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production of staple foods, while the high share of population under or close to the poverty line
inhibit access to and affordability of food. Political risk and corruption frequently compound
structural difficulties in these countries. European Mediterranean countries have a more diversified
diet and a higher consumption of protein but they show also higher obesity levels. Moreover
economic problems and unemployment have eroded affordability of food for lower income
population.
A new index to measure the state of food global food security is the Global Food Security Index that
considers the core issues of affordability, availability, and quality across a set of 109 countries. The
index is a dynamic quantitative and qualitative benchmarking model, constructed from 28 unique
indicators, that measures these drivers of food security across both developing and developed
countries. The following data show a very low score for Algeria and Syria.
Table 14 - Global Food Security Index in some SEMC 2012
Overall score
Affordability
Availability
Quality
and
Safety
GFS Rank
France
83,8
84,2
81,7
89
9
Portugal
80,5
79,7
78,0
89,6
16
Spain
78,9
82,1
73,4
86,0
16
Israel
78,9
81,8
74,0
85,4
19
Italy
77,0
82,8
69,6
82,9
22
Turkey
66,0
62,9
67,7
69,1
39
Egypt
61,8
55,6
67,9
60,9
47
Serbia
61,5
65,7
57,0
63,3
49
Tunisia
60,1
56,1
62,6
62,9
51
Morocco
53,9
49,6
57,9
53,9
62
Algeria
50,9
47,5
55,0
47,8
68
Syria
40,6
36,6
41,8
47,2
84
Source: The Global Food Security Index, The
Economist Intelligence Unit, 2015
In Mediterranean countries the water food nexus is influenced by consumption patterns and food
wastage. In the Mediterranean diet, the contribution of vegetable products to total dietary energy
still prevails, but the consumption of meat and dairy products, which are highly relevant in terms of
water consumption, is increasing. Of all food produced globally, about 30 to 50 percent is not eaten
and the amount of food lost or wasted every year is equivalent to more than half of the world annual
cereal crop (2.3 billion tons in 2009–2010). In the Near East region, along the whole production
chain, 10 to 15 percent of non-perishables (e.g., grains—about 25 percent in the rice supply chain)
and up to 60 percent of perishables, are lost (e.g., wheat total loss in Egypt, from harvesting until
baking, accounts for 13 to 15 percent). For farmers and merchants, losses in grain and pulses range
from 4 to 10 percent. Furthermore, post-cooking losses are also significant.
These factors call production and consumption models in SEMCs into question. Actually,
it is fair to
question the sustainability of their agricultural systems, since by mainly focusing on irrigated
cultivation—fruit and vegetables—water consumption in the agricultural sector appear to be too
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high in comparison with the scarce water resource endowment of these countries. More sustainable
production and consumption patterns could reduce the strong pressure on water resources as well
as the food dependency ratio.
PRIMA will therefore address these important issues with its set of actions, from research to
innovation, from networking to capacity building and training.
Project title
Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Cropping Pattern in the MENA Region Egypt, Jordan, Yemen
Objectives of the action
Global climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture and food security. This is especially so in the
Middle East/North Africa (MENA) because of rainfall and groundwater scarcity. This project man aim was
“Improving management is one of the most effective options in most agricultural systems, to increase water use
efficiency” and it included number of reports that included the cropping patterns and examines the agricultural
practices of the three MENA countries Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen, and looks closely at strategic crops and model
input data in these nations.
These reports were result of a desk-review; its intention was to study the impact of various climate change
scenarios on crop yield and water requirements for the selected crops in each country. The CROPWAT model
developed by the Land and Water Development Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization FAO was used
for this research as a decision-support system.
Results and impacts
In general, this study indicates that CROPWAT can be successfully used to assess potential impacts of climate
change on cropping patterns. The model is user-friendly and simple. Agricultural cropping patterns should be
enhanced to cope with anticipated climate change. Adoption of improved agricultural practices and
technologies in general will be needed to cope with the constraints imposed by future climate change.
CROPWAT is a tool Model used to have pre prediction to the impact of climate change on the agriculture pattern
in the future, so it’s better to use real data for climate, soil and crop that measured for the three studies
countries rather than using the available data in the FAO database in order to have model results that reflect
the actual values of crop water requirement and yield reduction. The model activities in this research focus only
on effects of climate change on crop water requirement. More constraints should be taken into consideration
in future research
including social, political, and economic aspects in optimizing the crop mix and water use.