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The Federal Panel (CEAA, 2006) was established as part of the process for Assessing the Eastmain-1-A and
Rupert Diversion Project, a part of the James Bay hydro project. In its final report, the panel recognized
the significance and the challenges associated with the cumulative impact issue. Recommendation #34 to
the federal government provides an important reference point:
“To the federal government the Panel recommends
34. The issue of cumulative effects affects several jurisdictions, including the federal government, the
provinces of Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba, the territory of Nunavut as well as several government
departments linked to these various levels of government. Assessing cumulative effects therefore
goes far beyond the responsibility of a single proponent. Within this context, it would be imperative
for the federal government to implement a large scale research and monitoring program for the
James Bay and Hudson Bay Ecosystems. Such a program could be coordinated by an independent
body whose structure is akin to that of the International Joint Commission. Such a structure could
foster the pooling of efforts and resources of all government agencies, as well as those of the
academic community, which is already working on various problems related to the cumulative effects
in this sector. Whatever the chosen structure, it would be essential for the various Aboriginal
communities affected to be stakeholders in this research and monitoring program, in order to
integrate into it traditional knowledge and local expertise.”
Sustained effort involving monitoring, research, surveys and modeling as well as community-based
observations can all help fill important gaps in our understanding of how the Hudson Bay Complex
functions and how it is likely to respond under different climate and development scenarios. Such
sustained effort, perhaps carried out under a mechanism such as that proposed by the CEAA Federal
Panel, would help to facilitate cooperation amongst the many stakeholders. It would also help to instill a
greater appreciation of the cumulative effects of decisions and actions that, considered together and in
combination, are affecting the Hudson Bay system.
Such a sustained effort would also provide a stronger foundation for addressing some very fundamental
questions concerning the future of the Hudson Bay Complex. We know that the duration of the seasonal
ice cover is, on average, weeks less than it was only a few decades ago. There is every reason to expect
this trend to less ice cover will continue, and while it seems obvious that ice-dependent species, most
notably polar bears, will be negatively affected, there are many regional and system-wide questions that
cannot now be answered. The following examples are illustrative of two of the basic and related questions
that do not, as of now, have clear answers.
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First, will reductions in the duration and volume of ice cover have a net positive impact on the biological
productivity of the system? What is change in biological productivity likely to mean for the marine food
webs and for species that have been of cultural and economic importance to inhabitants of the region? It
seems reasonable to predict that lengthening the open-water season would negatively affect ice algae
and the ice-associated food web that is based on this food source. At the same time things are rarely
simple. Lee et al. (2011) report that the melting of sea ice can, in some instances, create new niches for
ice algae.
Would the additional solar energy entering the system lead to enough primary production by algae in the
water column to more than compensate for this loss, and if so, would this primary production be readily
available to other components of the food web? Using a food chain model, Hoover (2010) has projected,
that the loss of ice algae will have a large, mostly negative, on the system. Slagstad, Ellingsen and
Wassmann (2011) concluded that the loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean would usually result in higher
primary production and, sometimes, in higher secondary production. It is also certain that some species
would be negatively affected by a warmer system, whereas others, including those that are not presently
part of the system, would benefit. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to predict the future biodiversity and
species composition of a warmer system.
There is clear evidence that, at least for the late summer and fall, primary production in Hudson Bay is
nutrient-limited because of the stratification of the water column (Ferland, Gosselin, & Starr, 2011), and
the lack of significant upwelling of nutrient-rich waters from below the surface mixed layer. That raises
the question of whether reduced duration of ice cover will lead to significantly less stratification in the
system and hence greater availability of nutrients for primary production. Would greater accessibility to
surface winds, less ice melt added to the surface each melt season and less brine rejection and convection
of dense water to deeper layers during the ice season all interact to make the system less stratified and
less nutrient limiting?
Second, are recent and reasonably anticipated changes in the freshwater budget of the Hudson Bay
Complex important to the overall functioning of the system including such things as stratification and
circulation, brine rejection and dense water convection, and nutrient limitation and biological
productivity? Will the regulation of rivers for hydroelectricity and the shifting of runoff to winter months
have more than a local impact on the marine ecosystem, or will these shifts, especially if accompanied by
increased annual runoff and reductions in sea-ice melt, have a major impact on the functioning of the
system? Will shifts in the timing, nature and quantity of freshwater entering the Labrador Sea have much
impact on deep-water convection in the Labrador Sea or on biological productivity of the Labrador and
Newfoundland shelf? Scientists who have documented and/or modelled the freshwater budget of the