26
Simulation scenario 3
Trade liberalization could promote Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (Brown and Stern, 2001;
NhuBinh and Haughton, 2002). By improving institutions and thusthe climate for doing
business,AFTA may result in Laos in increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).We assume
that the FDI inflow will increase by about 15%
21
.
Simulation scenario 4
Simulation scenario 4combines simulations 1 through 3 as an overall simulation of the
impacts of AFTA on the Lao economy.
21
We will shock qo("Capital", REG) is the variable for capital endowment and it is set as exogenous under the
standard GTAP model.
27
7.0. SIMULATION RESULTS
7. 1. Impact on macroeconomic variables
Laos will gain large benefits from AFTA. The overall impact of AFTA on Lao economy is
shown in simulation 4. AFTA has positive impact on increasing EV, real GDP, and terms of
trade. But it has negative impact on trade balance. AFTA increases equivalent variation (EV)
about 422 $US million. The increased EV comes mostly from the allocative efficiency
effect.
22
GDP quantity index will increase 9.5%. Terms of trade will increase 3%. However,
it has negative impact on trade balance, trade balance will have negative about 19% (table 7-
1). The effect of AFTA through tariff cut alone does not have much positive impact on Lao
economy in term of GDP and EV. However, the large impact of AFTA will come from
improvement trade facilitation (simulation 2) and increasing of FDI though improvement of
doing business climate (simulation 3). It shows that Laos will gain indirect impact from
AFTA though improvement of trade facilitation and promotion of FDI.
Table 7-1. Impact on macroeconomic variables
Source: authors’ GTAP model results.
Impacts on industry output
There are winners and losers that will result from AFTA. The top 10 sectors expected to
experience an increase in output are shown in table 7-2. AFTA will leadto an increase in
outputs from motor vehicles and parts, machinery and equipment, oil, metals, chemicals,
rubber, plastic products, electricity, ferrous metals, coal, water, and transport equipment.
22
There are basically four major sources for any welfare change: allocative efficiency effect, endowment effect,
technology effect and terms of trade effect (Hanslow, 2000; Adams, 2005). The fourth factor is determined by
the change in equity income from ownership of capital endowments which can be broken down into three parts:
a change in the domestic capital shock; change in household income earned on capital abroad; and change in the
domestic capital owned by foreigners.
The allocative efficiency effect is large for a country with high average initial tariffs. In contrast, it may become
negative when the extent of trade diversion is large in FTA with relatively low international trade. The terms-of-
trade effect is positive for any country with low average initial tariffs and negative for any country which has
high initial tariffs.
Variables
Unit
Simulation 1
Simulation 2
Simulation 3
Simulation 4
Equivalent variation $US dollar
13.61
219.42
189.51
422.53
GDP quantity index %
0.12
3.1
6.79
9.5
Trade balance
$US dollar
-32.41
-59.22
72.84
-18.79
Terms of trade
%
0.56
5.21
-2.34
3.43
28
Table 7-2. Top 10 sectors with increasing outputs
Source: authors’ GTAP model results.
However, output will also decline in some sectors due to AFTA (table 7-3). The top 10
sectors which will experience a decline in
outputs are sugar, leather products, textiles, crops,
dairy products, vegetable oils and fats, apparel, insurance, gas, and petroleum-coal products.
Table 7-3. Top 10 sectors with declining outputs
Source: authors’ GTAP model results.
Impact of trade balance by sectors
The AFTA is expected to lead to an increase in the Lao trade deficit in some sectors, whereas
it may improve the trade balance in other sectors. It may improve in the following sectors:
metals, oil, wood products, electricity, recreation and other services, and cereal/grains.
However, there are a large number of sectors which will experience trade deficits. The top 10
sectors expected to decline from AFTA are food products, machinery and equipment,
chemicals, rubber, plastic products, petroleum, coal products, apparel, mineral products,
transport, crops, beverages and tobacco products, and motor vehicles and parts. Therefore, it
is important for policy makers to carefully consider the impacts of AFTA on food security
(table 7-4; 7-5).
No.
Code
Sector
Change (%)
1
mvh
Motor vehicles and parts
81.47
2
ome
Machinery and equipment
70.3
3
oil
Oil
56.63
4
nfm
Metals
48.91
5
crp
products
35.79
6
ely
Electricity
32.59
7
i_s
Ferrous metals
26.57
8
coa
Coal
21.01
9
wtr
Water
20.22
10
otn
Transport equipment
18.55
No.
Code
Sector
Change (%)
1
sgr
Sugar
-55.6
2
lea
Leather products
-39.96
3
tex
Textiles
-33.41
4
ocr
Crops
-25.64
5
mil
Dairy products
-20.69
6
vol
Vegetable
oils and fats
-19.21
7
wap
Wearing apparel
-15.61
8
isr
Insurance
-12.2
9
gas
Gas
-4.44
10
p_c
Petroleum, coal products
-4.07