China, Europe and the Netherlands: Opportunity Is Knocking at Our Doors
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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- Capitalism and Society
- Edmund S. Phelps
- Twenty years of rising leverage and its end
- The Debt-Based-Growth Model Comes to an End By Gabriel Stein
Apr. 2015 029 WWW.BOAOREVIEW.COM WWW.BOAOREVIEW.COM Jan. 2015 033 1126 IAB, Columbia University, 420 West 118th Street, New York, NY 10027 | www.capitalism.columbia.edu | 212-854-2060 THE CENTER ON Capitalism and Society AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY M E M B E R S Edmund Phelps, Amar Bhidé Patrick Bolton Guillermo Calvo Merritt Fox Roman Frydman Ronald Gilson Bruce Greenwald Glenn Hubbard Richard Nelson Janusz Ordover Andrzej Rapaczynski Richard Robb Jeffrey Sachs Saskia Sassen Amartya Sen Richard Sennett Robert Shiller Joseph Stiglitz Sidney Winter F O R E I G N M E M B E R S Massamiliano Amarante Philippe Aghion Saifedean H. Ammous Ping Chen Howard Davies Sheila Dow Jean-Paul Fitoussi Dominique Foray Hian Teck Hoon John Kay Esa Saarinen Juan V. Sola Jianguo Wang Gylfi Zoega J U N I O R F E L LO W Raicho Bojilov V I S I T I N G S C H O L A R Saifedean H. Ammous A D V I S O R Y B O A R D Patricia Armendariz Robert Z. Aliber Sir Harold Evans Chen Fashu Francis Finlay Robert E. Kiernan Karlheinz Muhr Robert Mundell Alfredo F. Navarrete Richard Robb Leo M. Tilman S I S T E R I N S T I T U T I O N S Tor Vergata Economics Foundation Center on Law and Economics, University of Buenos Aires New Huadu Economics and Management Institute The Center on Capitalism and Society brings together leading scholars in economics, business, finance, and law to answer basic questions about the capitalist economies of the modern era—their performance and workings. How did the well-functioning ones get their dynamism, how did they promote economic inclusion, how did the imperfect knowledge on which they operate open them to booms as well as slumps, and how did they transform a growing number of jobs into problem-solving activities that are fulfilling in their own right? How did the malfunctioning ones lose their dynamism? Until economics is grounded on the basic character of modern economies— imperfect knowledge, uncertainty, and new ideas for speculation and innovation—it limits and distorts our view. Our goal is to evaluate capitalism in a rational, enlightened fashion. With this perspective, the Center works to identify economic policies, institutional changes and cultural attitudes to generate greater economic dynamism and greater inclusion in the United States and across the world. “ It is time for economics to go beyond the mainstream models of markets to a serious study of capitalism—its dynamism and stability, its capacity to spark innovation at the grassroots and promote flourishing of individuals from all strata of society. ” Edmund S. Phelps 2006 Nobel Laureate in Economics Director, The Center on Capitalism and Society Dean, New Huadu Business School 博鳌观察第十一期英文-三校.indd 33 2015.1.4 12:30:26 PM P01-96-BAGC3-R5.indd 29 15-3-5 下午10:36 030 Apr. 2015 O ver the past two decades, output growth increasingly became dependent on debt. In many countries, this became unsustainable and came to an end during the Great Recession. As a result, the world may be facing a secular change, away from debt-based growth. Some of the consequences of such a shift would involve lower long-term inter- est rates; a change in the role of banks; and possibly shifting housing patterns. Secular changes tend to take place over long periods. Nevertheless, some of the trends involved are already occurring and affect finan- cial markets, in particular the slower growth of credit. Twenty years of rising leverage and its end For much of the early post-war period, the growth of non-bank private sector debt, broadly speaking, kept pace with the growth of nominal GDP. Measured as the incremental debt/GDP ratio on a five-year moving av- erage, American households and companies borrowed one dollar for each extra dollar of GDP. To put it differ- ently, each dollar of extra GDP was based on one dollar of extra debt in the non-bank private sector. This trend was fairly stable until the 1980s. In the era of junk bonds and high leverage on Wall Street, the incremental debt/GDP ratio rose above $1.50, peak- ing at $1.67 in the five years to 1989. However, in the 1990s, the ‘return to shareholder value’ brought the ratio back down to around $1 again. But, from 1994, the ratio began to climb sharply, passing $2 and $2.50, eventually peaking at $3.20 in Q2 2009. By that stage, the debt-based growth model had already collapsed and the Great Recession erupted. Deleveraging has since reversed the process, with the public sector being the main accumulator of new debt. But there is a major difference between different sectors’ debt. Governments do not have to repay debt, provided that their capacity to service the debt is perceived to be unimpaired. By contrast, households and companies have to repay debt, and, in the case of households, from current income. Their debt capacity is therefore more limited. 0404 The Debt-Based-Growth Model Comes to an End By Gabriel Stein Macro Economy The world may be facing a secular change, away from debt-based output growth of over two decades. Some of the consequences of such a shift would involve lower long-term interest rates, a change in the role of banks, and possibly shifting housing patterns. P01-96-BAGC3-R5.indd 30 15-3-5 下午10:36 Yüklə 19,38 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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