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become
energy independent, the United States must preserve its supplies of finite domestic
energy resources, not export them. They argue that authorizing LNG exports will hasten the
depletion of this country’s natural gas resource base. In their view, investment in LNG exports
will take away from potential investment in renewable energy supplies, compounding this
country’s dependency on fossil fuels.
2.
DOE/FE Analysis
a.
Measures of Supply
Before turning to a consideration of the specific comments, it
is important to note the
various measures of natural gas supply.
DOE/FE notes that, by three measures of supply, there
are adequate natural gas resources to meet demand associated with the requested authorization.
Because these supply estimates have changed over time, however, DOE/FE will continue to
monitor them to inform future decisions. These estimates include:
i) AEO natural gas estimates of production, price, and other domestic industry
fundamentals. The AEO 2017 Reference case projection of dry natural gas production in 2035
increased significantly (by 27.9 Bcf/d) as compared with AEO 2011, while projections of
domestic natural gas consumption in 2035 also increased in AEO 2017 compared with AEO
2011 (by 11.3 Bcf/d). Even with higher production
and consumption, the 2035 projected natural
gas market price in the Reference case declined from $7.87/MMBtu (2016$) in AEO 2011 to
$5.09/MMBtu (2016$) in AEO 2017. The implication of the latest EIA projections in AEO 2017
is that a significantly greater quantity of natural gas is projected to be available at a lower cost
than estimated six years ago.
ii) Proved reserves of natural gas. Proved reserves of natural gas have been
increasing. Proved reserves are those volumes of oil and natural gas that geologic and
engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from
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known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. The R/P ratio measures the
number of years of production (P) that proved reserves (R) represent at current production rates.
Typically industry maintains proved reserves at about 10 years of production, but as Table 5
below demonstrates, reserves have increased from 9.2 years of production in 2000 to 13.9 years
of production in 2015, the latest year statistics are available. Of particular note is that, since
2000, proved reserves have increased 73 percent to 307,730 Bcf, while production
has increased
only 44 percent, demonstrating the growing supply of natural gas available under existing
economic and operating conditions.
Table 5: U.S. Dry Natural Gas Proved Reserves
199
Proved Reserves (R)
U.S. Dry Natural Gas Estimated
Production (P)
Year
(Bcf)
Percent change
versus year 2000
(Bcf)
Percent change
versus year 2000
R/P Ratio
- Years
2000
177,427
--
19,219
--
9.2
2005
204,385
15
18,458
-4
11.1
2010
304,625
72
22,239
16
13.7
2014
368,704
108
26,611
38
13.9
2015
307,730
73
27,818
44
11.1
iii) Technically recoverable resources (TRR). Technically recoverable resources have
also increased significantly.
Technically recoverable resources are resources in accumulations
producible using current recovery technology but without reference to economic profitability.
They include both proved reserves and unproved resources.
200
199
EIA,
U.S. Dry Natural Gas Proved Reserves (Feb. 8, 2017),
available at:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_enr_dry_dcu_nus_a.htm (additional calculations conducted to produce
percentage
change and R/P ratios).
200
Unproved resources are generally less well known and therefore less precisely quantifiable than proved
reserves, and their eventual recovery is less assured.
83
DOE/FE notes that EIA’s estimates of lower-48 natural gas TRR have increased from
1,816 Tcf in AEO 2010 to 1,871 Tcf in AEO 2016.
201
EIA notes that these levels represent the
starting values for the model, and that assumed future technological improvements in the model
add to the TRR while production subtracts from the TRR.
b.
Supply Impacts
The 2014 and 2015
Studies each conclude that, for the period of the analysis, the United
States is projected to have ample supplies of natural gas resources that can meet domestic needs
for natural gas and the LNG export market. Additionally, most projections of domestic natural
gas resources extend beyond 20 to 40 years. While not all TRR is currently economical to
produce, it is instructive to note that EIA’s recent estimate of TRR equates to nearly 69 years of
natural gas supply at the 2015 domestic consumption level of 27.31 Tcf.
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Moreover, given the
supply projections under each
of the above measures, we find that granting the requested
authorization is unlikely to affect adversely the availability of natural gas supplies to domestic
consumers such as would negate the net economic benefits to the United States.
We further find that, given these estimates of supply, the projected price
increases and
increased price volatility that could develop in response to a grant of the requested LNG export
authorization are not likely to negate the net economic benefits of the exports. This issue is
discussed below. With regard to the adequacy of supply, however, it bears noting that while
certain commenters contend that U.S. natural gas production would not be able to
meet unlimited
LNG exports and domestic demand, the 2015 Study supports a different conclusion. The 2015
201
See U.S. Energy Information Administration,
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (Jan. 2017
), Table
9.2. Technically recoverable U.S. dry natural gas resources as of January 1, 2014, at 133,
available at:
http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/0554(2016).pdf and U.S. Energy Information Administration,
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (Apr. 2010
), Table 9.2. Technically recoverable U.S. natural gas
resources as of January 1, 2008, at 111,
available at: http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/0554(2010).pdf.
202
See U.S. Energy Information, Natural Gas Consumption by End Use
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm (Feb. 8, 2017)