|
April 22nd-28th 2023 Ukraine’s game planThe EconomistBread and circuses
B
read and
circuses offered a path to so
cial peace, according to Juvenal, a Ro
man satirist. Britain’s latest inflation data,
published on April 19th and covering the
year up to the end of March, would have
given him cause for concern. Surging costs
for food and recreation have kept the an
nual rate of price growth in double figures.
Food first. Higher energy prices follow
ing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have
raised the cost of fertiliser; heatwaves last
year curtailed the growing season of Brit
ain’s trade partners. Prices of olive oil,
mainly imported from Spain, were up by
49% as unseasonably warm weather hurt
production. Many staple foods, which ac
count for a big share of poorer households’
spending, have been badly hit. The infla
tion rate for bread and cereals, at 19.4%, is
the highest since the Office for National
Statistics began tracking it in 1989.
The source of the surge in the price of
“recreation and culture”, as that statistical
category is known, is harder to pin down:
the composition of videogame bestseller
charts can have an outsize effect on the
monthtomonth rate. But rises there,
alongside those in food, were enough to
offset most of the fall in the price of petrol.
That left inflation virtually unchanged at
10.1%, down only slightly from the 10.4%
posted in February.
Britain’s postpandemic inflation rate
is staying stubbornly higher than that of
many of its peers (see chart). Economists
had expected it to fall to 9.8% in March.
Figures for the euro zone, released on the
same day, showed that the rate of inflation
in the bloc fell to 6.9%, despite many of the
same pressures on food and energy prices
after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This difference is partly a matter of tim
ing. Britons are not yet enjoying the effects
of lower wholesale gas prices. The inter
play between the energy price cap (
EPC
),
limiting the amount that suppliers can
charge customers, and the energyprice
guarantee, which fixes the unit rate that
households pay, means that there is not as
tight a link between consumer and whole
sale gas prices as in the rest of Europe. In
Spain, where consumer prices track the
wholesale price more closely, yearonyear
inflation in March was just 3.1%.
Headline inflation will fall sharply next
month in Britain, however, owing to “base
effects” rather than to any positive eco
nomic news. The first upward revision of
the price cap after Russia’s invasion of Uk
raine was in April 2022, which means it
will fall out of the yearonyear figures next
month. Consumer gas prices in April 2023
will therefore be 27% higher than a year
earlier, rather than 96% as in March. That
will reduce the headline inflation rate next
month by around 1.7 percentage points, ac
cording to economists at Investec, a bank.
Good news may also soon show up in
the form of lower food prices. An index of
international commodity prices from the
UN
’s Food and Agriculture Organisation
found that food costs in March were 20%
lower than a year earlier, when prices
spiked after Russia invaded.
Once food and energy are excluded,
Britain’s inflation experience seems more
typically European. Socalled core infla
tion, which strips out these two categories,
remained stable at 6.2% in Britain in
March; in the euro zone it increased slight
ly to 5.7%, from 5.6% in February. Spain
may be enjoying a much lower headline
rate of inflation but the “core” rate is 7.5%,
higher than in Britain.
Investors have nonetheless increased
their bets that the Bank of England will lift
interest rates, to 4.5% from 4.25%, at its
next meeting on May 11th. Market pricing
now implies that the main policy rate will
peak at closer to 5% in November, rather
than 4.75%. That may also be because of la
bourmarket figures, published on April
18th, showing that the rate of wage growth
was slowing but still remained high (at
6.6% during the three months to Febru
ary). Bread and circuses may be in short
supply, but jobs are not. And that combina
tion is not good for inflation.
n
Dostları ilə paylaş: |
|
|