April 22nd-28th 2023 Ukraine’s game plan
particular spot, Russia might detect those
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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- Its Western allies want success—but not too much
particular spot, Russia might detect those preparations and shore up its lines accord ingly. That puts a premium on deception, notes Mick Ryan, a retired Australian ma jorgeneral. Ukraine will have to conceal troop concentrations, artillery positions, headquarters and logistics hubs. “It could also mean we will see lots of smaller mini offensives rather than a couple of large ones,” says Mr Ryan, “just to confuse the Russian targeting cycle and to deceive them about Ukraine’s main effort.” If Ukraine can achieve surprise, the next question is whether it can punch through Russian defences and send more forces quickly through the gap. It will need mobile air defences to keep Russian planes at bay; it is not clear if it has enough. It will have to cross rivers and minefields—obsta cles that have consumed entire Russian brigades in the east—as well as a formida Its Western allies want success—but not too much → Also in this section 28 Ukraine’s inflatable weapons 29 Italy struggles with EU cash 30 Greece’s election 31 Charlemagne: Annalena Baerbock 012 28 The Economist April 22nd 2023 Europe ble network of Russian trenches and forti fications (see map). “There is no military endeavour that is more difficult to plan, or chestrate and execute than combined arms obstacle breaching,” says Mr Ryan. In theory, precision artillery can quick ly take out prepared defences, says Ben Barry of IISS , a thinktank in London, pointing to Britain’s use of such systems to destroy bunkers in Afghanistan. But that requires expert synchronisation of artil lery, infantry and armour so that troops ad vance neither too early, while the defences are intact, nor too late, when Russia’s rear echelon has reinforced a barrage’s site. To date, Ukraine’s army has largely con ducted sequential operations—first artil lery fire, then a ground advance—rather than these more demanding coordinated ones, says FranzStefan Gady, a military analyst. That is in part because of rigid So vietstyle commanders and a lack of com binedarms training at scale, he says. Im proving Ukraine’s command and control has been a priority for Western officials helping to train and advise Ukrainian gen erals in Germany over recent weeks. The timing of an offensive is also un certain. Weather is one factor. American intelligence analysts reckon that the ground in eastern Ukraine will remain muddy until early May. Kit is another. A third of the Westernsupplied brigades are not due to be fully equipped and trained until the end of April. Ukraine’s general staff could launch a staged attack, with some brigades thrown in later as they ar rive, but might choose to “save it all up for a big bang”, says Mr Barry. This could maxi mise the pressure on Russian defences. Waiting for too long could also let Russia dig in further and replenish ammunition. Yüklə 5,71 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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