Microsoft PowerPoint Portada taller Jaguares

 

Recomendamos hacer efectivo un plan de concientización y capacitación en todos 

los niveles. 

 

Instituciones que pueden brindar apoyo: 

 

ANAM, Corredor Biológico Mesoamericano-Sector Panamá, Fundación Natura; 

ANCON, GTZ, USAID, STRI, JICA, ganaderos, ONG´s, Universidad de Panamá, 

Programa  de  Maestría  de  Educación  Ambiental, EDUCA, USA Peace Corps, autoridad 

del Canal y Peregrine Fund. 

 

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Taller

 

 

El papel de los Zoológicos de Mesoamérica y el 

Caribe en la Conservación de jaguares  

(Panthera onca) 

 

INFORME FINAL 

 

27 de noviembre – 01 de diciembre, 2000 

Parque Zoológico y Jardín Botánico Nacional Simón Bolívar 

San José, Costa Rica 

 

 

SECCIÓN XIII 

Metodología para analizar la viabilidad de poblaciones de 

jaguares en Mesoamérica 

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A Methodology for Analyzing the Viability of Jaguar Populations in 

Mesoamerica 

Philip Miller, CBSG 

Introduction 

The jaguar is currently distributed across Mesoamerica in a series of fragmented 

forest patches. As a result, and in the face of increased pressure from human 

activities across the region, each of these populations will face an increased risk of 

future population decline and perhaps even extinction. The Jaguar Conservation 

Program, initiated by the Wildlife Conservation Society, has identified a prioritized 

set of Jaguar Conservation Units from northern México to northern Argentina that 

can be used to identify specific activities for application to individual populations at 

risk. These Units are based largely on the identification of suitable jaguar habitat 

and the historical observation of jaguars in the area. 

In order to provide additional insight into the prioritization of these Conservation 

Units, it is necessary to focus our analysis at the population level. More 

specifically, an evaluation of age-specific population demography - rates of 

survival and reproduction - can provide valuable information to broaden our 

understanding of the future viability oaf population. However, very little of this 

kind of data exists for any jaguar population across Mesoamerica. In spite of this 

limitation, we used 

VORTEX

,

 

a software package for population viability analysis, as 

an instructive tool to stimulate discussion among workshop participants of the vital 

role that demographic data can play in evaluating risk of population decline and 

extinction 

VORTEX 

is a simulation of the effects of deterministic forces as well as demographic, 

environmental, and genetic stochastic (random or unpredictable) events on wild 

populations. 

VORTEX 

models population dynamics as discrete sequential events (e.g., 

births, deaths, sex ratios among offspring, catastrophes, etc.) that occur according 

to defined probabilities. The probabilities of events are modeled as constants or 

random variables that follow specified distributions. The package simulates a 

population by stepping through the series of events that describe the typical life 

cycles of many organisms. 

VORTEX 

is not intended to give absolute answers, since it is projecting the 

interactions of the many parameters used as input to the model and because of the 

random processes involved in nature. Interpretation of the output depends upon our 

knowledge of the biology of the jaguar, the environmental conditions affecting a 

given population, and possible future changes in these conditions. In fact, it quickly 

became clear during this workshop that a detailed analysis of individual jaguar 

population viability would not be possible due to the lack of suitable demographic 

data from the field. Consequently, the model was used to demonstrate the kinds of 

analyses that are possible and the ways in which it can be used to guide future 

research and management efforts. 

For a more detailed explanation of 

VORTEX 

and its use in population viability 

analysis, refer to Miller and Lacy (1999) and Lacy (2000). 

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VORTEX 

Model Input for a Hypothetical Jaguar Population 

In the absence of detailed demographic data on jaguar populations in the region, we 

constructed a purely hypothetical demographic dataset based on experience with 

other large felids. Therefore, we are not saying that the results from these models 

accurately reflect the predicted behavior of any of the jaguar population distributed 

across Mesoamerica. These models are purely for demonstration purposes and will 

hopefully motivate others to collect the data necessary to refine them to more 

accurately simulate actual jaguar populations. 

Breeding System; Monogamous 

Age of First Reproduction: 

VORTEX 

precisely defines reproduction as the time at 

which offspring are born, not simply the age of sexual maturity. The program uses 

the mean age rather than the earliest recorded age of offspring production. We 

assumed that reproduction could begin at three year of age for both males and 

females, although we recognize that breeding in males may be delayed because of 

competition for females. 

Age of Reproductive Senescence: 

VORTEX 

initially assumes that animals can 

reproduce (at the normal rate) throughout their adult life. We assumed for this 

exercise that the maximum age of breeding among wild jaguars is twelve years. 

However, older individuals may have considerably more difficulty establishing 

and/or maintaining territories, thereby leading to a reduced reproductive output. 

This feature can be included in the specification of reproductive success when more 

detailed models are developed in the future. 

Offspring Production: For this demonstration, we assumed that an average of75% 

of adult females breed (more specifically, produce a litter of cubs) annually. In 

retrospect, this value is probably too high as the interbirth interval among wild 

jaguar populations is likely to be around two years. 

In addition, the distribution of possible litter sizes among successful adult females 

is as follows: 

1    40% 

2    50% 

3    10% 

This distribution yields a mean litter size of 1.7 cubs per successful adult female. 

However, this may be a bit high as an analysis of the captive population indicates 

an average litter size of 1.45. Those who perform additional modeling of 

Mesoamerican jaguar populations should study this parameter in more detail. 

Data across islands suggest a sex ratio (percent males) among newborn pups 

of50%. 

Annual environmental variation in female reproduction is modeled in 

VORTEX 

by 

specifying a standard deviation (SD) for the proportion of adult females that 

successfully breed within a given year. We assumed a standard deviation in this 

parameter of 10%. 

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