Relationships between the wind regimes in the south-west and Krasnovodsk-Cheleken water area
Relationships between the winds regimes in the study area were conducted by statistical analysis of 3 compiled conventional
analog wind speeds ranges.
It has been revealed from calculation that there is a good correlation relation between wind velocities in the 1
st
station and the
wind velocities in the 3
rd
station (
ϕ
,
v
r
=0,7). This is a sign that winds in water area are very close to one another.
Another weak link
(
ϕ
,
v
r
=0, 54) was found between wind directions of the 2
nd
and 3
rd
stations.
In general, there is a weak correlation between the winds in the southern part of the Caspian Sea and even the existing opposite
connection is the indicator of the volatility of the wind direction in water area. In other cases, it has been derived from
calculation
where there is a very weak positive relationship between direction and speed. All these relationships show that the wind regimes in
the water area are different.
It should be noted that the pair correlation coefficients were also calculated between the velocity and directions of strong winds
(March 19-23, 1997), which lasted for a short period of time (1-3days).
The calculations show that there is a weak relationship between the speed and direction of the winds observed at the stations.
There was a weak relationship between wind direction in the 1
st
and 2
nd
stations, and a weak relation between their speeds.
There was a very good feedback between wind speeds at 1
st
and 3
rd
stations. At the same time, there was a good correlation
between the wind direction in the 2
nd
and 3
rd
stations.
According to the indications of the speed and direction of winds in the research water area, regardless of the strong winds
direction, both the direction and speed changes in the Southern Caspian water area are observed, and even reverse winds are
observed [1,2].
Synchronous analysis of wind regimes in south-west and Krasnovodsk-Cheleken water area
Synchronous analysis of strong winds observed in south-west and Krasnovodsk- Cheleken water area has been carried out on
numerous strong winds.
It can be seen from the statistical analysis that each watercourse in the Caspian Sea has a unique wind regime.
The following results were obtained from the study:
1.
In the repetition of the strong winds from the northern part of the Southern Caspian (from the Sand island),
there is a gradual decline from north to south, and from the west and east to the central part of the sea.
2.
In the research water area, the wind velocity weakens along the western coast (southward) and changes its
direction mainly to the east. As these winds move towards the
center of the South Caspian, their orientation does not change, and
their speeds are weak. However, in most cases, the speed of the wind that moves toward the center of the South Caspian is higher
than the wind speed on the west coast.
References
1. Allahverdiyev Z.S. Investigation of strong hurricanes in the South Caspian. Scientific report. Center of Innovation of ANAS. Order
num. № 0107 Az 00145, inven. № 0208, Az 1299, Baku. 2009, 87.
2. Allahverdiyev Z.S. Standard of wind modes in the western part of the South Caspian. Hydrometeorology and Ecology. Quarterly
scientific and technical journal, ed.2, 2014. Kazgidromet, Almati.
3.Mammadov R. M. Hydrometeorological atlas of the Caspian Sea. Baku, “Nafta-Press”, 2014,180.
4. Atlas of motion and wind of the middle and south Caspian Sea, Publ. h.. “Hydrometeorology”, 1968, 92.
5. Monographic directory,Vol VI. Caspian Sea (Edited by F.S. Terziyeva, A.N. Kosareva, A.A. Kerimova). Sankt-Peterburg.
Gidrometeoizdat, 1992, 360.
6. Madat-zade A.A. Synoptico-climatic zoning of the Caspian Sea]Works. Institute of Geography of Azerb.SSR, V. IV, Baku 1954, 11-20.
7. Rojdestvenskiy A.V, Chebotarev A.I.
Statisticheskiye metodi v gidrologii. [Statistical methods in hydrology]. L: Publ. house Gidrometeoizdat,
1974-416.
65
Assessment of the effects of climate change on air temperature over the
Caspian Sea
Shirin Farkhani
1*
, Nasser Hadjizadeh Zaker
2
1. Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, s_farkhani @ut.ac.ir
2. Associate professor, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, nhzaker
@ut.ac.ir
Keywords: Climate Change, CORDEX, ECMWF, Caspian Sea, Air temperature
Introduction
Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change
lasts for an extended period of time. Climate change is
caused by factors such
as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic
eruptions. Certain human activities have been identified as primary causes of ongoing climate
change. Climate change can make changes in air temperature characteristic, ocean circulation,
sea ice area, species extinction and sea level. (National Research Council, 2010)
General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the most advanced tools currently available for
simulating the response of the global climate system
to increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations. There is a wide range of statistical and dynamical downscaling and bias-
correction methods available to generate local climate projections. (Dahm et al., 2016)
The effect of climate change on air temperature has been assessed in several regions such as
Central Asia (Ozturk et al., 2012), South Africa (Zhao et al., 2005) and seas like Baltic Sea (Jouni,
2017).
Currently, the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) program,
initiated by the World
Climate Research Program, provides an opportunity for generating high-
resolution regional climate projections, which can be used for assessment of the future
impacts of climate change at regional scales using both statistical and dynamical techniques.
(Giorgi et al., 2009)
This paper presents the assessment of impacts of climate change
on air temperature over the
Caspian Sea, by using CORDEX project data.
Materials and methods
The Caspian Sea (36° to 47° N and 46° to 54° E) is a totally enclosed, landlocked
body of water
on the Euro-Asian continent. (Gunduz and Özsoy, 2014)
66