18
However, there are still few studies on the impact of AFTA on individual economies of
ASEAN members
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. For instance, Athukorala and Menon (1997) examined the implications
of the formation of the AFTA for FDI flows and trade patterns in the region. Fukase and
Winters (2003) examined the three channels of AFTA affecting growth in new member
countries through: knowledge and productivity; the accumulation of physical and human
capital; and accelerated domestic reform. Heinrich and Konan (2001) analyzed the impact of
AFTA on foreign investment. Reduction of regional trade barriers could create new attractive
investment destinations in ASEAN. Khan and Tongzon (2005) estimated the revenues losses
of the CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam) from implementing
AFTA. It is evident that the CLMV countries will face significant losses from customs
revenues from AFTA. However, government revenues (tax and non-tax) are likely to rise in
CLMV countries. In addition, Ariyasajjakorn et al. (2009) analyzed the five simulation
scenarios of ASEAN and ASEAN PLUS on macroeconomic variables and poverty in
ASEAN and outside ASEAN countries. It shows that AFTA PLUS tendsto increase output of
capital-intensive goods more than labor-intensive goods. Therefore, less developed countries
like Laos tend to receive smaller benefits compared to other countries. AFTA PLUS tends to
widen the income gaps between high-income and low-income households across ASEAN
countries.
Despite these wider studies on economic tradeoffs, there are few on the relationship between
trade liberalization and poverty in Asia. Various studies have used a CGE model to examine
the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in developing countries. However, their results
regarding the impact of trade liberalization on poverty are mixed. The positive impacts of
trade liberalization on poverty could found in Cororaton et al.(2005) for the Philippines;
Ianchovichina and Martin (2001) for China; and Fujii and Roland-Holst (2007) for Vietnam;
Cororaton and Cockburn (2007) for the Philippines; and Hartono et al. (2007) for Indonesia.
On the other hand, some studies found negative impacts from trade liberalization on poverty.
For instance, Chaipan et al. (2006) in Thailand andCorong (2007)inthe Philippines found that
trade liberalization may even increase poverty. Chaipan, et al (2007) analyzed the impact of
economic partnership agreements on the Thai economy. The results showed that the FTA
would stimulate growth, investment and welfare for Thailand. However, the impact on
income distribution varied due mainly to patterns of production and trade in the partner
countries.Some researchers also argue that income distribution impacts from trade
liberalization may vary depending on various factors including characteristics of the
agreement and the size of the trading partner (Sudsawasd&Mongsawad, 2007; Park, 2007;
Plummer, 2007).
5.2 Studies Conducted in Laos
Determining the potential impacts of trade liberalization on poverty in the Lao PDR requires
both qualitative and quantitative analysis. A number of sources describe poverty statistics for
the country, which provide insights into the trends and characteristics of the Lao PDR’s poor.
Meanwhile, a limited number of studies have examined trade liberalization’s impact on the
economy, but most are outdated or limited in scope.
11
Adams and Park (1995) was pioneer to used multi-countries CGE model to analyzed the impact of AFTA on
ASEAN countries.
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Still, very few studies have been carried out on the impact of trade liberalization on the Lao
economy. Anderson (1998) performed an early descriptive analysis study which examined
the implications of WTO accession for agriculture and rural development. That study
predicted the net benefits of accession to be primarily positive, with economic growth
increased and continuing at a higher level than current. It predicted an expansion in
agriculture, agribusinesses and related service activities, which could expand income-earning
opportunities for rural communities already involved in agriculture. The study therefore
predicted that WTO accession would serve to address some central poverty alleviation issues
in the Lao PDR through the provision of more equitable income distribution across the
country. Finally, the study argued that government tax revenues could increase, particularly if
non-tariff trade barriers are tariff. Akkharath (2003) have also performed a descriptive study
of WTO accession. This study demonstrated a less overwhelmingly positive view of WTO
membership that included an examination both of potential challenges and also opportunities.
The Akkharath report argues that the Lao PDR would gain from greater access to global
markets as well as stronger trade rights under international law which guarantee equal
treatment with all other exporters. This, in turn, would raise trade and investment and their
related rights, as well as providing a less costly, often more efficient route to settling transit
disputes common for Laos considering it is a land-locked country.
There are also a number of studies which do use a CGE model to assess Lao economic
development. Many other studies conducted across developing country cases use CGE
models, however few of these use CGE model building as applied to the Lao PDR economy.
Fukase and Martin (1999) use a simple CGE model to assess the effects of joining the AFTA
on economic development, and determine that accession is indeed economically beneficial.
Fane (2006) discussed the government policies to ensure the benefits of trade liberalization
on income distribution. Menon (1999) examined the impact of the Laos’ membership of
AFTA
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.
Another study by Warr and Menon (2006) measured how improving rural infrastructure
would affect poverty in the Lao PDR. This study showed that considerable poverty reduction
would result by reducing the costs of transport, especially in rural areas, through road
improvement. Warr (2006) used a two-sector, multi-household CGE model to examine the
Nam Theun 2 (NT2) hydropower dam’s impact on poverty and economic growth on the Lao
PDR. The Warr (2006) model followed a 1-2-3 model structure which disaggregated at the
household level and included the production of two types of goods: exports and non-trade
goods. The results showed that although the project had significant effects on poverty, if poor
households do not share directly in the proceeds of the project, poverty is likely to rise.
Finally, Kyophilavong (2006), used a CGE model to analyze the potential impact of AFTA
on the Lao economy. The simulation’s results were significant benefits from accession to
AFTA for the Lao PDR, especially in non-agriculture sectors. Nevertheless, this model
involved only two sectors and did not analyze the impacts of AFTA on poverty and income
distribution.
In summary, there are few quantitative studies on trade and poverty in Laos, and none
examine the linked issues of environment, poverty and trade liberalization using CGE model
analysis. This is a major gap in the current policy and research fields for a country facing
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Menon (1999) found that (i) Laos is likely to gain low trade diversion but AFTA will be vehicle for Laos to
negotiate market access issues with Thailand. (ii) It seems that the impact of AFTA on government revenues is
likely to be low. (iii) AFTA is likely to increase flows of FDI to Laos because improvement of legal,
administrative and institutional framework from ASEAN standard.