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Environmental Impacts
Climate
According to IPCC emissions scenarios, high temperatures are projected to affect all aspects of
hydrological cycle. The Euro-mediterranean Centre on Climatic Change (CMCC) forecast for the 2050
in the Mediterranean region an increase in the temperature around 2°C, a rainfall reduction
between 5% and 10% and a major frequency and intensity of extreme wheater events.
Table 2 - Ar5 IPCC scenarios for temperature variations on global scale to 2100
Scenario
Temperature rise compared to
period 1986-2005
Temperature rise compared to pre-
industrial period
RCP2.6
0,3°C-1,7°C
1°C-2,3°C
RCP4.5
1,1°C-2,6°C
1,7°C-3,3°C
RCP6.0
1,4°C-3,1°C
2°C-3,7°C
RCP8.5
2,6°C-4,8°C
3,2°C-5,4°C
Source: Elaboration on Ipcc data, 2013.
Climatic change and population growth are jointly stretching the global water demand–supply gap
at an alarming rate. Projections for 2025 show an increasing percentage of people with a very low
availability of annual renewable water.
Table 3 - Water supply
In the Mediterranean region, total renewable water resources per capita have steadily decreased
in the last few decades and, according to a World Bank datasheet, in SEMCs only Turkey and
Lebanon exceeded the threshold of 1,000 m3/inhabitant/year in 2013. C
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Table 4 -Total renewable water resources per capita (cubic meter).
Source: elaboration on World Bank data, 2015.
The global per capita water availability scenario for 2025 shows a critical situation for SEMCs in
Mediterranean area.
Table 5 - Water availability
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Human pressure on water resources is measured by the Water Exploitation Index (WEI). In the
Mediterranean region many SEMCs are reaching the alarming level of full exploitation of all
renewable water resources.
Table 6 - Annual freshwater withdrawal as % of total actual renewable water resources
Source: FAO. AQUASTAT database, 2015.
Projections for 2025 forecasts a worsening in freshwater stress for Mediterranean countries and
all over the world.
Table 7 - Freshwater Stress (1995-2025)
Source: Water Policy and Strategy of UNEP, 2015.
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The water-food nexus explains the dominant role of agriculture in water allocation between
different economic sectors. According to World Bank and FAO datasheets, agriculture is the largest
user of water at the global level and it accounts for more than eighty per cent of total water use in
many SEMCs, in comparison with a world average of seventy per cent. The highest percentages of
agricultural water withdrawal are recorded for Syria (88 per cent), Morocco (87 per cent), Egypt (86
per cent) and Libya (83 per cent).
Table 8 - Annual freshwater withdrawals, sectors % of total freshwater withdrawal
Source: World Bank, 2014.
The evolution of global water use shows a major increase of withdrawal and consumption by
agricultural sector in comparison with other sectors.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
domestic
Industry
agriculture
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Table 9 – Global Water use
In Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMC’s) climatic change significantly impacts
agriculture, limiting crop productivity through increasing water demand and reducing water
availability. National Rainfall Indices in SEMCs show a strong variability and a decreasing trend that
affects most of those countries. Climatic change reduces rainfall and increases evapotranspiration,
highlighting the water deficit of rain-fed crops. The oscillation of land dedicated to cereal cultivation
between 1980 and 2012 shows the adverse influence of weather, with a surface reduction during
drought periods, which had become more and more frequent by the end of the 1980s.
Table 10 - National Rainfall Index (NRI) (mm/yr) 1963–2011.
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Source: data analysis – FAO 2013. AQUASTAT Database, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
and World Development Indicators 2014.
Table 11 - Land under cereal production in some SEMCs 1980–2012 (hectares)
Source: World Development Indicators, 2014.
Climatic change has a direct influence on cereal yields because the existing data show the
dominance of green water – that is, water derived from rainfall – in cereal production. Actually
there is a big cereal yeld gap between Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMC’s) and
European countries.
Table 12 - -Cereals yield in SEMCs and European Union (Hg/Ha) 1980-2013.
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Source: Elaboration based on data from FAOSTAT Database, 2014.
Bridging the yield gap in rainfed agriculture demands a strong investment in research and
innovation because is urgent to increase the adaptation of rainfed crops to climatic uncertainty,
to reintroduce cop varieties targeted to dry areas with high levels of resistance to insects and
diseases and high tolerance to drought and salinity. The transfer of European agronomic
knowledge can play an important role in fostering dry agriculture. In all this aspect PRIMA projects
will develop a large range of research and activities aimed at achieving the sustainability and
efficiency of agricultural production and a better management of water resources.
The self-sufficiency index for cereals clearly shows the deterioration of the food situation in SEMCs.
Those countries are the large net importers of cereals in the world it means they import around 56%
of the cereals calories that they consume. The dependency on cereal imports to satisfy domestic
demand measured by the ratios of imports to domestic consumption show a very high percentage
for grains reaching 87% in Lebanon, 51% in Morocco, 51% in Syria, 68% in Tunisia.
Table 13- Self-sufficiency index for cereals in SEMCs
Source: Elaboration based on data from USDA–FAS.
The low self-sufficiency rate for cereals creates a strong vulnerability of SEMCs to food price
fluctuation on the international markets. This vulnerability is also due to the high percentage of
population under or close to the poverty line and to the share of family expenditure devoted to food
(35.8% in Tunisia, 38.8% in Egypt, 43.9% in Algeria). According to the World Bank, a 30% increase
in food prices in Egypt could determine a 12% increase in poverty.
Food security challenges between the two shores of the Mediterranean basin are different. In
SEMCs investment in infrastructure and food systems are essential, since those countries often lack
of basic infrastructure, above all storage systems to face sudden and unpredictable loss of
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