Three wcrp modelling groups: Working Group on Coupled Modelling (wgcm)

Three WCRP modelling groups:

• Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM)

• Working Group on Seasonal to interannual Prediction (WGSIP)

• Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)

WMO Global Producing Centres

Land Surface: the GLACE and GLACE2 experiments:

• Land Surface: the GLACE and GLACE2 experiments:

• Soil moisture experiments in seasonal mode

• Led by R Koster

Max Planck Institute MPI-ESM (Steffen Tietsche and Dirk Notz) UKMO GloSea4 (Arribas et al., 2011, 2012) Meteo-France CNRM CM5.1 (Voldoire et al., 2012, Chevallier et al., 2012) CCCma CanSIPS (Merryfield et al., 2012) - 9 members for 2007 and 1996 - with and without sea ice initialised according to observed extents - 1 November and 1 August initialisation for Winter and Autumn

Difference in Sea Ice due to Initialisation

Autumn Near Surface Temperature Response

Autumn Geopotential Height Response (@ 500hPa)

Winter Near Surface Temperature Response

Winter Geopotential Height Response (@ 500hPa)

Summary

High Top Hindcasts

• High Top Hindcasts

• Parallel to WGSIP-CHFP
• Extended models
• Initialising extra atmosphere, better represented stratosphere

What are we expecting to see? Analysis of UKMO stratosphere resolving hindcasts:

What are we expecting to see? Analysis of UKMO stratosphere resolving hindcasts:

What are we expecting to see? Analysis of UKMO stratosphere resolving hindcasts:

What are we expecting to see? Impact of stratosphere on surface forecasts

Summary

Decadal Forecast Exchange

• Decadal Forecast Exchange

• Doug Smith, Adam Scaife and the decadal prediction community….

• Many groups are now developing decadal predictions

• Key experiments done and analysed for CMIP5

• What about real time predictions?

• 15th session of the WMO Commission for Climatology recommended action to start the coordination and exchange of decadal predictions

• Proposal went out to various groups to exchange decadal prediction information

• research exercise – we can learn a lot from this

• prevent over-confidence from a single model

• equal access, ownership and recognition

We had an overwhelmingly positive response:

• We had an overwhelmingly positive response:

• Uni. Tokyo – Kimoto Masahide

• MRI – Masayoshi Ishii

• SMHI – Klaus Wyser,Colin Jones

• KNMI – Wilco Hazeleger, Bert Wouters

• IC3 – Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Virginie Guemas

• GFDL – Tony Rosatti

• MPI – Daniela Matei, Wolfgang Muller, Holger Pohlman

• RSMAS – Ben Kirtman

• CCCMA – George Boer, Bill Merryfield

• UKMO-Hadley – Doug Smith, Adam Scaife

• READING UNI – Ed Hawkins, Chun Kit Ho

• NRL – Judith Lean, David Rind

• NOAA – Arun Kumar

We are exchanging very basic quantities:

• We are exchanging very basic quantities:

• Global Annual Mean Temperature

• One file for each year, each member

• Exchanged once per year around November

• Equal ownership

• Example diagnostics:

Surface temperature: 2012-2016 relative to 1971-2000

Surface temperature: 2012-2016 effect of initialisation

SUMMARY

• SUMMARY

• Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

• Doug M. Smith, Adam A. Scaife, George J. Boer, Mihaela Caian, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Virginie Guemas, Ed Hawkins, Wilco Hazeleger, Leon Hermanson, Chun Kit Ho, Masayoshi Ishii, Viatcheslav Kharin, Masahide Kimoto, Ben Kirtman, Judith Lean, Daniela Matei, William J. Merryfield, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Anthony Rosati, Bert Wouters and Klaus Wyser.

• Climate Dynamics, 2012.

• See also IPCC AR5…