Fig. 1. Study Area
Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide prediction information on scales of around 1000 by 1000km
covering what could be a vastly differing landscape (from very mountainous to flat coastal plains for
example). Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD), applied over a
limited area and driven by GCMs can provide information on much smaller scales supporting more
detailed impact and adaptation assessment and planning. The
impacts of a changing climate, and the
adaptation strategies require to deal with them on regional and national scales. This is where Regional
Climate Downscaling (RCD) has an important role to play by providing projections with much greater
detail and more accurate representation of localized extreme events. The Coordinated Regional Climate
Downscaling Experiment (
CORDEX) has served as a catalyst to achieve this goal.
CORDEX wind data
developed by
Max Planck Institute for the new Earth system model (MPI-ESM) based on context of the
CMIP5 process (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5) was used to produce
the data for the
historical period from 1976 to 2005 and also for the future (from 2071 to 2100) in two Representative
Concentration Pathways (
RCPs), Containing
RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5, based on the Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The spatial and temporal resolutions
were about 0.5 degree in latitude and longitude and daily average, respectively (https://esgf-
index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/cordex-ceda/).
Results
Variations of the daily wind speed was evaluated in the southern part of the Caspian Sea using 10m
wind speed for the 30-year period 2071–2100. The evaluation was done with respect to the reference
period 1976–2005 based on
RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 scenarios obtained from
CORDEX wind field. For this
purpose, daily wind speed of
CORDEX data were obtained and the variation was
assessed using
statistical analysis. This comparison was carried out in three points in the Caspian Sea (Fig. 1). These
points were selected based on the spatial resolution of the models. The standard deviation, averages,
maximums and minimums of wind speed were obtained and shown in table 1.
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part of the Caspian Sea. According to results (Tab. 1), the future maximum
and averaged wind speed will
be decreased at about 2.5% base on
RCP4.5 and about 7.5% base on
RCP8.5 at the end of the century
while minimum wind speed will increase according to both future scenarios. In general, in comparison to
the 1976-2005 period, in the 2071-2100 period there is an insignificant change in
the average wind
speed in all three points, however even small changes in average wind speeds can lead to large
variations in the wave characteristics and sedimentation in the area.
Directional analysis using wind roses (Fig. 2) indicated a similar dominant direction
for both time
intervals of Historical (1976-2005) and future (2071-2100) base on both
RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5. Therefore,
wave direction remains mostly unchanged during 21
st
century due to climate change.
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https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/cordex-ceda/
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