Iste’mol xarajatlariga ta’sir etuvchi omillar dinamikasi
Yillar
Aholi
jon
boshiga
iste’mol
(AQSH
dollari)*
Aholi
jon
boshiga
YaIM
(AQSH
dollari)**
Markaziy
Bankning
asosiy
stavkasi,
%
(oʻrta
qiymatlarda)***
Y
X
1
X
2
2000
422,17
558,23
28,3
2001
350,71
456,71
24
2002
292,82
383,34
30
2003
291,68
396,38
26
2004
320,63
465,12
19
2005
362,38
546,78
16
2006
427,03
654,28
15
2007
559,52
830,41
14
2008
713,57
1 082,29
14
2009
849,16
1 213,27
14
2010
1 315,63
1 742,35
14
2011
1 512,66
2 051,13
12
2012
1 708,23
2 267,62
12
2013
1 889,25
2 419,72
12
2014
2 029,91
2 628,46
10
2015
2 181,68
2 753,97
9
2016
2 194,22
2 704,68
9
Journal of Economy, Tourism and Service
Vol. 2, No. 4, 2023 ISSN: 2181-435X
10
2017
1 483,63
1 916,76
11,5
2018
1 212,84
1 597,07
14,5
2019
1 359,94
1 784,01
16
2020
1 321,00
1 749,66
15
2021
1 519,12
1 983,06
14
Manba: *Jahon Banki,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.TOTL.CD [17].
**Jahon Banki,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
[20].
***Oʻz.Res. Mark. Bank,
https://cbu.uz/oz/monetary-policy/refinancing-rate/# [16].
Tahlil va natijalar.
Dastlab biz omillar oʻrtasida korrelatsiya matritsasini Gretl dasturi yordamida shakllantirdik (2-
jadval).
2-jadval
Omillar orasidagi korrelyatsiya koeffitsientlari matritsasi
4-rasm. Omillar oʻrtasidagi korrelyatsion bogʻlanish
Korrelatsion tahlil natijalari (2-jadval) shuni koʻrsatadiki, iste’mol xarajatlari (Y) va daromadlar
(X
1
) oʻrtasida kuchli chiziqli (toʻgʻri) bogʻliqlik mavjud. Korrelatsiya koeffitsienti 0,99 boʻlib, bu
Cheddok shkalasiga koʻra korrelatsiya koeffitsienti 0,7 dan oshsa, kuchli korrelayatsion bogʻlanish
X
1
X
2
Y
1,0000
-0,7977
0,9979
X
1
1,0000
-0,7726
X
2
1,0000
Y
Journal of Economy, Tourism and Service
Vol. 2, No. 4, 2023 ISSN: 2181-435X
11
hisoblanadi. Shuningdek, iste’mol xarajatlari (Y) va foizlar (X
2
) oʻrtasida kuchli chiziqli (teskari)
bogʻliqlik mavjud. Korrelatsiya koeffitsienti -0,77. Tahlillar natijasiga koʻra X
1
va X
2
omillarining
𝑌
ga
ta’siri statistik ahamiyatga ega ekanligi aniqlandi. Model boʻyicha koʻp omilli chiziqli regressiya
natijalar quyida aks etgan (3-jadval).
3-jadval
Koʻp omilli chiziqli regressiya natijalar (Eng kichik kvadratlar usuli boʻyicha)
koeffitsient
Standard
xatolik
t statistika
P-qiymat
const
−241,849
56,4153
−4,287
0,0004
***
X1
0,842627
0,0160013
52,66
<0,0001
***
X2
7,21010
2,22876
3,235
0,0044
***
R-kvadrat
0,997257
Algebraik koʻrinishda 3-jadvalda keltirilgan model quyidagicha boʻladi:
𝑌 = 0,84𝑋
1
+ 7,21𝑋
2
− 241,84
5-rasm. Chiziqli regressiya modeli
Journal of Economy, Tourism and Service
Vol. 2, No. 4, 2023 ISSN: 2181-435X
12
Xulosa.
3-jadvaldan koʻrishimiz mumkinki, har bir omil p qiymatning qiymatlariga koʻra 99% ishonchlilik
darajasida statistik ahamiyatga ega. Model natijalarni quyidagicha izohlash mumkin: daromadlar (X
1
)
darajasining 1 AQSH dollariga oshishi iste’mol xarajatlarining (Y) 0,84 AQSH dollariga oshishiga,
foizlarning (X
2
) 1 foizga ortishi iste’mol xarajatlarining (Y) 7,21 AQSH dollariga kamayishi bilan
kuzatiladi. Yuqorida shakllantirilgan model R kvadrat qiymatiga koʻra erksiz oʻzgaruvchi: Y-iste’mol
xarajatlari koʻrsatkichi oʻzgarishining 99%ni tushuntirib beradi.
Tadqiqotimiz natijasiga koʻra iste’mol xarajatlariga daromadlar darajasi eng kuchli ta’sir
koʻrsatadi. Foizlarning oʻzgarishi ham iste’mol xarajatlarining oʻzgarishida muhim ahamiyatga ega
ekan.
Adabiyotlar / References:
1.
Keynes, John Maynard. 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
London: Macmillan
2.
Friedman, Milton. 1957. A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton: Princeton
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3.
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implications and tests. American Economic Review 53: 55–84.
4.
Modigliani, Franco, and Richard Brumberg. 1954. Utility analysis and the consumption
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5.
Carroll, Christopher D. 1994. How does future income affect current consumption? Quarterly
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6.
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John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates:
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H.
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TADBIRKORLIK
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rate/#
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Jahon Banki,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.TOTL.CD
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Jahon Banki,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
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