Genomic DNA was extracted using acetate amonum method. The quality and quantity of DNA was
assessed using 1% Agarose gel electrophoresis and Polymeras Chain Reaction (PCR)
was conducted on
the target DNA using 10 paired microsatellite primer. PCR prouduct were electrophoresed on
polyacrylamide gels 6% that was stained using sliver nitrate.
Electrophoretic patterns and bands were analyzed with Bio Capt software. Allele count and frequency,
genetic diversity, expected heterozygosity and observed heterozygosity allele number and the effective
allele number, genetic similarity and genetic distance, FST and RST were calculated. It is evident from
refrence
Coad, B. W. (1998). Systematic biodiversity in the freshwater fishes of Iran.
Italian Journal of Zoology,
65(S1), 101-108.
Coad, B. W. (2016). Review of the Lampreys of Iran (Family Petromyzontidae).
International Journal of
Aquatic Biology, 4(4), 256.
Holcik, J. (1986). The freshwater fishes of Europe. Volume 1, Part 1: Petromyzontiformes.
Imanpoor, M. R., & Abdollahi, M. (2011). Serum biochemical parameters of Caspian lamprey,
Caspiomyzon wagneri during final spawning migration.
World Applied Sciences Journal, 12(5),
600-606.
Kiabi, B. H., Abdoli, A., & Naderi, M. (1999). Status of the fish fauna in the South Caspian Basin of Iran.
Zoology in the Middle East, 18(1), 57-65.
Larsen, L. O. (1980). Physiology of adult lampreys, with special regard to natural starvation,
reproduction, and death after spawning.
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,
37(11), 1762-1779.
Nazari, H., & Abdoli, A. (2010). Some reproductive characteristics of endangered Caspian lamprey
(Caspiomyzon wagneri Kessler, 1870) in the Shirud River southern Caspian Sea, Iran.
Environmental biology of fishes, 88(1), 87-96.
Renaud, C. (1997). Conservation status of northern hemisphere lampreys (Petromyzontidae).
Journal of
applied ichthyology, 13(3), 143-148.
23
Forecasting Caspian Sea level for 10 years' time using periodicity method
S.K.Monakhov
"Research Center of Southern Seas Ecology" Ltd.
Key words: Caspian Sea, level
fluctuations, forecast, periodicity method
Introduction
The problem of very long-term (exceeding 1 year) Caspian Sea level forecast (CSL) has not been
solved despite continuous attention towards this issue [1]. One of the methods used for very
long-term forecasting of the Caspian Sea level is the periodicity method based on the
assumption that the CSL changes can be presented as overlaid cyclic fluctuations of different
amplitude and time. i.e., the harmonics [2]. The method was first suggested by B.Shlyamin who
predicted the sea level rise in the period from 1975 to 2032 in 1962 using the combination of 4
harmonics with the periods of 11, 35, 100 and 500 years with the amplitude ratio of 1:2:4:7 [4].
However CSL forecasts with such advance time are more of scientific than of practical interest.
From the practical
viewpoint, the forecasts not exceeding 10 years' time are more significant.
The use of the periodicity method for making such forecasts is hampered because of the
"noise" in the high-frequency spectral range of the CSL fluctuations. The objective of the paper
is to compare the CSL forecast made in 2015 with the actual data.
Materials
The forecast was prepared on the basis of long-term observations data of the sea level
collected at the marine hydrological posts and contained in the General Catalogue of the
Caspian Sea level created by CASPCOM and displayed on its website
http://www.caspcom.com/
. The study was based on the long-term series of sea level
data in
January, February (etc. for every month) and annual data (mean, maximum and minimum
values). The harmonics were identified on the basis of periodograms plotted by means of
MEZOZAVR software.
Results
At the moment, numerous harmonics in the long-term fluctuations of the Caspian Sea level
have been determined. Selecting the harmonics which can be used for making a forecast, we
based on the assumption that the cyclic fluctuations common for all the
above mentioned time
series of the sea level, are of high prognostic value. The prognostic harmonics must:
•
have a big contribution to the sea level variability within a time period equal to the
forecast lead-time;
•
have a significant occurrence in space (at different posts) and time (in different months
of the year);
•
have coinciding frequencies in the temporal series of the mean, minimal and maximal
sea level;
The data analysis shows that if the forecast lead time does not exceed 20-25 years, these
requirements are met only by the harmonics with the period of 12-13 and 17-19 years.
By means of different combinations of these harmonics we have received 6 prognostic models.
By applying them to different posts (Makhachkala, Baku, Krasnovodsk and Aktau) we
received
the ensemble of 24 prognostic models. Alongside with this, we have identified the only one
(solo) harmonic which best reproduces the actual changes of the sea level in 1996 - 2015. To
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draw up the Caspian Sea level forecast we have used both solo and ensemble models (mean
value in the ensemble)
The results of the forecast employing 6 basic ensemble models (mean value for 4 posts)
presented in Fig. 1 show that the sea level curves calculated by different models are in close fit
to 2025, after that they diverge. Therefore the numerical forecast presented in Table 1 is
restricted by this date.
Fig. 1. Actual (black bold line) and calculated by means of a models ensemble (thin lines) sea
level in 2011 - 2035. The bar chart shows the mean level for the ensemble reduced to the
reference point. The reference point for 2011 - 2015 is the actual sea level in 2011, the
reference point for 2016 - 2035 is the actual level in 2015.
Forecasting
method
Years
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Solo
-12
30
10
24
1
-5
-1
-15
-14
-2
Ensemble
1
17
7
4
5
-6
-3
-3
-7
-1
Table 1 The forecast of the annual increment of the Caspian Sea level for 2016 - 2025 (cm)
Discussion
According to the sea level forecast made in 2015, the sea level will be rising from 2016 to 2020
and slowly falling in the following 5 years. The solo and
the ensemble forecasts were
inconsistent by their signs in 2016; on three occasions they significantly differed from each
other by the increment value (more than 10 cm); in other cases they were consistent. In 2016
the sea level actually stabilized at the mark close to zero (minus 28.0 m BS), to be more specific,
it fell just by 1 cm, which is in compliance with the ensemble forecast (2 cm discrepancy).
According to the observations data at Makhachkala marine hydrological post, the sea level in
2017 rose by 6 cm against its elevation in 2016. The increment value of the average sea level
will be specified in
the oral presentation, but it is obvious that it will be significantly lower than
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