Naval postgraduate school monterey, california thesis

2. Surprise 
Rescue operations are the only type of military operation in which 
complete surprise is a precondition….The critical element is always the 
feasibility of a surprise assault, for the key to success in any rescue 
operation is the ability to achieve complete surprise (Gazit, 1980, pp. 118, 
122).
SOF must achieve surprise to the extent that the enemy cannot react effectively 
prior to mission accomplishment (Joint Pub 3-05, 1998, p. I-5). The principle of surprise 
as a factor in the biorhythm is defined as exploiting indirect approaches and doing the 
unexpected. It often requires bold, imaginative, and audacious actions, particularly when 
applying combat power directly and with surgical precision (FM 31-20, 1990, p. 1-9).
When coupled with deceptive measures, the effects of surprise can be maximized when 
the hostile forces do not know the means of the disruption and cannot implement 
effective countermeasures. 
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OPSEC is the process of identifying critical information and subsequently analyzing friendly 
actions attendant to military operations and other activities to: (a) identify those actions that can be 
observed by adversary intelligence systems, and (b) to determine indicators hostile intelligence systems 
might obtain that could be interpreted or pieced together to derive critical information in time to be useful 
to adversaries, and (c) to select and execute measures that eliminate or reduce to an acceptable level the 
vulnerabilities of friendly actions to adversary exploitation (Joint Pub 3-07.2, 1998, p. GL-4). 

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Surprise means being able to use creativity and agility, not just violence and 
explosiveness. Take for example Operation WINTER HARVEST—the rescue of 
Brigadier General James Dozier
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in January of 1982. After nearly a month of captivity, 
a U.S. surveillance team reported the exact location and guard patterns of the Red 
Brigade terrorists that were guarding the General to Italian authorities. A team of ten 
men from the Italian Carabinieri was on alert, waiting for the right opportunity to enter 
the apartment and conduct a rescue. When there were only two guards from the Red 
Brigade guarding the General, the Italians simply walked up to the apartment and 
knocked on the front door. As soon as one of the guards opened the door, ten Carabinieri 
stormed the room, subduing the two terrorists and safely rescuing General Dozier 
(Harclerode, 2001, p. 432).
In 
The Principles of War for the Information Age
, Bob Leonard divides the 
element of surprise into technical and tactical, and describes any force at war as 
perpetually unready to fight (p. 193). This concept directly applies to the hostage rescue 
crisis; the rescue force must take full advantage of the technical and tactical means to 
achieve complete surprise prior to the assault. In a hostage rescue situation, a few 
seconds can mean the difference between success and failure; a terrorist can shoot a 
hostage or can detonate an explosive device inside the target area. Absolute surprise is 
necessary to allow the assault force those critical seconds to neutralize the threat. The 
loss of surprise will almost automatically mean aborting the plan. Rescue forces must 
rely heavily on the element of surprise to gain relative superiority
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. The element of 
surprise is closely dependent on a good deception plan, excellent timing, and exploiting 
the enemy’s weaknesses.