Seismic Risk Assessment for
Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet”
for the Groningen field
Addendum to:
Induced Seismicity in Groningen
Assessment of Hazard,
Building Damage and Risk
(November 2017)
June 2018
By Jan van Elk, Assaf Mar-Or, Leendert Geurtsen, Per Valvatne, Eddy Kuperus and Dirk Doornhof
© EP2018 Dit rapport is een weerslag van een voortdurend studie- en dataverzamelingsprogramma en bevat de
stand der kennis van mei 2018. Het copyright van dit rapport ligt bij de Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. Het
copyright van de onderliggende studies berust bij de respectievelijke auteurs. Dit rapport of delen daaruit mogen
alleen met een nadrukkelijke status-en bronvermelding worden overgenomen of gepubliceerd.
Seismic Risk Assessment for Production Scenario “Basispad Kabinet” for the Groningen field - June 2018
3
Contents
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 5
References ................................................................................................................................................ 7
1
Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 8
1.1
References .................................................................................................................................. 12
2
Production scenarios definition .......................................................................................................... 13
2.1
“Basispad Kabinet” for a Cold/Average/Warm temperature profile (Expectation Letter). ........ 13
2.2
Spatial distribution of production ............................................................................................... 16
2.3
Production fluctuations .............................................................................................................. 18
2.4
Model implementation ............................................................................................................... 19
2.5
References .................................................................................................................................. 22
3
Production scenario results ................................................................................................................ 23
3.1
“Basispad Kabinet” – Average Temperature .............................................................................. 23
3.2
“Basispad Kabinet” – Cold Temperature .................................................................................... 29
3.3
“Basispad Kabinet” – Warm Temperature .................................................................................. 34
3.4
Comparing scenarios ................................................................................................................... 38
3.5
Impact of cold and warm temperature on HRA .......................................................................... 40
3.6
References .................................................................................................................................. 41
4
Event Rate and Hazard Assessment .................................................................................................... 42
4.1
Event Rate Forecasting ............................................................................................................... 42
4.2
Hazard Assessment ..................................................................................................................... 45
4.3
References .................................................................................................................................. 58
5
Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................................. 59
5.1
Local Personal Risk ...................................................................................................................... 59
5.2
Maps of Buildings Exceeding the Meijdam-Norm ...................................................................... 74
5.3
Structural Upgrading Program .................................................................................................... 80
5.4
References .................................................................................................................................. 81
Appendix A – Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................ 82
Appendix B – Verwachtingenbrief aanvulling Winningsplan Groningenveld 2016 .................................... 83
Appendix C – Implementation of the M
max
Distribution in the Hazard Assessment .................................. 89
C.1
References .................................................................................................................................. 92