Naval postgraduate school monterey, california thesis
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- 3. Biorhythm
| d. Deception
Similar to surprise, the deception principle was considered, but only as a quick means to end the siege. The deception plan was not synchronized with the rest of the rescue operation and was not tied into the intelligence collection or tactical assault plan. The first deception effort came with the emergency assault plan, by dressing the police officers in athlete’s outfits. The police chief considered a different approach by sending five undercover police officers to deliver meals to the terrorists, in hopes that they could storm the terrorists once they came out to pick up the food. This did not work 161 because the terrorists never allowed the officers to come close to the apartment. At the airfield, the airplane used was a dummy aircraft and the personnel dressed as Lufthansa crewmembers did not have the complete uniforms to make their plan believable. When the men on the plane decided to abort their portion of the plan, the rest of the operation fell to pieces (Reeve, 2000, p. 112). There was no diversion planned during the most critical event in the operation—the transload from the helicopters to the airplane. The deception during this phase should have been centered in trying to separate the terrorists from the hostages, specifically when considering an open-air option. Overall, some deceptive measures were considered but not synchronized properly with the rest of the hostage rescue principles and the overall tactical plan. 3. Biorhythm Intelligence, Surprise + Deception, Operator’s Skill for Hostage Taker Intelligence, Surprise + Deception, Operator’s Skill for Rescue Force Mission Success Mission Failure St ar t o f C ris is St ar t o f C ris is Time (hours) 50% 50% probability probability of success of success 5 Sep 1972: 5 Sep 1972: Eight Palestinian terr or ists from the Ei ght Palestinian terrorists from the Bl ack September facti on assault the Black September faction assault the Munich Ol ympic Vill age; 11 Israeli Munich Olympic Village; 11 Israeli athletes are taken hosta ge athletes are taken hostage HIT 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 During the assaul t, Duri ng the assault, two hostages are two hosta ges are shot de ad shot dead Terrorists issue Terror ists i ssue demands demands 1 1 st st attempt at attempt at nego tiati ons negoti ations 2 2 nd n d attempt at attemp t at negotiations negotiations 3 3 rd rd attempt at attempt at negoti ations nego tiati ons German authori ties German authoriti es attempt emergency attempt emergency assault; they are assaul t; they are compromised by compromi sed by news camera news camera person person German authoriti es German authori ties attempt delivery of attempt deli very of food decep tion food decepti on 2220hrs: Terrorists 2220hrs: Terrorists and hostages ar e and hostages are moved to airfield by moved to ai rfiel d by heli copter helicopter 4 4 th th attempt at attempt at negotiations negoti ations 2334hrs: Thir d helo 2334hrs: Third helo wi th German with German reinfor cements lands reinforcements lands a mile away from the a mile away from the scene scene 2232hrs: German police 2232hrs: German police snipers open fi re sniper s open fire 2355hrs: German armored 2355hrs: German armored vehicles arrive at airfiel d; vehi cles arri ve at air field; gunner shoo ts two snipers gunner shoots two snipers Terrori st shoots five Terrorist shoots five hosta ges and throws hostages and throws grenade i nside his helo gr enade inside hi s helo 2 2 nd n d Terr orist shoots Terrorist shoots four hostages and four hostages an d inside hi s hel o inside his helo Fi ve terrori sts, one Five terrorists, one Ger man poli ce officer , German police offi cer, and all the hostag es are and al l the hostages are dead. Three ter rorists dead. Three terrori sts survive and are survi ve and are apprehended apprehended Figure 43. Author’s Representation of the Munich Olympics Biorhythm |