Table 2. Aid, debt and economic growth
Full sample
Minimum four periods
No poor performance
No good performance
1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
Log
GDP per
capita
-625.745***
(128.739)
-715.502***
(132.115)
-651.199***
(147.834)
-801.623***
(158.077)
-484.049***
(122.917)
-531.051***
(123.283)
-258.923**
(125.869)
-319.083**
(139.193)
Investment rate
19.977***
(4.839)
16.776***
(4.946)
22.664***
(5.991)
18.228***
(6.162)
15.799***
(4.048)
13.285***
(4.166)
7.411
(4.848)
6.833
(4.881)
Government
consumption
2.309
(2.852)
5.024*
(3.026)
2.447
(4.423)
3.506
(4.361)
-.917
(2.475)
1.003
(2.604)
2.976
(2.418)
4.045
(2.638)
External debt
-3.452***
(.866)
-4.819***
(1.025)
-3.127***
(1.037)
-5.698***
(1.481)
-2.923***
(.822)
-4.096***
(.979)
-2.073***
(.783)
-2.771***
(1.003)
Foreign aid
12.484***
(4.372)
7.477
(4.781)
9.334*
(5.549)
4.087
(5.869)
4.179
(4.208)
.316
(4.532)
8.739**
(3.867)
6.744
(4.339)
Debt*aid
.033**
(.014)
.091**
(.038)
.025**
(.012)
.013
(.013)
Observations
199
199
156
156
179
179
178
178
Countries
38
38
27
27
38
38
36
36
R
squared
between
.049
.025
.284
.286
.019
.006
.087
.067
R
squared
within
.379
.403
.399
.426
.418
.438
.192
.199
F
statistic
8.35
8.38
7.88
7.97
8.50
8.38
2.84
2.69
F-test
joint sign.
12.169***
8.109***
4.327***
2.905***
Note: fixed
effects estimates; all regressions time dummies; standard errors in parenthesis. *** (**) [*] denote significance at p<.01 (p<.05) [p<.10]. Poor performance
is defined as observations with a growth rate below -4.67%; good performance is defined as observations with growth rates above +3.68%. The F-test in the bottom
row is of joint significance of foreign aid and the interaction term.
20
21
Table 3. Aid,
debt and investments
Full sample
Minimum four periods
No poor performance
No good performance
1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
Log GDP per
capita
2.829*
(1.654)
1.715
(1.721)
1.939
(1.815)
.976
(1.908)
3.652*
(1.910)
2.413
(1.982)
3.727**
(1.824)
1.828
(1.933)
Openness
.124***
(.012)
.116***
(.013)
.119***
(.015)
.115***
(.015)
.124***
(.013)
.115***
(.014)
.110***
(.016)
.107***
(.015)
Real investment
price
-2.721***
(.489)
-2.679***
(.484)
-3.197***
(.522)
-3.072***
(.525)
-2.864***
(.550)
-2.858***
(.543)
-2.779***
(.496)
-2.809***
(.486)
Government
consumption
.129***
(.034)
.164***
(.037)
.208***
(.046)
.211***
(.046)
.118***
(.038)
.158***
(.042)
.129***
(.033)
.177***
(.038)
External debt
.008
(.012)
-.006
(.014)
.012
(.012)
-.010
(.019)
.007
(.015)
-.006
(.016)
.004
(.013)
-.016
(.015)
Foreign aid
.056
(.054)
-.016
(.064)
.009
(.063)
-.024
(.067)
.031
(.065)
-.058
(.078)
.044
(.056)
-.052
(.066)
Debt*aid/100
.049**
(.024)
.069
(.044)
.055**
(.027)
.064**
(.025)
Observations
189
189
154
154
170
170
173
173
Countries
33
33
27
27
33
33
33
33
R
squared
between
.555
.566
.529
.593
.592
.605
.507
.535
R
squared
within
.608
.619
.664
.671
.619
.631
.509
.533
F
statistic
18.63
17.93
20.87
19.56
16.89
16.31
11.04
11.14
F-test
joint sign.
6.156***
8.101***
6.040***
7.673***
Note: fixed effects estimates; all regressions time dummies; standard errors in parenthesis. *** (**) [*] denote significance at p<.01 (p<.05) [p<.10]. The interaction
term is given as aid/100 to make coefficients of a size to fit the format of the table. Poor performance is defined as observations with a growth rate below -4.67%; good
performance is defined as observations with growth rates above +3.68%. The F-test in the bottom row is of joint significance of foreign aid and the interaction term.