members having substantial sobriety time behind them was sufficient to
convince
the membership that a new light had entered the dark world of the
alcoholic."
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++++Message 6439. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 % A.A. success rate statistically
impossible
From: Glenn Chesnut . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/9/2010 7:41:00 PM
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It is statistically impossible for AA to have only a 1% success rate.
There are about 1 million A.A. members in the U.S., according to the
official
A.A. statistics.*
Now if 100 raving alcoholics had to come to A.A. in order for just one of
them
to get sober (while the other 99 went back to smashing cars, being unable to
hold jobs, and getting into fist fights in bars),
that would mean that 99 million raving alcoholics would have had to have
come to
A.A. meetings and failed, to balance out that paltry 1 million who got
sober.
The U.S. population is about 300 million.
That would mean that one third of the people in the U.S., men, women, and
children -- AT A BARE MINIMUM -- must be raving alcoholics, running into one
another drunkenly on the highways and bumping into one another as they
stagger
down the pavement.
But according to the National Institutes of Health News for Mar. 17, 1995,
only
4.38 % of persons aged eighteen and older in the U.S. suffer from alcohol
dependence (that is, the kind of chronic hardcore alcoholism which A.A. was
developed to treat). That is only around ten million alcoholics in the U.S.
--
not a hundred million!
(An additional 3.03 % drink too much for their own good, but would be able
to
quit using their own will power if given a sufficient reason to do so.)
See http://www.niaaa.nih.gov/NewsEvents/NewsReleases/nlaes.htm
Do you see the problem? There are only about 10 million chronic hardcore
alcoholics in the United States. If A.A. were only capable of getting 1% of
alcoholics sober, there could be at most only 100,000 A.A. members in the
whole
United States.**
If A.A. were capable of getting only 2% of alcoholics sober, that would
still
necessitate that there only be 200,000 A.A. members in the whole United
States,
and that one sixth of the people in the United States were raving
alcoholics,
ALL of whom had tried getting sober in A.A., even though only 98% of them
succeeded.
How about the 5% figure? If all 10 million of the people in the U.S. who
suffer
from alcoholism had gone to at least a few A.A. meetings, then it is true,
that
if 5% of these got sober in A.A., that we could account for a total A.A.
membership of 500,000. But that would only be half of the real count, and it
would require that ALL of the alcoholics in the U.S. had gone to at least a
few
A.A. meetings -- which we know is not true.
(And anyway, the 5% figure was a blatant error from the beginning. It came
originally from a man named Richard K., who belonged to the AAHistoryLovers
back
then, and who did not know how to read the statistical tables in the A.A.
Triennial Surveys. I remember well how a number of us tried to show him how
he
was misreading the tables -- that the 5% figure at one place was NOT the
one-year success rate, merely the percentage of the people at these A.A.
meetings who were in their twelfth month of attending A.A.*** -- but he
continued to insist that his misreading was correct. And then, God help us,
this
blatant misreading began being repeated by certain other people on the
internet,
without these people remotely bothering to check where that figure had come
from
or who had dreamed it up.)
Now let's look at a serious figure instead.
The A.A. Triennial Membership Surveys for 1977 through 1989 show that, of
those
people who are in their first month of attending A.A. meetings, 26% will
still
be attending A.A. meetings at the end of that year. That means that we would
have to run 4 million people roughly through a few A.A. meetings in order to
come out with 1 million people who stay in A.A. and get a bit of sobriety.
With
10 million people in the U.S. classified as alcohol dependent, that means
that
we would have to conclude that nowadays about 40% of the alcoholics in the
U.S.
end up with a little bit of contact with A.A. at one time or another during
their lives. And in fact, as a ball park estimate, this 40% figure matches
up at
least reasonably well with some very well done National Institute of Health
studies.
SO A 26 % ONE-YEAR RETENTION RATE MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL with the other
statistics which we possess -- and with common sense observations we can
make --
about A.A. in the modern United States.
And of those who "really try" -- as for example, by continuing to go to A.A.
meetings for more than 90 days -- according to the modern A.A. Triennial
Membership Surveys, 56% of those people will still be attending A.A.
meetings at
the end of that year.
Hmmm -- 56% of those who "really try" seem to be able to get sober in modern
A.A. -- sounds suspiciously like the old time claims from back in the 1930's
and
40's, when they said that 50% of the people who came to A.A. and "really
tried"
were able to get sober.
Glenn C.
South Bend, Indiana
______________________________
*The official A.A. figures, which show an A.A, membership in the U.S. of
around
one million, are very conservative -- the National Institute of Health
surveys
show that there are quite a few more Americans than that who are sober
because
of having attended A.A.
**By way of comparison, there were 50,000 in attendance at the Minneapolis
convention in 2000, and 50,000 at the Toronto convention in 2005.
***Let's say we have a four-year university program, like the undergraduate
programs at Indiana University, only at this university, nobody ever drops
out,
and nobody is ever flunked out. We enroll 1,000 new students every year:
1st year students: 1,000 = 25% of the 4,000 total
2nd year students: 1,000 = 25% of the 4,000 total
3rd year students: 1,000 = 25% of the 4,000 total
4th year students: 1,000 = 25% of the 4,000 total
Does this mean that 75% of the students are flunked out, and that only 25%
successfully gain their degrees? Of course not! The ratio of 4th year
students
to 1st year students is 1,000/1,000 (or 25/25, which ever way you choose to
phrase it) which means a one hundred percent success rate.
During the 33 years I taught at Indiana University, we in fact performed
these
calculations every year -- although we in fact did have a certain percentage
of
students who dropped out or were flunked out every year -- in order to keep
an
eye on any places where we might have an abnormally high ratio of students
failing to make it, so that we could attempt remedial measures of some sort.
In the A.A. Triennial Surveys, 19% of the people in their first year of
attending A.A. meetings were in their first month of attending A.A., while
5% of
the first year people were in their twelfth month of attending A.A. If we
take
that 5/19 ratio -- 5 divided by 19 -- this comes out to 26%.
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++++Message 6440. . . . . . . . . . . . Longest living sober member of AA?
From: RacewayJay . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/9/2010 11:48:00 PM
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Does anyone know who is the longest living sober member of AA at this time?
I
think this was asked a while back but I cannot locate it.
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++++Message 6441. . . . . . . . . . . . Main editor of 2nd edition AA Big
Book: Tom P.
From: mdingle76 . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/9/2010 8:18:00 PM
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Dear AAHL,
I have given an interview between Tom P. and Catherine N. (one of the
editors
for "Pass It On") in which Tom stated being the main editor for the 2nd
edition
of the AA Big Book. And I know this kind of information can be refuted by
others. However, I think we should take it from the horse's mouth (taking
the
horse to be Bill W.). On June 16, 1954 Bill W. said at the 19th annual
Founder's
Day (introducing the main speaker, Tom Powers):
"I hope you're going to like this new book. And if you do like it you can
credit
Tom with 50% of your liking because he is the guy who most painstakingly
edited
it and the Twelve Steps and Twelve Traditions before that."
Sorry I didn't bring this source in sooner — I always assumed Bill was
referring
to "AA Comes of Age" — a book that Tom Powers edited, structured, and
wrote a
lot of. I never paid much attention to the date on the tape until recently.
Matt D.
--- In AAHistoryLovers@yahoogroups.com, Glenn Chesnut wrote:
>
> Message #5003 from
> (jlobdell54 at hotmail.com) noted that
>
> "the chief editor for the second edition was
> Edward Hale B."
>
> It went on to say that other editors included
> "Tom (whether P. – of the 12&12 - or Y. - of
> the Grapevine - I don't know)."
> ______________________________
>
> In a further message (18 May 2008) to
> mdingle76@... (mdingle76 at yahoo.com)
>
> Jared Lobdell added the following remark:
>
> "Thanks very much. My guess had been it was
> Tom P (rather than Tom Y) but I wasn't sure.
>
> I'd be interested to know which was the story
> Tom included that some AAs didn't like (or
> whose author they didn't like)."
>
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++++Message 6442. . . . . . . . . . . . RE: Longest living sober member of
AA?
From: J. Lobdell . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/10/2010 6:16:00 AM
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From Jared Lobdell, Glenn Chesnut, Steven
Calderbank, and Beverly Foulke
- - - -
From: "J. Lobdell"
(jlobdell54 at hotmail.com)
**64 YEARS**
The longest living in the area where I live is Clyde B., June 20, 1946. In a
couple of months or so, he will have 64 years of sobriety.
- - - -
From: Glenn C.
(glennccc at sbcglobal.net)
**60 YEARS**
See Message 6431, which was posted four days ago:
"Mel B. and Tom D. 60 years sobriety dinner!"
http://health.groups.yahoo.com/group/AAHistoryLovers/message/6431
Mel B. from Toledo (who is a member of our own
AAHistoryLovers group) and Tom D. from Lima, Ohio,
will both be celebrating 60 years of sobriety at
a dinner in Wapakoneta in May. They both came into
the program in April 1950.
- - - -
From: bevflk@aol.com (bevflk at aol.com)
**58 YEARS**
This is Beverly Foulke in Tucson, Arizona. I know
of a gentlemen here who has 58 yrs. in sobriety.
Dr. Silkworth helped him get sober. His name is
Matt L. If you need more info on the subject let
me know.
- - - -
From: steven.calderbank@verizon.net
(steven.calderbank at verizon.net)
**53 YEARS**
I am sure there are others with more but Bill L.
(who will be speaking in San Antonio) has a sobriety
date of 10/1/56. 53 years.
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++++Message 6443. . . . . . . . . . . . Re: Upper Room
From: Lynn Sawyer . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/10/2010 1:53:00 AM
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Dear M.J.:
Have you tried writing to the Upper Room itself???
They will probably have some archival info. you
could get a hold of .....Just a suggestion ....
Lynn S.
grateful to be sober TODAY
Sacramento, CA
- - - -
From the moderator:
Yes, the Upper Room headquarters in Nashville,
Tennessee has copies of all of the issues, from
the beginning, in their archives.
I was in correpondence with the present editor
several years ago, to see if they would be willing
to publish a volume with a whole year's worth of
copies from somewhere in the 1935 to 1939 period.
But this was not something that they wanted to
get involved in.
You can still find copies of the Upper Room from
the 1935 to 1939 period on e-bay. I have a few
copies myself.
For some of the daily readings from the Upper Rooms
from the 1930's, see:
http://hindsfoot.org/uprm1.html
Glenn C. (South Bend, Indiana)
_____________________________________
P.S. The church in San Antonio where the women first came up with the idea
for
the Upper Room was the one which I attended when I was a child.
Also see http://hindsfoot.org/archives.html
<The
Upper Room every morning for their morning meditation. Although the Oxford
Group
had the greatest influence on the development of early A.A., this little
paperback booklet may well have been the second greatest influence on early
A.A.
spirituality. This article gives selections from the readings in some of the
issues of The Upper Room published in 1938 and 1939, along with commentary
explaining some of the ideas which A.A. drew from this source: the
understanding
of character and character defects, happiness as an inside job, the Divine
Light
within, warnings against being too imprisoned by doctrines, dogmas and
church
creeds, the dangers of resentment, instructions about how to pray, entering
the
Divine Silence, learning to listen to God, opening the shutters of my mind
to
let in the Sunlight of the Spirit, taking life One Day at a Time, and above
all,
remembering that God is present with me at all times: "Nearer is he than
breathing, closer than hands or feet.">>
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++++Message 6444. . . . . . . . . . . . Regarding longest sobriety in A.A.
From: Glenn Chesnut . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/11/2010 4:08:00 PM
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From: Walt N. who writes:
Over the years I have enjoyed the Sobriety Anniversaries website which lists
sobriety anniversaries worldwide.
http://www.aahistory.com/newbirth.html
A year ago, I was wondering about the "oldest" sober person in this list and
went through it and compiled the following list which starts wth Cynthia C,
whose code number translates [40 = 1940 and 0313 March 13] (DOS March 13,
1940).
I stopped at Al M (DOS September 27, 1961).
I was communicating with Eddie W (DOS June 16, 1961) whose sobriety date is
the
same day of the year as mine (only mine was in 1994). Although I'm not
certain as to the authenticity of this information, I am always thrilled
when I
receive congratulations on my sobriety date from Belgium, Canada, New Zeland
and
many US States.
I thought this list was rather interesting and would like to share it with
you.
Thanks for the great work in maintaining the History Lovers Website, and
thank
you for my sobriety.
Walt N
400313 Cynthia C
400511 Terry M
400815 Duke P
410414 Barry C
410417 Al M
410417 Tex A
411111 Clancy U
421010 Ed W
440610 Mary R
450111 Jack T
450613 Rosa B
450800 Cliff W
450929 Lib S
460106 Stan W
461111 Jack T
470630 Clinton F
470806 Larry S
471104 Steve H
480104 Frank B
480127 Wendy (from Iowa)
480401 Ann C
480614 David P
491231 Vernon L
500228 Leroy B
501117 Joe L
520318 John B
520909 Louise A
520918 William S
521115 Bev S
521225 Bob T
530101 Joseph J
530713 Howard A
530815 Jeff M
531105 Silva C
540419 Jack
540606 Cheeky Charley H
540828 Bill B
550427 Lee E
550715 Neill P5
551022 Jack B
560601 Bill C
560802 Millie W
560817 Richard S
560913 Isabelle Mac T
561229 Pinky H
570214 CJB
570219 Walt T
570330 John O
570404 John G
570424 Jack B
570502 Grace H
571117 Raymond M
571213 Leo R
570821 Jack C
580226 Henry R
580306 Jack H
580824 Frank H
580930 Dave H
581031 Diana H
590111 George S
590207 Ruth H
590407 Len L
590423 Lee L
590704 Rusty W
590919 George L
591217 Donald H
591224 Mike A
600104 Peter N
600205 Paul P
600214 Laurie P
600406 Jeff J
600504 Peter D
600508 Marti P
600717 John B
600725 Tom A
600923 Peter E
601002 Billie S
601027 Al C
601111 Hal K
601125 Keith M
601231 Reuben W
610104 Al W
610214 Tommie D
610306 Rosie (Al-anon) R
610401 Cactus Pete P
610515 Dorothy E
610616 Eddie W
610927 Al M
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++++Message 6445. . . . . . . . . . . . 1970 copy of This Is AA pamphlet
From: Jim Hoffman . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/6/2010 6:25:00 PM
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I have a copy of the 1970 pamphlet in an adobe file, if anyone would like.
Please send me an email at:
(jhoffma6 at tampabay.rr.com)
We have a 1966 copy in our archives and a 1980 copy that says Revised.
I have not yet compared them, but there seems to have been revisions.
Archives in GSO was kind enough to send me this 1970 adobe copy when I
inquired.
The most recent printing seems to be 2009
Momaria
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++++Message 6446. . . . . . . . . . . . AA # 28 Gene E in NYC
From: jomo . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/10/2010 11:55:00 AM
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Gene Edmiston was a member of my home group in 1970's in Southern
California.
Gene was among our longest sober members on the W Coast of USA at the time.
His
story is quite revealing as he first came to AA in NYC just three months
after
the 1st printing of the Big Book in 1939. Gene was 12 stepped by a friend,
Paul
Stanley and went to Oxford Group with Bill W, Hank P, Fitz M and the rest of
the
NYC bunch. "I reached AA in July 4th weekend of 1939. I was the 28th AA
member, according to Bill Wilson, in AA." (!!)
In his story, Gene talks about the first NY meetings:
"When I reached AA, there were only 3 people in New York including Bill
Wilson, that had better than two years' sobriety. Bill had four, Parkhurst
had three, and Fitzie Mayo had two. There were less than ten of us around
New
York. So our meetings for nearly a year, weren't meetings. It was just
gatherings, we'd get together, Bill would lead, and we'd talk back and forth
to Bill.
"I'll tell you how they got away from the Oxford Group, if you don't mind.
See, for the first four years, it was religion, strictly. well, it happened
a
few of them were attending the Oxford Group in New York, including Bill,
because
they weren't affiliated with a church. But some of the other boys were going
to Protestant Churches, the Catholic Church, and others, two or three of
them.
"I went to the Oxford Group with those boys; wouldn't be over two or three
of
us at a time. The ladies, wives, would go in and sit down; out the men would
come, smoke cigarettes, talk about baseball, everything.
But they weren't stressing their experience of drinking (at the OG
meetings).
They weren't getting religion there, it was spiritual. They were studying
the
Lord's Prayer, and "Sermon on the Mount" by Emmett Fox. We used "Sermon
on the Mount" for a couple of years after we got our Big Book. That's where
they got the idea for the formation of our Program.
"And the reason they didn't bring Christ into the Program is, they wanted it
to be spiritual. Practically all religions practice the principles that we
are
practicing in AA. But we don't say "Christ" in it. They wanted everyone
who came in here, not be offended from a religious standpoint. Now if a
person
of the Jewish faith would come in, and hear Jesus Christ discussed, he
wouldn't feel comfortable, don't you see? And they got that idea out of
'Sermon on the Mount'."
Bill W promised Gene that when the BB was reprinted, Gene's story "The Booze
Fighter" would be included. But after a year, Gene got drunk and by the time
he
got back in the early 1940's his chance to get into the BB was lost. Gene
was
a wonderful, gentle giant of a man, an elder statesman in the finest sense.
I
knew him for about 8 years in my home group until I moved away in 1979, and
Gene
passed away a few years after that, he died sober and surrounded by AA
friends.
His full story can be read at...
http://www.silkworth.net/aahistory/genee_aa38.html
Gene's signature and that of his sponsor Paul Stanley, appear in the first
AA
Big Book ever sold at a meeting. This book was purchased at Bill and Lois'
home at a meeting in 1939 by Virginia McLeod and is now in AA Archives.
The many signatures collected by Virginia in this book include early members
including Bill and Bob and Ebby, and some surprises like Jack Alexander.
This
collection of signatures is fodder for its' own discussion thread. See it at
http://www.barefootsworld.net/aa-nellwing.html Nell Wing's story, and scroll
to a download link for a Word document.
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