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2005 and ended in November 2007, and the agreement came into force on 1 December 2008
(Ministry of Foreign
Affairs of Japan, 2013).
The Japan-ASEAN FTA is a comprehensive one, covering trade in goods, services,
investments, rules of origin, dispute settlement, sanitary and phyto-sanitary regulations,
technical barriers to trade, economic cooperation and, on Japan’s request, intellectual
property rights. For groups in Southeast Asia, it is seen as formalizing ASEAN’s role as a
regional manufacturing hub for Japanese corporations. It is now easier and cheaper for
Japanese firms to move components of automobiles and electronics from one ASEAN
country to another in a regional assembly line.
3. ASEAN +Korea
The ASEAN-Korea FTA took effect on June 1, 2007 (ARIC, 2012). Due to concerns about
agriculture, particularly the deal’s provisions on rice and livestock, Thailand negotiated
separate arrangements with the Korean government to join the pact in early 2009. In
November 2007, Korea and ASEAN signed the ASEAN-Korea FTA Trade in Services
Agreement, which came into force in May 2009. Furthermore, in June 2009, Korea and
ASEAN signed the ASEAN-Korea FTA Investment Agreement, which entered into force in
September 2009.
2.5. Opportunities and Challenges of ASEAN
1. ASEAN
There are both opportunities and challenges associated with the ambitious economic
integration initiative among ASEAN nations. The deepening economic integration in
ASEANthrough the implementation of AFTA in 1993 has generated trade flows among its
members (Ariyasajjakornet al., 2009). However, intra-ASEAN trade is very low relative to
that of other intra-regional trade blocs, namely, the European Union (EU) and the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (Ozeki, 2008, p. 28). This indicates that there is
still some room to boost intra-ASEAN trade, especially by strengthening the existing ASEAN
production network and incorporating CLMV into such production network. Nonetheless,
any policy to enhance intra-ASEAN trade should be carefully considered as it could generate
trade diversion rather than having a trade creation effect. An empirical study by Hapsari and
Mangunsung (2006) suggests that AFTA might be causing some trade diversion and shifting
trade from countries outside the trade bloc to possibly less efficient countries inside the trade
bloc.
To go beyond AFTA, ASEAN leaders agreed to formthe ASEAN Economic Community
(AEC) in 2015, which would improve the efficiency and competitiveness of ASEAN
countries since this arrangement provides the benefit of scale economies and dynamic
efficiency through the free movement of goods and services, investment, and skilled
labor.While the diversity in ASEAN provides a great opportunity to exploit much
comparative advantage, it is a great challenge as well. In particular, there is a large income
gapbetween ASEAN-6 and CLMV. To address this issue, Menon (2012) suggests that there
is a need to increase the pace and breadth of trade and investment policy reforms and to
address labor mobility including skilled and non-skilled labor. Without such reforms, it is
unlikely that CLMV would fully benefit from the formation of AEC.
The rising economic integration in East Asia also brings about opportunities as well as
challenges for ASEAN. Although ASEAN as a whole is large, it is still much smaller than the
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combined market size of the three East Asian countries, namely, China, Japan, and the
Republic of Korea. China andJapan are the world’s second and third largest economies,
respectively, and theRepublic of Korea ranks among the world’s fifteen largest economies
(Estrada et al., 2011, p. 3).Greater economic integration in East Asia would also include
India, New Zealand, and Australia. The formation of ASEAN+6 FTA could generate the
largest gains to East Asia among the plausible regional trade agreements (Kawai and
Wignaraja, 2008).The ASEAN framework offers the possibility of pooling scarce capacity
and resources in the region’s low-income economies, namely, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao
PDR, Philippines, and Vietnam. Nonetheless, the serious challenge facing individual ASEAN
countries is the competition between domestic products and imported products from China.
ASEAN will increasingly face intense competitive pressure from China, especially in labour-
intensive products.
2. Laos
Over the past 15 years, Laos seems to have gained from AFTA. First, as one of the least
developed countries in ASEAN, Laos has weak institutional capacity, a lack of human and
technical resources, and limited leverage to undertake FTA negotiations with the region’s
larger economies. The countryhas relied on ASEAN for concluding FTAs with the region’s
larger economies. Accessing the more than one billion people in China and increasing income
per capita through an ASEAN-China FTA, for instance, is a great market opportunity for
Laos. Second, reducing tariff rates to zero under AFTA can be an important step for Laos to
prepare itself for WTO accession. Finally, further deepening of economic integration in
ASEAN countries through AFTA and an AEC would enhance Laos’ trade competitiveness
and attract more FDI inflows. The rising exports and FDI inflows coupled with other market
reforms would constitute more rapid growth in Laos, and thereby reduce income differences
between Laos and ASEAN-6 (Menon, 2012).Although the benefits of growth driven by trade
and investment have gone disproportionately to the non-poor and inequality has increased,
they can be a significant tool to fight poverty in Laos (Fane, 2006).
However, there are many potential costs associated with joining AFTA and ASEAN-plus
FTAs. The nascent industries in Laos would be severely affected. An evaluation of the impact
of the ASEAN–China FTA on industries in Laos by Leebouapao et al. (2012) indicates that
price competitiveness in three industries—namely, wood processing, cement, and motorcycle
assembly—would fall substantially if tariffs are completely removed. Moreover, trade
liberalization in ASEAN will stimulate the output of each country within the region
according to their comparative advantage (Ariyasajjakorn et al., 2009). Given its small size
and poor physical and human capital, Laos would seem to get fewer benefits compared to
other member countries.
In conclusion, the relationship between AFTA and economic development in Laos remains
controversial among researchers. If trade liberalization and the
ensuing increase in foreign
trade do have merits in alleviating poverty as many contend, then what has happened in Laos
during the past 15 years deserves a careful examination in the context of AFTA.