Cjss second Issue: cjss second Issue qxd

External Threats and Authoritarian Backlashes: 
A Retrospective on Internal Conflicts in Georgian
Society After the August War
Jason E. Strakes 
Claremont Graduate University
n the years since the November 2003 Rose Revolution, popularly elected
leaders in the Republic of Georgia have responded to organized protests
with repressive tactics. These reactions suggest that former challengers to
authoritarian elites may utilize similar methods of retaining power dur-
ing crisis periods. Yet, the alleged involvement of agencies of the Russian
Federation in fomenting domestic instability has also figured prominently
in the policies of the Saakashvilli government. These conditions culmi-
nated disastrously in the Russian invasion of August 2008. The present
study suggests a theoretical model for analyzing international influences
on state-society relations in Georgia since 2003. The model provides a tool
for examining the role of external threats in the relationship between the
activities and strategies of opposition groups and the national security
perceptions and practices of Georgian political elites.
qarTul sazogadoebaSi arsebuli Sida konfliqtebis  
retrospeqtiva agvistos omis Semdeg
jeison straiqsi
klaremontis universiteti
003 wlis, vardebis revoluciis Semdeg arCeulma mTavrobam orga-
nizebul saprotesto gamosvlebs represiuli taqtikiT upasuxa. ms-
gavsi reaqcia zrdis albaTobas, rom SesaZlebelia avtoritaruli
elitis yofilma warmomadgenlebma gamoiyenon msgavsi meTodi krizi-
sis ganmavlobaSi TavianTi Zalauflebis SesanarCuneblad. ruseTis
federaciis CarTuloba adgilobrivi arastabilurobis gamomwvevis
mizniT TvalnaTliv aisaxa saakaSvilis mTavrobis mier gatarebul
politikaSi. am mdgomareobam kulminacias miaRwia 2008 wlis agvis-
toSi, rodesac ruseTma qveyanaSi SemoWra ganaxorciela. naSromi
gTavazobT 2003 wlidan, saxelmwifo-sazogadoebrivi urTierTobebis
mimarTulebiT saerTaSoriso gavlenis analizis Teoriul models. is
warmoadgens gare safrTxeebis mniSvnelobis ganmsazRvrel saSuale-
bas, opoziciuri jgufebis, erovnuli usafrTxioebis da qarTuli
politikuri elitis qmedebebsa da strategiebTan mimarTebaSi. 
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Caucasus Journal of Social Sciences

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In the years since the November 2003 Rose Revolution (Vardebis Rev-
olucia), the popularly elected leadership of the Republic of Georgia has re-
sponded to organized political protests with tactics such as crackdowns by
security services and militia, control of the media, mobilization of pro-regime
counter-demonstrators and provocateurs, and the imposition of emergency
laws. On one hand, these reactions suggest that once in office, former chal-
lengers to authoritarian elites may utilize similar methods of retaining power
during crisis periods as their predecessors. Yet, allegations of involvement by
agencies of the Russian Federation in fomenting domestic instability have
also figured prominently in both the public discourse and actions taken by
the Saakashvilli/United National Movement (Ertiani Natsionaluri Modzraoba)
government. This is represented by the recurrent ploy of presenting inter-
cepted telephone communications and video recordings as evidence of pur-
ported collusion between opposition and foreign elements. Significant
examples of such instances are the suppression of the Ortachala Prison riot,
the Kodori Gorge operation and related imprisonment of Forward Georgia!
founder Irakli Batiashvili, the arrest of leaders of Igor Giorgadze’s
Samartlianoba (Justice) Party in an alleged coup attempt, and detainment of
four Russian military officers and seven alleged Georgian accomplices in
2006, and the targeting and physical assault of opposition activists and raid
and seizure of the Imedi and Caucasia television facilities by the Interior Min-
istry and police forces in 2007.
However, establishment views of foreign sponsorship of popular un-
rest have longstanding precedents in post-Soviet Georgia. For instance: during
the historic student protests against the policies of former president Eduard
Shevardnadze in November 2001, news media widely characterized the
events as being driven by “specific political forces”, including alleged Russian
influence (Manning, 2007. p. 194). Western observers have also frequently
attributed these notions to the immediate challenges to Georgian sovereignty
posed by the Russian-sponsored separatist states of Abkhazia and South Os-
setia, which have fostered the perception of a continual threat to national se-
curity from external sources (Cornell et al, 2005. p. 12; Cornell et al, 2007.
pp.  4, 18). These conditions culminated disastrously in Russia’s retaliation to
the Georgian Armed Forces intervention in Tskhinvali in August 2008, which
may have altered the present government’s perspective regarding the use of
such preemptive responses. However symbolic, the recent expansion of ses-
sions of the National Security Council to include dialogues with opposition
leaders on the first anniversary of the invasion might exemplify this shift in
orientation (Kvelashvili, 2009; Rustavi 2, 2009). 
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Caucasus Journal of Social Sciences

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The present study therefore proposes a theoretical model of political
conflict in order to scientifically examine the significance of external threats
as an intervening variable in the relationship between the characteristics of
Georgian opposition groups, and the public security policies exercised by
Georgian elites. The model suggests a linkage between the orientations of do-
mestic political actors, the influences generated by geopolitical forces, and
the responses of an incumbent government to threats to its ability to remain
in office caused by internal unrest. This modifies an approach developed in an
earlier study of protest and policing in post-Soviet “color revolution” states to
examine the state-society and international dynamics that have developed in
Georgia between the Rose Revolution and the August War (Strakes, 2008).
The following sections will 1), review previous studies that provide support-
ing logic and evidence for the theory, 2), present the main components of the
model, and 3), discuss the empirical measures and data necessary for analysis
of these issues. 
Theoretical Framework
The conceptual foundations for investigating the interactive relation-
ships described above draw from several research agendas in political science
and international studies, including the literature on domestic political con-
flict, the impact of interstate relations on internal political processes, and na-
tional security in post-Soviet Georgia. The first segment of this framework is
based upon recent empirical findings that among developing nations, semi-
democracies (or governments in the process of transition between regime
types) are more likely to engage in repression than either fully consolidated
democracies or authoritarian states (Fein, 1995; Regan and Henderson,
2002). This maintains that the extent of threats to incumbent leaders is
equated with the type and scale of demands, strategies and tactics of opposi-
tion groups, and in turn the level of repressive force applied in response
(Moore, 2000). The likelihood of the use of coercion during incomplete tran-
sitions to democracy is therefore greater because the opening of the political
space increases opportunities to challenge the present regime, while at the
same time the fragility of existing institutions limits the capacity to channel
discontent, leaving it with a limited range of options to defend itself from re-
moval.  In addition, an action-reaction process may occur in which the sup-
pression of nonviolent protests by the incumbent regime may intensify
popular opposition and internal uprisings (Francisco, 1995).
Secondly, various studies by American political scientists have presented
evidence of a significant association between the magnitude of external mil-
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