And the question is now how to handle
this delicate situation in a
strategically and geopolitically important region. So by controlling Georgia
(in case Russia reaches abovementioned aims), Russia actually will be able
to cut off Central Asia and Caspian resources. It means Russia would be able
to isolate and cut off Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries and it will signif-
icantly strengthen its energy monopoly over Europe with all results out com-
ing from that fact. So it’s about major shift in the energy policy and major shift
in geopolitics based on this energy policy and Russian energy monopoly.
The August war in Georgia demonstrated some risks associated with the
functioning of the transit energy corridor in the southern Caucasus. It also
demonstrated the need for broader security guarantees
for a region that is
vital to European and global energy security.
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Footnotes
1
At the time of the project’s inception, it was envisaged that the pipeline
would be filled primarily with Iranian gas. However, the complex geopolitical
situation around Iran, coupled with the current under-investment in the Iran-
ian hydrocarbons infrastructure that has turned
this country with colossal
reserves into a net importer of gas, has led to a shift of focus. Attention now
centres far more on Azerbaijan; specifically, on its offshore field of Shah Deniz.
Gas for Nabucco is expected to come from Phase II of the project, which could
provide the base load for the pipeline.
2
William Engdahl, War, Oil And Gas Pipelines, http://www.rense.com/
general85/fth.htm
3
John C.K. Daly, UPI, Analysis: Implications of Georgia leaving C.I.S.
http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2009/06/09/Analysis-Implica-
tions-of-Georgia-leaving-CIS/UPI-90981244588248/
4
Ariel Cohen, Eurasian pipelines - a forecaster’s nightmare, May 1, 2009,
http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed050109b.cfm
5
Marco Giuli, Georgia and Systemic Impact of the Financial Crisis. Cau-
casian Review
of International Affairs, Vol. 3 (3)-Summer 2009
48
Caucasus Journal of Social Sciences