Needs Assessment in response to the “El Niño” effects (flood / drought) in the affected districts of the United Republic of Tanzania
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Build the government capacity at central, regional and district / municipality level - targeting staff of the line ministries but also those from the Disaster Management Department - specifically on: disaster risk reduction and management, preparedness, post-disaster needs assessments and response planning. •
Establish a contingency fund in order to be able to implement needs assessments and response plans as well as quickly releasing emergency stocks which includes: food and seeds in addition to other relief items. •
Undertake a national study to identify disaster risk hotspots and propose mechanism / means of preventing and reducing the impact.
Picture 5: Flooded bridge and road
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3.4.5. Prioritization for interventions Based on the fieldwork exercise, the assessment team came out with a prioritization matrix based on the severity of the “El-Niño’s” effects in all visited locations (Table 9).
This ranking should be used for targeting purposes, thus helping the government and additional humanitarian actors to come out with effective response operations. Table 9 Prioritization of locations to receive assistance Region District Local Government Authority Ward
Ranking* Shinyanga Shinyanga Shinyanga MC Mwamalili 3 Shinyanga DC Nyida 1 Mara Serengeti Serengeti DC Kisaka 2
Bunda DC Kisolya
2 Mwanza
Magu Magu DC
Bujashi 1.4
Sengerema Sengerema DC Katunguru 2.4
Kwimba Kwimba DC Fukalo 1.2
Morogoro Kilosa
Kilosa DC Tindiga
1 Mvomero
Mvomero DC Sungaji
2 Kilombero Kilombero DC Kivukoni 2.2 Arusha
Arumeru Arumeru DC Uwiro 1
Longido DC Noondoto 2 Monduli
Monduli DC Mswakini 1.2 Dodoma
Chamwino Chamwino DC Suri 1.7
Dodoma Dodoma MC Mpunguzi 1.2
Mpwapwa Mpwapwa DC Gulwe 1
Additionally, most urgent and specific interventions were identified for the different assessed regions based on the severity of the floods’ impact. The number of potential beneficiaries for each of the visited region disaggregated by type of intervention are given in Table 10. Table 10: Type of intervention and number of beneficiaries per type of intervention Visited Region Type of interventions and estimated numbers of potential beneficiaries Vegetables & tools
(HH) Field crops & tools (HH)
Livestock vaccination (animals) Cash for Work activities (HH) Chicken
package (HH)
Total beneficiaries / animal vaccinated Arusha 1100
2000
1000 4100
Dodoma 2050
2000 7000
750
4800 Mara 350
2000 3000
1000
3350 Morogoro 2100 2000
750
500 5350
Mwanza 2400
10000 4000
1000 1000
14400 Shinyanga
3000
12000
3000 Tot. beneficiaries 8000 21000
3714 2500
3500 38714
Tot. Animal vaccinated
26000
245000 271000 29
4.
Projected Likely Scenario and conclusion The “El-Niño’s” event is expected to continue throughout the country, probably resulting in additional floods as indicated by weather forecasts from the Tanzanian Meteorological Agency (TMA), which might have further negative implications on crop and animal production while affecting the livelihoods of additional vulnerable people. These events are projected to occur during the period of March and April 2016, which are considered critical months for the development of key staple crops such as maize, rice, sorghum, millet, etc. In addition to the damages and losses caused by the floods across the assessed regions, released crop estimates are showing that the ongoing maize harvest for the short agricultural season “vuli” in bi-modal rainfall areas, contributing usually to approximately 15 percent of the total annual cereal production, is expected to have a below-average production. The main reasons are attributed to the erratic rains registered in the country at the beginning of the agricultural season. 23
to provide some income for the most poor and labour-dependent households, however it will not compensate the losses encountered during the short “vuli” season. Overall, the food security situation in the country remains favourable in both bi-modal and uni-modal rainfalls areas. Despite this, some food insecurity continue to endure in the uni- modal Rift Valley regions of Dodoma and Singida, which experienced lower crop production during the last “Msimu” season (2015). Households in these areas are currently at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity level. 24
In addition, the findings of the assessments indicate that some areas affected by floods were currently in need of food assistance, due to the scarcity of food at household level resulting from the failure of their agricultural production in relation to the “vuli” season. This situation might even get worse if the effects of the “El-Niño” will continue as announced and anticipated, leading to an increase in food insecurity also towards other areas which are usually considered food secure. Indeed, implication on the nutrition status of the affected people also need to be considered and further assessed since as demonstrated from the results of the assessment, many people have already engaged in negative copying mechanisms such as reducing number of meal per day or relying on less preferred food. In conclusion, it is imperative to continue monitoring the agro-meteorological situation and conduct an in-depth crop, food security and nutrition assessment at the end of the current main agricultural season, in order to estimate the final implications of the “El-Niño’s” effect on the livelihoods of the most vulnerable and affected population.
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http://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country/TZA/pdf/TZA.pdf 24 FAO GIEWS Country Brief 12 th February 2016
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