Disaster information: a bibliography

ID: 1776

Au: Pascaline, H; Jeremie, J. J; Jacques, D.

Ti: Geochemistry of ash and new dome rock erupted during the period July 1995 to April 1996 at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies. Dept. of Geography and Geology. Unit of Disaster Studies, 1996. 39.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Samples of ash and rocks extruded from July 1995 to April 1996 during the current eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, were analysed and the results obtained agree with the type of eruption dynamism observed. The andesitic nature of the rock is that which normally occurs in the calc-alkaline series of island arcs. The petrographic character of the extruded lava is also in accordance with evolution generally observed towards hornblende andesites. From the chemical viewpoint, indices of crystallization appear which may enable the elucidation of the physico-chemical characteristics of the magma chamber.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1777

Au: Maharaj, Russell J.

Ti: Geotechnical evaluation of ground hazards in expansive mudrocks and clays from a watershed in Trinidad, West Indies.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies. Department of Geography and Geology. Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 13.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Investigations of mudrocks from the Ortoire watershed from south Trinidad show that pyritic, calcareous, glauconitic and gypsiferous mudrocks and expansive clays occupy more than 79 percent of the drainage basin. The watershed supports domestic and commercial agriculture, hydrocarbon exploratory activities, is intensively populated and provides important transportation routes to other parts of the island. However, many of these land uses are disrupted by ground failures due to frequent landslides; foundation heave; soil piping, macropore development; soil cracking and foundation settlement in high shrinkage/expansive clays. These incur high annual damage/repair costs to local residents and Government Departments. Investigations show that weathered clays are mainly montmorillonite (20-80 percent), with secondary kaolinite (8-35 percent and illite (20-35 percent) and are overconsolidated (due to highly compressive tectonic stresses and uplift and Quaternary sea level fluctuations). They are highly plastic, with liquid limits between 74-109 percent; plasticity index between 46-77 percent; clay content between 52-92 percent; shrinkage limit between 12-19 percent; skemptons clay activity index between 0.70-1.43; in-situ density between 1620-1900 kg/m3; natural moisture between 31-43 percent; optimum moisture (ASTM Standard proctor test) between 22-32 percent; one dimensional swell potential between 1.25.3.25kg/cm2; caution exchange between 20-70; milliequivalents/100g dry soil and of Unified engineering soil classification, CH. In addition, degradation of pyritic mudrocks and the transfer of their acidic leachates to adjacent calcareous marls and mudstones lead to gypsum precipitation, while in fluvial areas, glanconitic mudstones and sandstones, jarosite precipitation is another possible hazard. Both these sulphates can increase the swell potential of weathered clays by more than 100 percent, decrease soil strength and further increase ground failures and hazards. Field studies, supported by laboratory data show that their precipitations are stratigraphically and tectonically controlled. Primary gypsum is also found in the mudrocks of lagoonal facies. Weathering of these facilitate loss of soil volume, potential collapse and foundation settlement. The geotechnical properties of all expansive clays are geologically controlled, while areas with high ground failure incidence are those primarily affected by intense tectonic deformation, strain partitioning and strain localization. In addition, gypsum and jarosite precipitation, weathering of primary gypsum and the geological control on expansive clay development has largely been unrecognised from previous studies on expansive clays from Trinidad.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1778

Au: Vandusen, Shelley R.

Ti: Historic earthquakes (1917-1962) of the North- Central Caribbean margin.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies. Department of Geography and Geology. Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 24.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: We have studied the faulting processes of eight earthquakes along the north-central Caribbean plate margin using body waveform modeling techniques. Our study area extends from southwestern Cuba to the Swan Island fracture zone (75o to 85o W). Results of this study show that the western portion of the region (80o to 84oW) has only experienced large (magnitude 6.0) strike-slip earthquakes with focal depth of 12 km or less. Since 1917, seismic slip due to large earthquakes in this region is 50 to 80 percent of plate motion rates. The oceanic nature of the plates on either side of this portion of the plate boundary likely accounts for this simple, uniform behaviour. Within the eastern portion of the study are (75o to 80o W), where more continent-like material is found on either side of the plate boundary, seismic deformation occurs over a -250 km wide zone. Three of four large earthquakes we studied occurred at focal depths 12km, however, an event offshore of southern Cuba in 1932 could be as deep as 26km. Large earthquakes off southern Cuba most likely involved slip along northward dipping, high angle-reverse faults. Onshore and offshore of Jamaica, large earthquakes showed a combination of strike-slip and reverse motion, most likely along east-west and northwest-southeast striking fault planes. Seismic slip rates are much lower (2 to 20percent) than plate motion rates in this region, however, one earthquake of magnitude 7.8 (comparable to the 1946 Hispaniola earthquake) would make the seismic slip rates comparable to plate motion rates.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.


ID: 1779

Au: Wadge, Geoffrey.

Ti: How did we do? Looking back on the 1986 assessment of volcanic hazard at Soufriere Hills.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 29.

Co: 2nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12, October, 1996.

Ab: In 1986 Mike Isaacs and I undertook an assessment of the future hazards posed by volcanic activity at Soufriere Hills volcano. This was done under the Seismic Research Unit's basic remit to supply hazard assessment and partly funded by the Pan Caribbean Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Project. Field work comprised mapping the most recent deposits and collecting and submitting charcoal for radiocarbon dating. In the laboratory at Reading, computer simulations of the deposition of past eruptions were made. A 35 page report to the Montserrat government and an academic paper resulted. The former was dusted off in July of 1995 and helped guide some of the early thinking on how to respond to the crisis. Reading the report now it is clear that we did not anticipate the actual course of events in 1995-6. Specifically, we made no attempt to assess the addition of new dome lava to Castle Peak dome. However, what the report was successful at doing was to alert the authorities to the potential of major explosive eruption in southern Montserrat and giving guidelines on which to base evacuation strategy. The emphasis on this "worst-case scenario" was therefore justified and indeed is still valid for future use.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1780

Au: Lynch, Lloyd L; Ambeh, William B; Robertson, Richard E. A.

Ti: Interaction between the scientists, civil authorities and the public during the first six months of the Soufriere Hills Volcano crisis in Montserrat.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 41.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: The current eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, is the most serious volcanic crisis in the Caribbean since the 1979 eruption of the Soufriere Volcano in St. Vincent. There have been four volcano-seismic crises at this volcanic centre in the past 100 years but no eruptions since about 350 years BP. Unlike the regional scientists who have been closely monitoring the most recent unrest since it began back in 1992, the Montserrat public and the civil authorities were less prepared for the eruption. Not only was there not a detailed emergency plan in existence but most people were unaware that there was a potentially active volcano on the island. These two factors strongly influenced the courses of action that were taken at various stages during the first six months of the crisis by some of the key social actors. This paper explores the protocols and procedures that were employed in communication of scientific and other advice to the civil authorities and information to the public during the crisis. It also explores the public response to some of the emergency preparedness measures implemented and the avenues that were used to express public sensation, desire and perception.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.

ID: 1781

Au: Rogers, Cassandra T.

Ti: Landslide hazard evaluation products for selected watersheds in St. Lucia, West Indies.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 20.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: The limited availability of landslide hazard data and the non-existence of relevant digital databases for most Caribbean islands limit the methodology by which the time frame in which landslide hazard in these islands can be evaluated. In spite of these limitations, landslide hazard products must be prepared with sufficient accuracy and timeliness to enable their utilization by potential users. The paper describes a landslide hazard evaluation package which was prepared under these conditions for eleven priority watersheds in St. Lucia, immediately following widespread landslide damage which affected the island during Tropical Storm Debbie. The package consists of a suite of three annotated maps, at 1:25,000 scale, and a companion guidance document. The map data base contains an updated landslide inventory map, a debris flow hazard map and a map of existing and potential debris flow initiation sites and runout regions. The guidance document provides, i) recommendations for appropriate land use in regions of varying landslide hazard and ii) procedural action to reduce the vulnerability of planned activities to landsliding. The maps were prepared manually by calculating hazard ratios for individual hazard units, terrain units with uniform slope gradient, slope form, soil type and mean annual rainfall. Although these hazard evaluation products have high utility, the problems involved in their preparation highlight the urgent need for the development of digital databases to better equip these islands to mitigate against landslides prior to a disaster, and to respond more rapidly to post-disaster conditions.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.


ID: 1782

Au: Devine, Joseph D; Rutherford, Malcolm J; Young, Simon R; Ambeh, William B; Hoblitt, Richard P; Shepherd, John B.

Ti: Mineralogy of dome-forming andesite lavas recently erupted in Montserrat, West Indies.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 36.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Volcanic activity at the Soufriere Hills Volcano in Montserrat (Lesser Antilles island arc) resumed after a dormant period of 420+25 years on 18 July 1995 with a series of phreatic explosions accompanied by abnormally high levels of seismic activity. Since late September 1995 a small andesitic lava dome has grown in the vicinity of Castle Peak, a young (20 years b.p.) andesitic dome which occupies English's Crater (20,000 years b.p.). A review of seismic monitoring and volcanic hazard assessment activities triggered by the ongoing eruption will be presented elsewhere by the Montserrat Volcano Observatory scientific team. This report summarises the results of mineralogical studies of old and new Castle Peak dome eruption products undertaken in order to provide estimates of magma ascent rates and pre-eruption conditions (e.g. T, P, PH20) in the magma storage region.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library..

ID: 1783

Au: Timiovska, L. S.

Ti: Model of seismic intensity field in the problems of seismic risk evaluation.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 23.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.

ID: 1784

Au: Chen, A. A; McTavish, J; Roy, Abraham K.

Ti: Modelling of flood and drought conditions in the Caribbean.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 6.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: A project to model flood and drought conditions in the Caribbean was initiated in 1994 with the formation of the Climate Modelling Group, Mona (CMGM). The objective of the project is to determine the atmospheric conditions responsible for floods and droughts in the Caribbean by the use of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The model used in the project is the Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) model with resolution determined by triangular 30 truncation. One of the initial activities of the project was to conduct a series of statistical analyses of observed climate data to identify climate parameters which would likely affect flood and drought conditions in the Caribbean. Techniques employed included empirical orthogonal functions (eof), correlation functions and spectral analysis. The COLA model was validated for use of the University of the West Indies' computer and for use in the Caribbean region. A series of runs were then made to simulate Caribbean climate in real time and in conditions where individual or combined climate parameters were used. Model runs indicate that precipitation in the Eastern Caribbean is positively correlated with El Nino events. However, the COLA model is not accurate enough for conclusive studies and it has a resolution of 40o longitude x 5o latitude so that the climate of individual islands, such as Jamaica, is not well represented. For more accurate work and to predict climate changes in individual islands a higher resolution model, the so-called regional model, is needed. Such a model will have the beneficial spin-off of giving 10 day weather forecast for an island such as Jamaica.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1785

Au: Robertson, Richard E. A; Shepherd, John B; Jackson, Paul; Skerritt, George.

Ti: Monitoring ground deformation at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 31.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Geodetic levelling stations designed to measure earth tilt as a means of prediction of volcanic activity, were established at the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat in 1966. These early stations used a Hawaiian-type portable water-tube tiltmeter and were deployed during the 1966-67 volcano-seismic crisis. Single setup levelling lines using a Wild N3 precision level replaced the water-tube tiltmeters during the 1980s and a number of new stations were established. During the current period of unrest at the Soufriere Hills volcano, a variety of techniques and instruments have been used to measure ground deformation. These include: a) Single-setup or "dry tilt" levelling using a Wild N2 level; b) Electronic tiltmeters using bubble tiltmeters; c) Electronic Distance Measurement (EDM) using a Leica TC1100 total station. The techniques and instrumentation used has evolved in response to specific problems which have arisen as the crisis developed. The EDM technique has proved to be the most useful in terms of interpretation of the progress of the eruption. Changes in ground tilt have been noted at the dry tilt stations but these have been ambiguous. No genuine tilt event has been recorded by the electronic tiltmeter stations. Expansions of the Castle Peak region has been continuous since the application of the EDM technique during late August 1995. The rate has generally been very low but an increase in the rate of expansion by one to two orders of magnitude immediately preceded the phase of significant dome growth which began in the middle of November 1995. The poster examines all aspects of ground deformation used in Montserrat. The principles, techniques and equipment used, particularly during the current period of volcanic activity, are presented as well as some of the results obtained so far. The development of the ground deformation network is also highlighted and plans for its future expansion reviewed briefly.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1786

Au: Robertson, Richard E. A; Young, Simon R; Darroux, Billy.

Ti: Morphological changes due to volcanic activity at English's Crater, Montserrat, West Indies

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 27.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: The Soufriere Hills Volcano lies in the south-central part of the island of Montserrat, at the northern end of the Lesser Antilles island arc. Volcanic activity in the past has produced a series of volcanic domes: Gages, Chances, Galways and Perches, which encircle a horse-shoe shaped summit crater. English's Crater is an arcuate structure one kilometre in diametre breached on the east and partly filled by Castle Peak dome. Eruptive activity began at the Soufriere Hills volcano on 18, July with the opening of a steam and ash vent on the northwest side of Castle Peak dome. During the period July to September 1995, activity at the volcano was largely phreatic and a succession of vents formed, which skirted the flank and top of the old Castle Peak dome. A cryptodome was formed during late September 1995 and a juvenile spine was extruded on the west side of Castle Peak dome. Since this time visible activity at the volcano has been characterised by slow growth accompanied by magmatic gas emission. Visual observations of conditions at English's Crater from a helicopter and from various observation points around the volcano, have been a vital component of monitoring activities. Basic photography using small and medium format still cameras have been used to document changes around the volcano. Significant changes in the morphology of Castle Peak dome and in conditions at English’s Crater, which have occurred during the eruption have been well documented. This poster presents a pictorial review of the 1995/96 eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano using both photographs and topographic maps to illustrate the morphological changes which have occurred at Castle Peak dome. It serves to highlight the utility of a detailed photographic and visual record in the interpretation and analysis of volcanic activity.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1787

Au: Earle, Aedan H.

Ti: Multi-hazard mapping and risk assessment in the British Virgin Islands-an application of GIS in environmental assessments and development planning.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 8.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: The Hazard and Risk Assessment Project currently underway in the British Virgin Islands involves the systematic evaluation and mapping of natural and man-made hazards, production of an inventory of the elements at risk, establishing degrees of vulnerability and estimating losses. Ultimately risk associated with the various hazards will be assessed. The project is being conducted within the framework of a Geographic Information System. Data sets generated by the different stages of the project are overlain and additional Data sets or themes developed. The GIS data base will serve as inputs for long term development planning purposes and real time disaster management. The outputs of the project are to be used to develop disaster mitigation strategies. The advantages of a comprehensive approach to hazard assessment is outlined and the value of GIS in environmental management is demonstrated.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1788

Au: Ahmad, Rafi; Robinson, Edward.

Ti: Neotectonic faults and landslides in Jamaica.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, Hazards and Hazard Management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department. of Geography and Geology Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 3.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: Neotectonic faults and fault scarps form an important landslide generating environment on the island of Jamaica, located in a seismically active, strike-slip plate boundary zone. Some of the more spectacular and damaging landslides, e.g. Judgement Cliff, Millbank, Rio Nuevo Valley, Ewarton and Preston are associated with neotectonic structures. In all cases, it is Tertiary limestones exposed in the fault scarps that have slipped over a basement of older and relatively less competent rocks. At Judgement Cliff, the rupture surface lies within lithological horizons containing gypsum. These conditions provide an ideal environment for the overlying limestone slabs to slip over the weak basement rocks. In areas where fault scarps overlook relatively narrow valleys, such landslides have the potential to block and dam the river course, flooding the valley with a temporary lake. The Millbank and, probably, the Judgement Cliff landslides were of this type. The landslide triggering mechanisms are heavy rainfall and/or seismic vibrations. Human interference with the slopes associated with fault scarps is thought to increase their susceptibility to failure.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.
ID: 1789

Au: Douligeris, Christos; Collins, John.

Ti: Prototype oil spill information management system.

So: In: Ahmad, Rafi. ed. Science, hazards and hazard management: abstracts. Kingston, University of the West Indies, Department of Geography and Geology, Unit for Disaster Studies, 1996. 7.

Co: 2^nd Caribbean Conference on Natural Hazards and Disasters; Kingston, 9-12 Oct. 1996.

Ab: The Oil Spill Information Management System (OSIMS) is an integrated information management tool providing a graphical interface to an object-oriented database of geographical and other spill-related data. OSIMS combines the utility of a Geographic Information System (GIS) with the intelligence of a Decision Support System (DSS), and provides world-wide access through the Internet and the World-Wide Web (WWW). In addition to the static maps available in a traditional GIS, OSIMS provides an advanced visualization tool for atmospheric and oceanic data, including animations of oil spill trajectory models and 3-D plots of ocean currents. The DSS component of OSIMS includes on-line contingency plans for selected areas of the Florida Coast, which may be accessed by the user or searched automatically by a rule-based expert system (CLIPS). Rules are used to determine what to display, and at what level of detail. The key is to provide the requisite information without overwhelming the user with irrelevant details. OSIMS provides the high degree of organisation and preparation required to allow the various agencies and responsible parties to effectively manage an oil spill cleanup effort. OSIMS may also provide an organised management system to support strategic activities, e.g. contingency-planning, training and event-reconstruction. A prototype regional OSIMS system has been developed. The system is also capable of being expanded to address more general pollution issues, fishery management issues and expand its geographic focus in the Sea of the Americas. It can also form the basis for the development of similar information management systems for the other natural and man-made hazards and emergency situations.

Lo: UWI, Mona, Science Library.