Disaster information: a bibliography

ID: 1790

Au: Gardner, Cynthia A; Casadevall, Thomas J; Robertson, Richard E. A.

Ti: SO₂ emissions during the phreatic phase of volcanic unrest in the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 33.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: On 18, July 1995, after almost three years of irregularly increasing seismicity, phreatic explosions opened a vent at the Soufriere Hills volcano, about 4 km east of the capital city of Plymouth, Montserrat, West Indies. A programme of primarily airborne gas measurements using the COSPEC (correlation spectrometer) method to assess SO2 emissions was initiated to help monitor the unrest. Excellent logistical support allowed almost daily flights from late July to early September, 1995. The SO2 data correlated well with seismic and observational data and helped constrain hypotheses regarding the unrest. These measurements implicated magma in the unrest four months before the first arrival of juvenile material at the surface. COSPEC measurements began on 29, July 1995, a day after phreatic explosions opened a second vent (Vent 2) in English's Crater, an easterly directed breach in the summit of the Soufriere Hills volcano and the site of the youngest volcanic activity on the island. Initial SO2 values of 300100 tonnes per day (t/d) were detected until 4 August 1995 when a value of 800 t/d was measured shortly after a seismic signal, indicative of a steam emission event had occurred. This heralded the 5-6 August 1995 seismic swarm which was interpreted to be the manifestation of magma being intruded to shallow levels. Maximum COSPEC measurements during the swarm were 1200t/d. This value fell to about 200t/d after the swarm was over, and over the next two weeks COSPEC measurements held steady at about 150t/d. A second seismic swarm (13 August, 1995) centered on a complex of older domes northwest of the Soufriere Hills and had no effect on SO2 emissions. This is consistent with the interpretation that this second seismic swarm was due to crustal readjustments and not to another batch of magma moving to shallow levels. On 21 August 1995, SO2 values fell abruptly to background levels after a third period of intense shallow seismicity. The decrease in SO2 was coincident with an abrupt decrease in tremor. From this period until 02 September, 1995 when COSPEC measurements ceased, SO2 levels only deviated from background levels briefly (and then only slightly above background) immediately after a third vent opened on 27 August 1995.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1791

Au: Swanson, Grace; Stephens, George.

Ti: Satellite monitoring of volcanic hazards to aircraft.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, Hazards and Hazard Management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies. Dept. of Geography and Geology. Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 22.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Ash clouds from erupting volcanoes pose serious hazards to aircraft flying through them. Environmental satellite data offer a means of detecting volcanic eruptions in order to issue timely warnings. Ash plumes may be detected by visible or infrared sensors during daylight hours, and by infrared sensors at night. Ash drift direction may be correlated with radiosonde wind data to estimate ash cloud altitudes. In response to several situations where jet aircraft flew into the ash cloud of an erupting volcano and experienced severe damage, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the U.S. Geological Survey have formally implemented the Volcano Hazards Alert Plan, a cooperative, operational system to coordinate information on ongoing eruptions and issue warnings of the presence of air-borne ash to aviation interests. The plan is activated whenever an eruption occurs which may endanger aircraft within U.S. Flight Information Regions (FIRs). The Synoptic Analysis Branch of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) provides information at 3 to 12 hour intervals on the location and time of the eruption, estimated height and horizontal distribution of the ash cloud and estimated direction of movement to the National Weather Service and the FAA, which transmit appropriate warnings to aviators. Currently under development at NESDIS are procedures to provide more timely access to high resolution Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer imagery, and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer data using modern communication links, and workstation technology.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1792

Au: Alvarez, Leonardo.

Ti: Seismic hazard and seismic zoning of Jamaica: a preliminary approach.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 5.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: General features of seismicity of North Central Caribbean region were established from earthquake data. They were used together with regional neotectonic characteristics for delineating main seismic source zones. Seismic hazard assessment in terms of intensity was performed with program SACUDIDI. Initial data (rate of seismicity, intensity attenuation, maximum magnitude, focal depths) were specially prepared or taken from papers or reports. As main results, recurrence periods for different intensities in points of a regular grid were obtained. Seismic zoning was performed, instead of selecting a particular hazard map (intensities for a given recurrence period or given waiting time and probability level), by classification of recurrence periods of different intensities, with the aim of a logical-combinatorial algorithm of non supervised pattern recognition included in system PROGNOSIS. Results -group of points with similar hazard behaviour, characterised by one of them called "holotype" - are presented in a zoning map together with curves of recurrence periods vs. intensity for holotypes.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1793

Au: Ambeh, William B; Miller, Angus; White, Randy; Power, John A.

Ti: Seismicity during the current eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 31.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: The Soufriere Hills volcano, located in southern Montserrat, started erupting on 18 July 1995 after about 400 years of quiescence. The eruption has been going on for almost one year and has moved through an initial phase of phreatic eruptions to one presently dominated by the slow and quiet emplacement of a lightly degassed andesitic lava dome whose over-steepened sides occasionally collapse to produce pyroclastic flows. During the current eruption a broad spectrum of seismic signals, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, long period earth quakes, hybrid earthquakes and tremor, has been recorded by a nine-station seismic network. This network was an upgrade during the first two weeks of the eruption of a pre-eruption network of two permanent and four temporary seismic stations operated by the Seismic Research Unit. To date, more than 50,000 earthquakes have been detected of which more than l1,000 have been located. Most of the located earthquakes place in the area beneath and surrounding the Soufriere Hills volcano at depths in the range 0-8 km. The seismic events have shown both spatial and temporal variations. While the initial (phreatic) phase of the eruptions was dominated by the occurrence of volcano-tectonic earthquakes (mainly as short duration swarms), their numbers decreased considerably after the extrusion of the lava dome. Intense, repetitive, hybrid earthquake swarms generally seem to be associated with periods of increased dome growth while long period events do not seem to show any specific associations. Current seismic activity is dominated by signals attributable to rockfalls from the growing lava dome.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1794

Au: Ambeh, William B; Lynch, Lloyd L.

Ti: Seismicity preceding the current eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 30.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Montserrat is one of the islands forming the inner volcanically active segment of the Lesser Antilles arc. The Soufriere Hills Volcano, located in the southern part of the island, started erupting on 18, July 1995 for the first time since European colonization of the island in 1632. However, during the past 100 years, the seismicity of Montserrat has been dominated by the occurrence of long duration, major earthquake swarms or volcano-seismic crises in 1897-98, 1933-37 and 1966-67. None of these was accompanied by an eruption although there are increased activity at some of the Soufrieres and possible minor ground deformation in the southern part of the island during the 1966-67 episode. Seismicity preceding the 18 July 1995 eruption was dominated by energy release in the form of episodic earthquake swarms. During the period January 1992 to 17, July 1995, eighteen low to moderate intensity earthquake swarms of variable durations ranging from a few hours to several days occurred in Montserrat. In June 1994, because of one of these earthquake sequences which was slightly more intense, the Seismic Research Unit increased the number of seismic stations in Montserrat from the pre-existing two (which were telemetered to Trinidad) to six, with data from five of the stations being recorded on a PC locally, as well as continuing transmission of signals from the original two stations to Trinidad. These swarms are often characterised by a non-stationarity of events within them, i.e., there is clustering of earthquakes into subswarms. Hypocentres calculated for some of these earthquakes yields a spatial distribution of epicentres concentrated in southern Montserrat and focal depths generally less than 20km. However, unlike the major sequences in 1897-98, 1933-37 and 1966-67, no change in the activity rates at the Soufrieres was observed during the recent swarms.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1795

Au: Morrow, Betty Hearn.

Ti: Surviving the second disaster: social changes in the aftermath.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 16.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: The relationship between disaster and social change is an intriguing one. There are obvious ways in which the physical destruction caused by an earthquake or hurricane, as examples, leads to changes in the social structure and culture of a community. Internal factors, such as population loss or redistribution, are likely to result in long-term alterations in its demography and economy. This paper focuses, however, on changes precipitated by external forces in the aftermath. Increasingly people and individuals from all over the world respond to disasters--converging, often with surprising speed, into stricken communities with motives ranging from altruism to avarice. The effects of the infusion of people, ideas, resources and technologies can be profound, particularly on small, relatively isolated communities, such as the islands of the Caribbean. Using case studies from hurricanes Hugo on St. Croix, Andrew in Miami, and Marilyn on St. Thomas, this paper examines several factors, some inherent in the social system itself, others in the nature of the disaster, influencing the extent and ways in which a disaster-struck society is likely to be changed. This leads to speculation about how communities might mitigate against the negative effects of these "second disasters".

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.

ID: 1796

Au: Sergio, Mora C; Jimenez, Oscar; Madrigal, Carlos.

Ti: The Rio Toro landslide dam and its implications on the construction of a hydro-power plant, Costa Rica.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, Hazards and Hazard Management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies. Department of Geography and Geology. Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 16.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: A large landslide occurred during the night of 12-13 June 1992, 700m upstream of the Power House site of Toro 2 hydroelectric project under construction. A combination of factors contributed to the slide of 2.5X10 6m3 pond. The debris dam was composed of 70 percent large rock boulders (columnar lavas, volcanic breccia) several decimeters to decameters in diameter and 30 percent pyroclasts, soils and vegetation debris. The destruction of the dam occurred progressively from June 16 to July 14. By the end of September there were practically no remains of the dam. The debris was carried downstream and aggraded from 20 to 30m the course of the river at the power house site. In September, 1964, the river has re-excavated the course 10-15m. It is estimated that the river will find its former level in 8-10 years. The stability of the slope behind the power house was re-evaluated through field reconnaissances, drill holes, geophysical prospection and calculations. It is estimated that the slope is stable in terms of large slides, but the penstock, powerhouse, bridge and tailrace structures are vulnerable to minor rock falls and floods, to which they will be appropriately protected.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.

ID: 1797

Au: McKinnon, Barbara E; Heath, Warren.

Ti: The analysis of earthwork and slope deterioration from aerial photographs.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 14.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Roads, railways and coastlines are all large scale linear features usually incorporating many earthworks. These earthworks are subject to deterioration and may fail causing serious problems. A significant number of these failures could be prevented if all earthworks were monitored frequently and early signs of deterioration noted so that improvements could be made. Inspections on foot, however, are very costly and time consuming and therefore are rarely undertaken. A technique to monitor earthworks and provide information for their repair has been developed at the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL)). It has been used in a number of countries including Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and Jordan to record and analyse slope conditions on more than 700 km of road. The analysis procedure employed is designed to be used on linear features, when many earthworks have to be evaluated quickly and inexpensively, and concise information about their location and cause of deterioration is required. Details of the technique used to record earthworks and description of the analysis procedure is provided, with an example showing the results for one particular section of road in the Philippines.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.

ID: 1798

Au: Krebs, Wolf; Krebs, Ingeborg.

Ti: The effect of the Soufriere Volcano on the coastal sea life in the west of Montserrat.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies. Department of Geography and Geology. Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 40.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Healthy coral reefs are found along the western coast of Montserrat wherever rocky outcroppings provide substrate for their development. Since July 1995, the Soufriere Hills volcano had frequent phreatic eruptions. The prevailing easterly winds have transported the airborne volcanic ash predominantly into the sea south of Bransby Point. Rain water transported ash that was deposited on land into the sea via rivers and ghauts. Both models of pollution had different effects on the marine biosphere. The airborne ash fell on the surface of the sea over a large area. As it sank slowly to the bottom, the currents further diluted the material. Thus an effect on the reefs was only seen after the largest of the eruptions. In these cases mainly marine algae suffered. It took about two to three weeks for them to regenerate. The ash that was washed down the rivers entered the sea in high concentration (mud) and it was deposited around the mouths of the rivers or ghauts. The reef adjacent to the mouth of White River was monitored. The ash that was washed down the rivers entered the sea in high concentration (mud) and it was deposited around the mouths of the rivers or ghauts. The reef adjacent to the mouth of White River was monitored. In October 1995 a layer of about 20 cm of silt covered a large area ranging from the mouth of the river to a depth of about 20cm. In this region the previously healthy reef was completely destroyed. In the periphery of the silt deposits, the sequence of the decay of the reef could be studied. At first, after being covered by only a thin film of silt, the green and brown algae died. The next organisms to be affected were sponges. Lighter loads of silt apparently could be cleared away by sucking it through the pores of the animals. However, if the silt load got too heavy the sponges died. Corals survived the longest due to their ability to clear the silt from their surfaces. The picture gets somewhat complicated by two hurricanes and a tropical storm in August and September 1995 and by torrential rainfalls in December 1995. In addition to the new volcanic material, these storms washed huge amounts of old soil into the sea. Due to the nature of the tidal currents in Montserrat, there is no transportation of material in the sea from the south of Bransby Point to the North of it and vice versa. Ash falls in the region north of Bransby Point are not affected at all by the volcanic activity. Eventual changes in these reefs must be attributed solely to the effect of the storms.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.

ID: 1799

Au: Sergio, Mora C.

Ti: The impact of natural hazards on socio-economic development in Costa Rica.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, Hazards and Hazard Management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 15.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Important contributions in identifying natural hazards and vulnerability in Costa Rica have been made by individuals and institutions, however, relatively little effort has been aimed towards prevention, preparedness ad mitigation of natural disasters. Recognition and prevention campaigns which were initiated in the late 1980's and early 1990's lacked momentum and their benefits have vanished without the required continuity. Heavy economic losses caused by natural disasters such as the Limon-Telire earthquake (April 22, 1991;Mw 7.6; 5 to 8.5 percent of 1991 Gross National Product, GNP) and a GNP loss average of close to 2 percent /year (around US$2 billion between 1988 and 1993) should be a testimonial motivation to reinitiate and improve a general preventive and mitigative programme for natural hazards. Essential elements in this programme ere planning and land-use zonation endeavours, design and implementation of expedite information flux systems, education programmes for students as well as the general public and sponsorship for multidisciplinary technical groups. The image and credibility of organisations such as Commission Nacional de Emergencia (CNE) should be appraised and strengthened working with specific communities upon which situations urgently require help in the natural hazards field.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.


ID: 1800

Au: Grases, Jose.

Ti: Uniform design criteria against natural hazards: the Caribbean case.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies. Department of Geography and Geology. Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 11.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Recent revisions of the selection of seismic maximum ground motions to be used for the design and/or safety evaluation of critical dams state that such works should be capable of withstanding the expected effects of the maximum credible earthquakes at the site. This implies the review of a number of dams located in seismic-prone areas, upstream of important population centres and, most important, represents a more conservative strategy in the engineering approach to dam design. In parallel to this, currently used earthquake resistant code design criteria are based on maximum ground motions which have been selected upon annual exceedences, far smaller than those accepted for the selection of maximum wind design velocities, whatever, the definition used for 'sustained velocity'. The fact that during the last five centuries, the vast majority of the Caribbean countries have been affected several times by destructive hurricanes, earthquakes and tsunamis, makes the previous issue a critical one for short and long term planning and development. It seems desirable, that long term mitigation strategies against the threat of natural hazards should follow unified criteria, associated with acceptable costs as well as with a reasonably small probability of an unacceptable performance. This paper discusses these particular issues, with emphasis on the expected structural reliability of presently enforced seismic design codes.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.

ID: 1801

Au: Roy, Abraham K; Chen, A. A.

Ti: Using WWW as an education and teaching tool for disaster awareness.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies. Dept. of Geography and Geology. Unit for Disaster Studies, , 1996. 1.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: In this era of information explosion and the easy accessibility of information super high way, World Wide Web (WWW) can be used as a teaching and educational tool as well as for generating public awareness about the disasters. Using different tools available in the Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML) such as fill out forms, image maps, Common Gateway Interface (CGI), images and animation, it is possible to make the web sites more educational and informative. Such an attempt has been made in this study to educate the public about the fundamentals of hurricanes through WWW. In this case, through a quiz, the various aspects of a hurricane are explained using images and animation. The interactive nature of the website is designed to make it more interesting and lively. This tool can be used to educate the public as a distant learning technique, especially considering the geographical nature of the distribution of Caribbean islands. This website is available at URL, http//wwwphysics.uwimona.edu.jm:1104/staff/visit/abraham/climate/quiz.HTML.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.