224
A. I. Danilov, V. E. Lagun, A. V. Klepikov
Modern methods of standard upper-air network station measurements data
analysis, quality control, proceeding and interpretation are summarized in [22].
The impact of observed and projected changes in meteorological conditions and
in the Arctic permafrost layer and the emission of
greenhouse gases has been
studied in the series of articles [23–38].
Possible Northern Hemisphere land permafrost dynamics due to current climate
changes in the 21
st
century are estimated using the
IAP RAS global climate model
under the different RCP scenarios [24]. According to model calculations [24] the
annual mean northern land temperature during the 21
st
century amounts to 1,2–
5,3 °C depending on the RCP scenario and permanent surface permafrost in the late
21
st
century persists in several high-latitude parts Siberia and North America.
Based on experimental dataset [31] the total contribution of Western Siberia
tundra lakes methane emission into atmospheric budget is estimated as 20
KtCH4/year. The high spatial and inter-annual variability of the surface methane
concentration in the atmosphere over Northern Eurasia area is demonstrated in
[32] based on regular station multi-year measurement results. Methane emission
over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf under the changing sub-sea permafrost con‑
ditions based on detailed ground hydrothermal regime model is estimated in [33].
Projected degradation of subsea permafrost over Russian Arctic shelf impact
to methane release from the Late Pleistocene to present time at the West Yamal
area shelf is modeled in [34]. Possible release of methane from the seabed mech‑
anism in a present Arctic warming conditions is described. Field high-resolution
seismic measurements of subsea permafrost distribution in the South Kara Sea
are demonstrated that that local permafrost has degraded more significantly than
previously thought [35].
Relationships between summer vegetation phenology parameters for Arctic
tundra coastal zone and spring the peculiarity of atmospheric circulation and sea
ice distribution are investigated in [36] using satellite data, reanalysis and mod‑
el statistical modeling results.
Current permafrost degradation dynamics on Svalbard are estimated in [37]
based on multi-year meteorological observation, snow and moss distribution and
thermodynamic modelling information.
The review of Russian field and model Arctic atmosphere methane studies,
including relevant surface methane concentration measurements at the Russian
Arctic sites and regional modeling results are presented in [38]. The estimations
of both methane emission from the Russian territory and climatic effect of atmos‑
pheric methane content are also discussed in [38]. Modern permafrost stability
level assessment taking into account current climate change is presented in [39].
Considerable attention during the reporting period was paid to the analysis
of the of synoptic climatology parameters as important indicators of
the current
meteorological
conditions, such as climatic variability [40–45].
225
Polar
Meteorology
Handbook [40] presents information about Arctic atmosphere unique natural
event: a polar mesoscale cyclone (PMC) or polar low. Polar mesocyclones now
attract a lot of attention of many scientists. An interest to PMCs is due to neces‑
sity of possible origin strong storm and very strong storm weather events fore‑
casting and their impact on economic objects infrastructure
and sea transport
tools. This information is useful to support the hydrometeorological service and
to increase the quality of forecasting over Arctic sea area of water where mesos‑
cale cyclogenesis processes develop which is necessity for regional Roshydrom‑
et branches and oil and natural gas production companies working on Arctic
shelf. Polar mesocyclonic vortex weather conditions, duration and drift speed
data are presented in this Handbook. Possible polar mesocyclone genesis mech‑
anisms and their annual course and interannual variations peculiarities are de‑
scribed. Possibility of mesoscale cyclone projection estimation and brief descrip‑
tion of 20 typical mesoscale cyclogenesis events are collected. The Handbook
Annex contents regional PMCs catalogue-calendar with mesoscale cloudy eddies
geographical
coordinates, size and shape indication for 1981–2006 [40].
The high latitudes atmospheric circulation many‑year
dynamic study been
carried out using a multiscale (global and regional) atmospheric modeling system
with horizontal resolutions of 200, 50 and 25 km [41]. The analysis of polar
mesocyclones winter season activity has been investigated in [41] depending on
the spatial resolution of the model system and compared with that in the reanal‑
yses and satellite-derived analyses [40].
Numerical estimates of the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere cyclones
number and size to the surface temperature changes are investigated due to mul‑
tiyear NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and are compared with model of synoptic
eddies activities (MMPKh model) results [42]. According
to the reanalysis data
number of extratropical cyclones and the density of their packing in extratropical
latitudes characterized by decrease during the surface temperature increases pe‑
riod. Important variations in annual mean values in the number and size of
mid-latitude cyclones are connected with the troposphere vertical temperature
gradient: an increase the vertical temperature gradient in the troposphere corre‑
sponds decreases the cyclone size [42].
Arctic region cyclonic climatology parameters (frequency, size, intensity) and
their changes have been analyzed with the use of the HIRHAM regional climate
model simulations with SRES-A1B anthropogenic scenario for the twenty first cen‑
tury a warmer climate for different seasonal conditions and compared from ERA-40
reanalysis data in [43]. According to the HIRHAM simulations, the frequency of
cyclones is increasing in warm seasons and decreasing in cold seasons for a warm‑
er climate era in the twenty first century, but these changes are statistically insignif‑
icant [43]. Some increase in the small cyclones number was detected in cold seasons
on the contrary to cold seasons, while its frequency decreases in warm seasons [43].