Naval postgraduate school monterey, california thesis

LIST OF FIGURES 
 
 
Figure 1. 
Author’s Principles for Hostage Rescue Operations ......................................2 
Figure 2. 
Range of Military Operations. (From Joint Pub 3-0, 2001, p. I-2). ...............6 
Figure 3. 
Author’s Representation of the Effects of Time on Principles .......................7 
Figure 4. 
Author’s Personal Biorhythm (www.krstarica.com, last accessed 
on 16 August 2004).......................................................................................21 
Figure 5. 
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Crisis Biorhythm Model...............22 
Figure 6. 
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Crisis Biorhythm and 
Windows of Opportunity ..............................................................................23 
Figure 7. 
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Takers’ Biorhythm 
Factors...........................................................................................................24 
Figure 8. 
Author’s Representation of the Rescue Force’s Biorhythm Factors ............24 
Figure 9. 
Author’s Representation of a Hostage Crisis Diagram 
Incorporating the Four Hostage Rescue Principles with the 
Biorhythm .....................................................................................................33 
Figure 10. 
Author’s Representation of the Negotiations House ....................................54 
Figure 11. 
Author’s Representation of Operation CHAVIN DE HUANTAR 
Biorhythm .....................................................................................................71 
Figure 12. 
Author’s Representation of the Networks in Operation CHAVIN 
DE HUANTAR.............................................................................................74 
Figure 13. 
Author’s Representation of Sztompka’s Trust / Influence Model ................75 
Figure 14. 
Overlapping Strategies, (National War College, 2002, p. 69) ......................85 
Figure 15. 
Targeted Audiences, (National War College, 2002, p. 40)...........................86 
Figure 16. 
Author’s Representation of the Prisoner’s Dilemma ....................................99 
Figure 17. 
Author’s Representation of the Game of Chicken ......................................100 
Figure 18. 
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Dilemma .....................................101 
Figure 19. 
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Dilemma Movement 
Diagram.......................................................................................................103 
Figure 20. 
Author’s Representation of the Nash Equilibrium and Dominant 
Strategy .......................................................................................................103 
Figure 21. 
Author’s Representation of the AD to AC is Pareto Optimal Line ............105 
Figure 22. 
Author’s Representation of the Terrorist Security Level............................108 
Figure 23. 
Author’s Representation of the Rescue Force Security Level ....................108 
Figure 24. 
Author’s Representation of the Nash Arbitration Geometric 
Method ........................................................................................................109 
Figure 25. 
Author’s Representation of the Nash Arbitration Algebraic 
Method ........................................................................................................112 
Figure 26. 
Author’s Representation of a Pareto Optimal Outcome .............................115 
Figure 27. 
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Crisis Decision Model ................118 
Figure 28. 
Author’s Representation of Scenario A with 
XY 
plot .................................120 
Figure 29. 
Author’s Representation of Scenario B with 
XY 
plot ................................121 
Figure 30. 
Author’s Representation of Scenario C with 
XY 
plot .................................122 
Figure 31. 
Author’s Representation of Scenario D with XY plot ...............................123 

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Figure 32. 
Scenario A and Scenario B with new utilities ............................................124 
Figure 33. 
Scenario C and Scenario D with new utilities ............................................124 
Figure 34. 
Concept and Mission Plan (Information retrieved from 
http://www.1sos.com/desertone.html, last accessed on 28 Jul 04) .............130 
Figure 35. 
Author’s Representation of JTF 1-79 Task Organization (Kyle, 
1995, p.68) ..................................................................................................131 
Figure 36. 
Author’s Representation of Elements and Compartmentalization 
of JTF 1-79 at DESERT ONE ....................................................................137 
Figure 37. 
Task Architecture of JTF 1-79 (Joint Pub 5-00.2, 1999, p. IX-15) ............139 
Figure 38. 
Author’s Representation of the MDMP Process(FM 101-5, 1997, 
p. 5-2)..........................................................................................................140 
Figure 39. 
Day 1 Night (Kyle, 1995, p. 204); Day 2 Routes (Kyle, 1995, p. 
206) .............................................................................................................143 
Figure 40. 
Disaster Strikes (Kyle, 1995, p. 340)..........................................................143 
Figure 41. 
Author’s Representation of Operation EAGLE CLAW’s 
Biorhythm ...................................................................................................150 
Figure 42. 
Author’s Representation for the De Punt Train Rescue Biorhythm ..........156 
Figure 43. 
Author’s Representation of the Munich Olympics Biorhythm...................161 
Figure 44. 
Author’s Representation of Egypt’s Air Flight 648 Biorhythm .................165 
Figure 45. 
Author’s Representation of Operation FIRE MAGIC’s Biorhythm...........169 

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