Naval postgraduate school monterey, california thesis

I. INTRODUCTION 
 
We sleep safe in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to 
visit violence on those who would do us harm—George Orwell 
At any given day there are approximately ten to twelve American citizens 
(AMCITS) held hostage somewhere around the world
1
. Some of these hostages have 
dual citizenship; others have retired from a lifetime of government service. I have 
personally been involved with tracking some of these AMCITS and trying to recover 
them. I have seen the intelligence and data concerning their precise locations and have 
been ready to go and rescue them. On every instance policymakers turned down the 
rescue option. 
Ever since the ill-fated rescue attempt in Iran, the United States has been reluctant 
to commit military forces for hostage rescue operations. This reluctance is attributed in 
part to a risk adverse senior military leadership, stemming from disasters at DESERT 
ONE in 1980 and at Mogadishu in 1993, and to the uncertainty levels in a hostage crisis
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environment that result during a hostage ordeal. National-level interest in this area has 
been limited, resulting in pusillanimous policy made by U.S. Government officials to 
deal with hostage incidents worldwide. If U.S. military forces and their policy makers 
are going to be successful in the conduct of these high-risk operations, a clear and concise 
U.S. policy must be developed with a thorough understanding of the principles for 
hostage rescue operations and their metamorphosis throughout the hostage crisis 
biorhythm.
This thesis develops a model for hostage rescue operations, by defining the four 
principles required for their success and explaining the phenomenon of a hostage crisis 
biorhythm 
using personal experiences, case studies, and mathematical models. A 
thorough understanding of this biorhythm will provide planning guidelines to assess the 
1
Information gathered from conversations with Peter Gustaitis, Colonel, U.S. Army Special Forces, 
retired; former Deputy for Special Operations, Joint Staff. 
2
A 
crisis
is defined as an incident or situation involving a threat to the U.S., its territories, citizens, 
military forces and possessions or vital interests that develops rapidly and creates a condition of such 
diplomatic, economic, political, or military importance that commitment of U.S. military forces and 
resources is contemplated to achieve national objectives (FM 100-25, 1999, Glossary-7) 

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best windows of opportunity for a proposed rescue attempt. Furthermore, this thesis will 
help the reader become a better strategist during the planning, preparation, and execution 
of a hostage rescue operation. It will provide a thorough understanding of what makes 
these operations work, how to solve them successfully, and how to predict possible 
outcomes at different stages of the operation applying the principles of game theory.
The thesis follows four methodological steps. First, I will define some critical 
operational and doctrinal terms for hostage rescue operations. From here, I will extract 
and provide the four principles for success during hostage rescue operations and establish 
definitions for what I consider the 
biorhythm
phenomenon of a hostage crisis. I will also 
conduct a thorough description of all the phases of a military hostage rescue operation, 
reviewing current and proposed U.S. policy on hostage rescue operations. Second, I 
intend to use a single compelling case study (Operation CHAVIN DE HUANTAR) to 
illustrate the legitimacy of my hypothesis. This in-depth analysis will be structured 
following all phases of the rescue operation, outlining the critical factors that made the 
operation a total success and identifying the biorhythm of the operation. Third, I intend 
to describe the biorhythm of a hostage crisis using game theory principles, identifying the 
critical factors for a successful rescue attempt. These factors will be represented 
graphically to show that, throughout the course of a hostage crisis, they benefit the rescue 
force or the hostage takers differently, depending on the moment in time in the 
biorhythm. This model will present compelling evidence to reinforce my hypothesis and 
answer my research question. Fourth, I will introduce five more hostage rescue 
operations, and apply the biorhythm model to them to reinforce my hypothesis.