no market if no one wants to buy the product. Would-be space entrepreneurs have identified many products over the years, but most of the markets are non-existent, hypothetical or government dependent. No independent commercial demand exists today for space habitats and astrocrete or orbital water, oxygen, and metals or helium-3 on Earth except to supply government-sponsored activities. This requirement for existing markets is the reason space tourism is attracting so much attention in general discussions of commercial space development. Several market studies 32 suggest that there is a readily identifiable group of customers who are willing to spend a specific amount of money today for the opportunity to travel into space. Most space resources development schemes, such as proposals to mine lunar helium-3 and return it to Earth for use in fusion power plants, 33 are dependent not only on investment in the infrastructure to mine and return lunar helium-3 but also on the massive investment in time and capital required to actually build a working helium-3 fusion reactor (if that is possible at all in the foreseeable future). Even smaller-scale activities, such as proposals to extract volatiles from comets or potential ice deposits at the lunar South Pole to produce oxygen, water, and fuel for use in space, require not only the investment in the mining and processing of the products but also in the development of a costly space-based infrastructure for actually utilizing those products. Decades of investment and detailed research have gone into studies of building blocks for a potential market on orbit for volatiles produced in space (e.g., orbital maneuvering vehicles, 34 orbital refluiding, 35 orbital fuel depots 36 ) but no such infrastructure yet exists. Without that infrastructure in place, no viable market exists. What makes platinum group metals (PGMs) an attractive product is the existence today of an easily identified, well understood market. Given a reasonable estimate of the cost to produce a quantity of platinum and deliver it to a given buyer at a given time in the future, one can calculate the financial return required to justify the investment with a reasonable degree of accuracy. The existence of the clearly defined market means that one can focus on the nuts and bolts of the capability required to address that market, rather than on building the market itself. And, ironically, this is in many ways an easier business case to build and defend than many of those for the Earth-based businesses that were so readily funded in the late 1990s. 37Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 13 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). 3.2. Target Markets Based on the need to achieve relatively rapid return on a reasonable investment, an appropriate approach at this point is to focus on the return to Earth of platinum group metals and complimentary markets (Figure 8). Figure 8. Overview of Target Markets Description Documentary films and videos Sponsorships and branding relationships Advertising Licensing deals Scientific data sets Scientific instruments Asteroid surface samples Platinum for sale directly into terrestrial markets Other platinum group metals Volatiles Semiconductors Other Comments Risk associated with space activities makes sponsorships uncertain Strong public interest in space suggests potential Space Development’s experience with NEAP suggests potential Ability to deliver more results at less cost deliver a powerful value proposition Largest near-term market Main driver of mission design Huge potential growth in demand within next decade Huge longer-term market potential but requires significant infrastructure investments before it can become viable Addressable Market Relevant segment is about $2 billion Expect market to remain fairly stable $100-million market Expect market to be fairly consistent year over year $5.5 billion (2003) Expect $10 billion market within 10 years Negligible today $100 billion orbital market within 15 to 20 years Entertainment/ Sponsorships Scientific Data/Samples PGMs Orbital Use First and foremost, the growing industrial demand and demand for use in jewelry will create a large and sustainable market for platinum and other platinum group metals. Second, the ability to deliver a rich supply of new scientific data as well as a broad selection of actual asteroid surface samples at costs far below that required to mount dedicated science missions, make this capability attractive to academic and research institutions. Third, unique entertainment and sponsorship opportunities hold the promise of attracting customers and partners willing to participate in the production of media content and to purchase content and sponsorship opportunities. Longer term, new markets will develop for near-Earth object resources on orbit: • Volatiles for refueling and supply of manned spacecraft • Semiconductor elements for production of photovoltaic arrays on orbit • Metals and other materials for orbital construction The capabilities required to address the platinum and scientific data markets have the potential to build a strong foundation for the longer-term orbital markets. Initial analysis suggests that the successful launch and operation of the NEO Miner mission concept discussed later in this paper might be capable of producing between $400 million and $1 billion in revenues from a single 3-year asteroid mission, with most revenue derived from the sale of platinum, but with sales of scientific samples and data and sponsorships and media licensing agreements sufficient to offset most of the development and launch costs.Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 14 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). 3.3. Platinum Group Metals Markets Demand for platinum and other PGMs will continue to be very strong, and under some scenarios, demand may even outstrip known terrestrial reserves. The global platinum market was worth about $5.5 billion in 2003 with the two largest components by far being automotive ($2.7 billion) and jewelry ($2 billion). The volume demand for platinum by industry segment is shown in Figure 8. Figure 9. Platinum Demand by Application, 1994-2003 (In Kilograms) Source: Johnson Matthey 2004. The growing number of automobiles and the potential large-scale adoption of fuel cell technology are likely to drive significant growth in demand for platinum and other platinum group metals over the next twenty years. The platinum jewelry market continues to grow rapidly as well, fueled significantly by growing demand in Asia. 38 In addition to supplementing the traditional platinum supply, opportunities may exist to exploit the unique quality of ultra-pure asteroid-derived platinum to market jewelry and other precious objects made from it at premium prices. According to a British government study, 39 even without full-scale fuel cell adoption, the transportation industry uses a significant portion of the world’s PGM output. As of 2002, the automotive industry used about 71 metric tons of platinum and palladium annually, equal to 20 percent of global production. This is expected to increase with more stringent pollution controls on diesel automobile engines in Europe and North America. The petroleum industry uses platinum in the catalytic cracking (breaking down of heavy hydrocarbons into lighter ones) of hydrocarbons in refineries. The electronics industry is using increasing amounts of platinum and palladium in the manufacture of hard disk drives and capacitors. In the electronics-related glass industry, demand for platinum is accelerating because it is a required in the production of liquid crystal displays. The chemical industry uses platinum as a catalyst to lower the energy required for a wide range of chemical reactions, such as those used to produce silicone. The "other" category above includes applications such as platinum fillings, spark plugs, pacemakers, catheters, and many other items that require a high-temperature-resistant or a corrosion-resistant metal.Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 15 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). Platinum prices have remained close to historic highs over the past two years and are expected to remain strong. Current high platinum prices (e.g., $872/oz on May 2, 2005) highlight the critical impact that a supply/demand imbalance can have on price. 40 Increasing demand from Chinese jewelry market has been driven by China’s economic expansion since the mid 1990s. Increasing demand from transportation is due to more stringent emissions controls on diesel vehicles combined with growing market penetration of diesel vehicles in Europe, and anticipated higher auto demand due to economic recovery as well as to fuel cell adoption in the longer term. In addition, mutual funds have increased their investment in platinum. 41 As the same time as demand remains strong and growing, mine expansion efforts are not meeting published company goals. The strong rand has inhibited new capital investment in South Africa. Meanwhile, an oversupply of palladium and other PGM byproducts has reduced margins. 42 Fuel cell adoption may ultimately become the most important dynamic in the platinum market. Platinum is critical to fuel cell performance because it is critical to achieving the required levels of fuel cell power density and efficiency. It is essential to the catalysis of anodic and cathodic reactions in the stack. It is important to the catalysis of reforming, shift, and preferential oxidation reactions in the fuel processor. The fuel cell industry's demand for platinum and other PGMs is expected to eventually dwarf all other sectors and will place an incredible strain on the supply of platinum and the environment. Just as O’Neill 43 justified investment in the development of his massive L5 space colonies with the need to construct space solar power satellites (SSPS) to meet the world’s growing energy needs, exploitation of asteroid resources in part be justified by the desire to find new, more environmentally friendly ways to meet our energy needs in the face of fossil fuel depletion. One step that can be taken to address growing fossil fuel demand is to shift from a petroleum economy to a hydrogen economy, where the gasoline internal combustion is replaced by hydrogen fuel cells. However, one potentially serious roadblock to this shift is the requirement for platinum as a catalyst in fuel cells, 44 with limited platinum reserves and high platinum production costs may slow or even halt fuel cell adoption (Figure 10).Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 16 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). Figure 10. Potential Impact of Fuel Cell Adoption on Platinum Supply and Demand Note: Total demand includes transportation, jewellery, industrial applications, and stationary fuel cell power generation. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “Platinum Availability and Economics for PEMFC Commercialization,” DE-FC04-01AL67601 (December 2003). Many studies suggest that widespread fuel-cell adoption could rapidly deplete global platinum reserves. For example, a September 2003 study 45 on potential platinum requirements for hydrogen fuel cells produced for the UK Department of Transport supports the case that we may not have enough platinum to enable a shift to a hydrogen economy. A more recent US Department of Energy study 46 suggests that in some scenarios a shift to a hydrogen economy might put severe strains on global platinum reserves. However, the DOE study suggests that platinum depletion may not be as significant a problem under some slower fuel cell adoption scenarios. Other studies have echoed these findings. A Swedish study found that “[i]n the baseline scenario, the demand for primary platinum in the 21st century amounts to 156 [billion grams], and current reserves and identified resources of platinum would be depleted in the 2050’s and 2060’s, respectively.” 47 Meanwhile, Torn and Das found that under the worst case scenario, half of known PGM reserves will be exhausted before mid-century. This scenario is characterized by a high demand for new vehicles in the developing countries and high penetration of reformer-equipped fuel cell vehicles with relatively high amounts of PGMs. 48 Borgwardt calculated that unrestricted US fleet conversion to fuel cell vehicles would require 66 years and 10,800 tons of platinum. If US platinum consumption remains at its current level of 16% of annual world production, fleet conversion would require 146 years and 15,200 tons of platinum. “These results imply that, without alternative catalysts, fuel cells alone cannot adequately address the issue facing the current system of road transport.” 49 Based on the findings of these studies, analysts can differ on whether a full-scale shift to a hydrogen economy is possible given current terrestrial platinum reserves. What is confirmed by these studies, however, is that platinum is a scarce resource on Earth thatProfitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 17 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). will continue to be extremely valuable for the foreseeable future. This makes platinum an ideal candidate for space-based production and return to Earth for sale. 3.4. Scientific Data and Sample Return Scientific payloads and sample returns are complimentary to primary mission and can be easily incorporated into mission design. Potential customers include academic and research institutes as well as government agencies. The initial design proposed here calls for a set of landers with the ability to collect extensive data both from orbit around the target asteroid and multiple surface locations, as well as to deliver multiple ejectable science payloads and return dozens of sample sets for multiple customers. Sales of scientific data sets includes the ability to purchase data sets or buy space on the vehicle for instruments and ejectable payloads. The design calls for the potential to deliver dozens of sample sets from the asteroid in combination with the data sets and other detailed contextual data. The concept of selling scientific data sets and the ability to fly instruments and ejectable payloads to a target asteroid is not new. In the late 1990s, Space Development Corporation (SpaceDev), a San Diego-based space systems start-up, proposed a mission called Near Earth Asteroid Prospector (NEAP) for which it offered these services at a fixed price. SpaceDev’s NEAP proposal reportedly had 6 or 7 potential customers signed up. SpaceDev’s NEAP commercial price list line items ranged from a low of $10 million for an ejectable experiment, to $12 million for instruments integrated into the spacecraft, to a high of $15 million for science datasets returned by experiments financed and owned by SpaceDev. SpaceDev estimated that it had to fly five or six $10 million ejectable payloads, or five $12 million integrated payloads, or four datasets at $15 million each, or any combination that would produce total revenues of around $60 million. One factor helping to make this concept viable at the time was the ability for organizations wishing to buy sample sets or space on the craft to use NASA Opportunity mission funding. At the time, NASA’s Dr. Carl Pilcher confirmed that SpaceDev’s NEAP could be considered a Mission of Opportunity by those organizations, enabling them to access government funding to participate in the NEAP mission. 50 Sample masses returned must be sufficient to determine the major physical properties of the samples like density, porosity, and mechanical strength. These properties must be determined in order to understand the geophysical properties and internal structures of asteroids. A considerable amount of research was conducted in the 1960s and 1970s to determine the minimum mass required for an accurate determination of bulk compositions of chondrites, with an often-quoted mass being 10 grams. 51 If several laboratories are to independently make such determinations, then the required sample masses will be several tens of grams. An additional consideration is to assure that there is adequate mass to determine the major structural components in a statistically significant way. For example, what are the mineral and phase proportions and what are the chondrule and metal grain size distributions? For many years, these parameters have been considered crucial in understanding meteorites. Such considerations lead to the requirement that each sample must be approximately100 grams. 52Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 18 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). Is the scientific data and sample market viable today? The SpaceDev experience suggests that it might be a realistic option to help offset the costs of an initial mission. Certainly, it is very complimentary of the primary mission, since much of the instrumentation required to deliver these services is necessary for the primary mission. Scientific data and sample returns from a single mission could generate significant incremental revenue. Based on the SpaceDev experience and the comparative costs for more traditional missions it would seem realistic to price sample returns at $7 to $10 million each for as many as ten sets, as well as $3 to $5 million for various data sets. Conservatively this could generate $50 to $100 million in incremental revenues, offsetting much of the cost of the development and launch of a mining mission. 3.5. Entertainment and Sponsorships In the late 1990s, having observed many Internet ventures that seemed to be supported by little more than advertising and marketing arrangements, several space entrepreneurs set out to build space ventures supported only by advertising, licensing, and marketing. 53 Needless to say, none of these ventures made it even as far as the contemporary dot-coms that eventually collapsed under their own weight as well. The lesson of this experience is not that there are no revenue streams to be derived from savvy marketing and licensing efforts, but that one should not attempt to build an entire space venture on this revenue model alone. The fact is that entertainment, advertising, licensing, and sponsorships represent a potentially lucrative means of offsetting a portion of initial mission costs. In addition, they provide a valuable marketing tool for the venture that can attract investors and other contributors. Sponsorship is the financial or in-kind support of an activity, used primarily to reach specified business goals. Sponsorship should not be confused with advertising. Advertising is considered a quantitative medium, whereas sponsorship is considered a qualitative medium. It promotes a company in association with the sponsee. The sponsorship market, which reached $25 billion globally in 2001, could clearly be an important source of publicity and funding for emerging space markets. While the majority of the market (nearly 70 percent) is dedicated to sporting events, the educational and arts sponsorship markets collectively constitute nearly $3 billion in revenues. 54 Specific sponsorship opportunities consist of agreements by which brands may be associated with the mission and potentially include naming rights, various advertising placements and even the delivery of logos and objects to the target asteroid. Related to these sponsorship rights are advertising agreements, through which revenue derived from sales of advertising space on the spacecraft, delivery of branded materials to the target object, and use of video in advertising. Technology companies may be the most attractive targets for licensing and sponsorship deals, although a broad approach to identification of potential partners should be taken. LunaCorp, for example, has attempted to finance various robotic lunar mission concepts through licensing and sponsorship deals with the likes of Mitsubishi and Radio Shack. 55Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 19 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). Documentary film rights represent another potential source of revenue. According to the IMAX Corporation, the large-format space trilogy (The Dream is Alive, Blue Planet, and Destiny in Space) has grossed more than $250 million and has been seen by more than 70 million people worldwide. 56 At least seven other large format films deal directly with spaceflight or space science, some of which include footage shot in space from the Shuttle, Mir, the ISS, and various space probes. Media rights opportunities might include sale of exclusive rights to what may be the first high-definition video footage ever returned from deep space. Another form of licensing involves licensing of the likeness of the NEO Miner platform or an ARPS Lander model as toys. NASA has licensed its Mars Exploration Rovers to Danish toy maker Lego, for example, and has signed a number of licensing deals for toys and models of the rovers. 57 3.6. Longer-Term Markets The key longer-term markets are those logical on-orbit markets that will inevitably emerge but which lack the infrastructure to be viable today. These potential orbital markets for NEO resources may be worth hundreds of billions within twenty to thirty years, but as noted above, it will be necessary to invest in orbital substantial new infrastructure before these markets truly become viable. Volatiles. Volatiles may be the easiest products to extract and process, and the potential future orbital market could be enormous. Specific markets include water for use by the International Space Station and for future manned missions, rocket fuel for use in orbital tugs and other spacecraft, and feedstock to supply orbital fuel depots for refueling a wide range of craft in Earth orbit. As noted above, an infrastructure for processing and delivering NEO-derived fuel to orbit would fundamentally alter the economics of space travel beyond LEO. Early uses of asteroidal volatiles may be to provide in situ production of carbon monoxide for use in metal refining and potentially to produce rocket fuel for returning processed resources to Earth. Steam rockets using water derived from NEOs have been proposed 58 and advances in steam rocket technology might make this option feasible. 59 It costs about $10,000 to deliver a kilogram of cargo to low-Earth orbit (LEO). As a result, systems studies have shown that the most expensive part of transferring payloads to geo-synchronous-orbit (GEO) is the fuel. A cryogenic propellant production and storage depot stationed in LEO could lower the cost of missions to GEO and beyond. In 2000 and 2001, studies 60 were conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center on the technical requirements and commercial potential for propellant production depots in low-Earth-orbit (LEO) to support future commercial, NASA, and other missions. Results indicated that propellant production depots appear to be technically feasible given continued technology development and that there is a substantial, growing market that depots could support.Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources Page 20 2005 Gerlach Space Systems LLC. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License (Attribution & Share Alike). Semiconductors. Semiconductor elements represent another potentially significant orbital market. Semiconductors include elements such as phosphorus, gallium, germanium, arsenic, selenium, indium, antimony, tellurium. They are valuable for orbital fabrication of very large thin-film photovoltaic arrays. Production and return to Earth orbit could be a key enabler for a space solar power satellite (SSPS) industry. While the price per kilogram is much lower on Earth than for platinum and other PGMs, the cost of launching these materials into space makes space-based production and delivery to Earth orbit in support of an SSPS industry economically attractive. 61