038
Apr. 2015
for Euro-area creditors are still feasible. In fact, the
average maturity could be
extended beyond the current
30 years. Also, the lending rate on the European loans
could be reduced even further. All of this would not
translate into more money for Greece to spend right
now, but it would greatly improve the sustainability of
the debt burden further.
Likely financial and economic disruption
An exit of Greece from the euro would cause exten-
sive financial and economic disruption, with significant
negative impacts on its domestic economy, prompting
bank runs and capital flights from Greece. Capital con-
trols would have to be enacted, which could not then
be lifted easily, as shown in the case of Cyprus. A newly
issued Greek currency would collapse in value, leading
to high inflation and at the same time forcing banks
and businesses with large foreign currency debts into
bankruptcy. Furthermore, Greece would be cut out of
the market for a certain time and borrowing costs for
Greek businesses and society would skyrocket, con-
tributing even further to another recessionary develop-
ment.
Compared to 2012, the risk of financial contagion
to other euro area countries is less acute, with the ECB
now acting as lender of last resort, a healthier financial
system and a new European governance structure set
in place. However, a likely massive depreciation of a
new Greek currency, followed by a potential default of
Greek banks and non-banks
would endanger private
sector claims on Greece from all over the Euro area,
on top of the official losses, which would have to be ac-
counted for. Also, the long-term political effects of the
irreversibility of the Euro should not be underestimat-
ed. This would mean that the euro area has failed to
establish the tools necessary to guarantee the survival
of its weakest members.
To conclude, an exit is unlikely to help the Greek
economy much, as exports do not react considerably
to changes in wage costs due to the sclerotic economy.
Instead, it is in the interest of both Greece and its eu-
ro-area partners to find a comprehensive agreement
that would avoid default and exit.
Sources: AMECO Autumn 2014 Forecast and Eurostat’s quarterly national accounts dataset.
Note: Nominal change in exports is given as % of 2014 GDP. Nominal change in wages calculated as nominal % change between Q4 2007
and Q1 2014.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-
5
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Greece
Estonia
Ireland
Latvia
Netherlands
Belgium
Portugal
Slovenia
Spain
Germany
Austria
France
Italy
Finland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Guntram B. Wolff
Director of Bruegel
Nominal change in wages 2007-2014
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