Russia 100419 Basic Political Developments

National Economic Trends

Bloomberg: Ruble Depreciates Most in Month Versus Dollar as Oil Tumbles

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-19/ruble-depreciates-most-in-month-versus-dollar-as-oil-tumbles.html
April 19, 2010, 3:52 AM EDT

By Denis Maternovsky

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- The ruble weakened the most in almost a month versus the dollar and depreciated from a 16-month high against the central bank’s currency basket after oil fell to below $82 a barrel on concern prices outpaced the recovery in demand.

The Russian currency lost 0.7 percent to 29.2174 per dollar by 10:51 a.m. in Moscow, heading for its worst decline since March 22. It weakened 0.2 percent to 39.2750 per euro.

Crude for May delivery dropped as much as 1.9 percent to $81.66 in New York amid concern the commodity’s climb to an 18- month high had outstripped demand and as the dollar strengthened against the euro, reducing the investment appeal of commodities. The slide followed a 2.7 percent decline on April 16, the most in 10 weeks, after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission accused Goldman Sachs Group Inc. of fraud, triggering a selloff in commodity and equity markets globally as the suit spurred concern fallout from the financial crisis isn’t over.

Investors increased bets that the ruble will weaken further, with non-deliverable forwards showing the currency at 29.45 per dollar in three months compared with an NDF of 29.32 on April 16. The contracts are a guide to expectations of currency movements as they allow foreign investors and companies to fix the exchange rate at a particular level in the future.

The movements against the dollar and the euro left the ruble at 33.7371, retreating from the strongest level since December 2008, against the central bank’s target currency basket, which is used to manage swings that hurt Russian exporters.

The basket is calculated by multiplying the dollar’s rate to the ruble by 0.55, the euro to ruble rate by 0.45, then adding them together. The ruble remains within the 26 to 41 band the central bank pledged January 2009 to defend.

--Editors: John Kohut, Alex Nicholson.

To contact the reporter on this story: Denis Maternovsky in Moscow at [e-mail]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at [e-mail]

April 19, 2010 10:28

Interfax: Dollar, euro gain against ruble on declining oil prices

http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=159349
MOSCOW. April 19 (Interfax) - The dollar and euro posted gains against the ruble at the open of trading on the MICEX currency exchange amid declining oil prices and negative trends on stock exchanges abroad.

The dollar opened at 29.15-29.215 rubles/$1 in "tom" contracts, or 29.18 rubles/$1 on average in the first few minutes of trading. That is 15-16 kopecks above the close on Friday and the official exchange rate.

The euro opened at 39.3 rubles/1 euro, 9 kopecks above the previous close and 3 kopecks above the Central Bank exchange rate.

The bicurrency basket ($0.55 and 0.45 euro) rose to 33.72-33.73 rubles, 11-12 kopecks above the previous close.

Jh

Bloomberg: Russia to Sell 5, 10-Year Eurobonds, First Since ’98 (Update1)

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-19/russia-to-sell-5-10-year-eurobonds-first-since-98-update1-.html

April 19, 2010, 3:34 AM EDT

(Adds investor meetings in second paragraph.)

By Denis Maternovsky

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Russia plans to offer five- and 10- year dollar bonds in its first international debt sale since the 1998 financial crisis, according to three bankers with knowledge of the transaction.

Russian officials are meeting investors in Los Angeles today, San Francisco tomorrow and New York on April 21, after covering European and Asian cities last week.

The Russian government has said it plans to borrow as much as $17.8 billion abroad this year. It’s selling at a time when yields on emerging-market debt are near all-time lows on confidence in the economic recovery and record-low global interest rates.

Government officials, including Finance Minster Alexei Kudrin, have indicated the sale may be less than the official target for 2010 after a surge in commodity prices boosted the economy.

Russia hired Barclays Capital, Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse Group AG and VTB Capital on Feb. 5 to arrange the sale. The government’s debt is rated BBB by Standard & Poor’s, two levels above non-investment grade, and one step higher at Baa1 at Moody’s Investors Service.

--With assistance from Caroline Hyde and Sonja Cheung in London. Editor: Gavin Serkin

To contact the reporter on this story: Denis Maternovsky in Moscow at [e-mail]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at [e-mail]

19.04.2010 - RIA NOVOSTI/banki.ru

Cbonds: Russia’s finance ministry gives no confirmation to reports about Eurobond size and yields

http://www.cbonds.info/all/eng/news/index.phtml/params/id/459545

RIA NOVOSTI. The finance ministry of Russia does not confirm reports about the possible size or yield rates of Russian Eurobonds that reached the media on Friday with reference to sources, the ministry’s press service reported.

The Russian Federation launched a road show for sovereign Eurobonds on April 13 in Frankfurt and Munich. On April 14 meetings with investors were held in London and Singapore, on April 15 in Hong Kong, a meeting with investors in Bostin should take place on April 16, in Los Angeles on April 19, in San Francisco on April 20 and in New York on April 21.

As various source said, the first tranche of Russia’s sovereign bonds could amount to $3—5 bln, but the exact size of the Eurobond issue will be defined after receipt of investor bids upon completion of the road show.

In addition, many experts say that the Eurobond placement will be much bigger in size. As for the Eurobond’s yield rate, in line with various viewpoints of experts, it could be equal to 4.5—5.5%.

It was not possible to obtain official comments from representatives of the finance ministry or arranging banks about the size of the first tranche and the yield rate of the sovereign Eurobonds. Barclays Capital, Citibank, Credit Suisse and VTB Capital were appointed Eurobond arrangers.