evidence you need to gather is whether the variables you use to define an edge are present at any given
moment. When you use "other" information, outside the parameters of your edge to decide whether you
will take the trade, you are adding random variables to your trading regime.
Adding random variables makes it extremely difficult,
if not impossible, to determine what works and
what doesn't. If you're never certain about the viability of your edge, you won't feel too confident about
it. To whatever degree you lack confidence, you will experience fear. The irony is,
you will be afraid of
random, inconsistent results, without realizing that your random, inconsistent approach is creating
exactly what you are afraid of. On the other hand, if you believe that an
edge is simply a higher
probability of one thing happening over another, and there's a random distribution between wins and
losses for any given set of variables that define an edge, why would you gather "other" evidence for or
against a trade? To a trader operating out
of these two beliefs, gathering "other" evidence wouldn't
make any sense.
Or let me put it this way: Gathering "other" evidence makes about as much sense as trying to determine
whether the next flip of a coin will be heads, after the last ten flips came up tails. Regardless of what
evidence you find to support heads coming up, there is still a 50-percent chance that
the next flip will
come up tails. By the same token, regardless of how much evidence you gather to support acting or not
acting on a trade, it still only takes one trader somewhere in the world to negate the validity of any, if
not all, of your evidence.
The point is
why bother!
If the market is offering you a legitimate edge,
determine the risk and take the trade.
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