We did not want to write
a report about sustainable
film businesses without taking a look of some of the
key trends that might affect companies’ ability to
become sustainable. Most of these are to do with
trends observed in the various markets for
film product.
7.1
Understanding today’s audiences
for film
If the old mantra was ‘content is king’, then today’s
world sees the consumer as queen. The explosion in
social media has had a huge levelling effect on the
way people see, use and absorb film. By 2015, 380
million people globally will view online video via
connected devices such as TVs, games consoles or
set-top boxes
9
. This new flattened media world is
affecting the traditional film industry too.
Simply put, it is the consumer who will determine
how the industry will grow rather than the industry
pushing change on the consumer.
This shift can be especially seen in the exhibition
business, where cinemas can no longer rely on
repeat business. With so many screens competing
for people’s attention, cinema chains have innovated
to retain customers.
With an ageing population, chains such as Curzon
in Britain, Village in Australia and Folkets Hus
och Parker in Sweden have innovated to attract
older patrons. Curzon, which operates a chain
of upmarket cinemas across London, has talked
about positioning itself as a niche premium brand.
Australian chain Village runs sophisticated Gold
Class Cinemas within its multiplexes. Rivals Hoyts
and Event Cinemas have their own versions of
the upmarket cinema screen concept with better
seating and waiter service. In Sweden, Folkets
Hus och Parker broadcasts live opera and ballet
from venues including the Metropolitan Opera in
New York. Incumbent Swedish multiplex operator
SF Bio has targeted the opposite demographic,
creating baby and toddler-friendly screens with
softer sound and frequent breaks in the film for
taking care of children’s needs.
According to the World Health Organisation, 10 per
cent of this ageing population will be aged over
65 by 2025. This ageing population is affecting
the kinds of films that are being made. In Britain
in particular, the success of The King’s Speech has
encouraged one sub-genre: films aged at filmgoers
aged over 50. Distributors are chasing after the
‘silver pound’. Tim Bevan, co-chairman of Working
Title (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) believes this older
audience is far more reliable than a younger one
more interested in computer games
10
.
The changes going on in the global film industry
are not only about encouraging consumers to get
out of the home and into the cinema. This would be
a subject for a whole separate report – consumer
choice – in terms of formats and delivery systems,
let alone the challenge to the industry of piracy
and illegal download. Some related issues are
addressed in following sections. But suffice it to
say, film producers have the opportunity as well as
the need to move closer to the ultimate consumer,
and understanding (and predicting) consumer
behaviour has become increasingly important for
all forms of digital media content.
State of the markets
Section 7.0
Building sustainable film businesses:
the challenges for industry and government
27
9.
Cottle, Giles ‘OTT TV viewers to outnumber IPTV viewers in 2013’
Informa Telecoms & Media, March 22 2011.
10.
Tim Bevan interview, October 31 2011.
7.2
Global markets meta-analysis
Despite deep recession in many countries, film
has continued to demonstrate its strength as
a consumer product. PricewaterhouseCoopers
predicts that global entertainment and media
spending will reach $1.9 trillion in 2015. Admissions
in all major markets have recovered from a small
slump in 2007-8, and gross box office has continued
to grow year on year.
As to which countries will experience the greatest
growth over the next few years, the BRIC countries
will, unsurprisingly, lead the pack. China is expected
to experience the fastest growth. The Chinese filmed
entertainment sector will grow by 217.6% between
2010 and 2015, reaching $6.25 billion; India will be
the second fastest growing sector, with revenue
increasing by 66.8% to $3.1 billion; and Russia will
be in third place with 66.1% growth to reach $2.55
billion
11
. Brazil meanwhile will see growth increase
by 51.3% to $2.1 billion.
7.3
Distribution trends
Distributors have benefited financially from the
growth of Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD)
services competing for new subscribers, pushing
up prices paid for film rights. The prospect of SVOD
services offering film buffs any film from catalogues
running into thousands of titles is enticing greater
viewership.
In 2011 SVOD became more popular than free-
to-view/catch-up TV in the USA. Screen Digest
estimates there will be 3.3 billion SVOD movie views
in the USA this year, outstripping the number of
physical rentals and DVD purchases combined
12
.
No wonder US streaming service Netflix was so keen
to launch its UK online video service in January.
However, Netflix faces stiff competition from
incumbents Sky and LoveFilm, which has well over
1 million customers alone. Informa predicts that by
2015, 27 million people in the UK will be watching
Over-the-Top (OTT) TV services, which also include
the BBC’s iPlayer and YouTube
13
.
Independent producers will be hoping that these
new SVOD platforms will give a lease of life to older
library titles, generating additional income for them.
Many, however, are likely to be disappointed. A
recent Harvard Business Review study of Quickflix
(Australia’s version of Netflix) found that the top
10 movies accounted for 48 per cent of rentals. If
anything the tyranny of the blockbuster could be
getting worse.
7.4
Production trends
The sums involved in making Hollywood
blockbusters are so astronomical (according to the
Motion Picture Association of America, the average
studio movie cost $106.6 million to produce and
market in 2007, the most recent year for which
figures are available) the six Hollywood studios
have become ever more risk averse. That is why so
many of today’s blockbusters are based on existing
properties recognised by audiences. The audience
does not have to be sold an original concept.
Eighteen of the top 20 highest-grossing movies
of 2011 were based on pre-existing intellectual
property – either books, previous movies or, in the
case of Pirates of the Caribbean 4, previous movies
based on a fairground attraction. Only two movies,
Bridesmaids and Rio, were written directly for
the screen.
The independent sector too has realised the value
of films based on pre-existing properties. For
example, Sweden’s Yellow Bird has mined the work
of Scandinavian crime writers including Jo Nesbo
(Headhunters), Steig Larsson (The Girl With the
Dragon Tattoo) and Henning Mankel’s Wallander
to adapt into films and TV series. These shows have
been so successful that Yellow Bird has also co-
produced US English-language remakes of some
of the same properties. Independent producers
mining existing properties (television, books) for
film adaptation will be an increasing trend.
Section 7.0
l
State of the markets
Building sustainable film businesses:
the challenges for industry and government
28
11.
PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Entertainment and Media Outlook
2011-2015.
12.
Hooper, Richard ‘Latest Industry Trends’ Screen Digest/BSAC Film
Conference 2012.
13.
Cottle, Giles ‘OTT Viewers to Outnumber IPTV Viewers by 2013’
Informa Telecoms & Media, March 22 2011.