Because immigration policy is not considered to increase or allow illegal immigrants, this study
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employ the annual refugee admission ceiling and, alternatively, a year dummy for major
immigration reform, as well as the number of lawful permanent residents per capita.
First, while legal immigrants and non-immigrants must be allowed entry under immigration
laws, the number of immigrants measured cannot adequately capture changes in immigration
policy because the real number of immigrants cannot exactly reflect the migration flows that the
targeted policies are intended to produce. The number of immigrants in 1930 (14,204,100)
under the quota system was much higher than the number of immigrants in 1970 (9,619,300),
when the quota system was no longer in force. Instead of using the number of immigrants,
therefore, I choose the annual refugee admission ceiling. Although refugees are admitted on
humanitarian grounds, refugee policy is usually considered a general immigration policy that
reflects national interests (Whelan, 1983). Further, presidents have exercised substantial
decision authority over the number of refugees to be admitted each year since Congress passed
the Refugee Act in 1980 (Rodriguez, 2010). This suggests that analyzing the ceiling is a more
straightforward way of determining the degree of restrictiveness of immigration policy at the
national level because the changing quota of refugees admitted to the U.S. mirrors the overall
pattern of U.S. immigration policy. To measure the effect of policy changes on migration flows,
many studies have used the number of asylum applications and asylum laws (e.g., Hatton, 2004;
Thielemann, 2004).
It could be argued, however, that foreign firms are likely to be attracted to regions with
high-skilled workers because most such firms that are growing are in high-skill and knowledge-
based industries, and thus the number of refugees admitted may not be an appropriate measure
for capturing the effects of immigration policy on FDI. Although more and more foreign
investors have allocated funding to skill-intensive firms in the U.S., the manufacturing sector
has seen the most FDI in the U.S. over the past 20 years (Jackson, 2017). It is also important to
note that the measure for FDI used in this research is the aggregate amount of FDI inflow to the
U.S., regardless of industry. In the link between immigration policy and FDI, one must consider
the potential benefits of a large immigrant population, including both skilled and unskilled
immigrants, who would be a critical source of labor and consumption.
Indeed, many studies of FDI suggest that foreign firms are more likely to invest in countries
that have a relatively high share of unskilled labor due to lower wages (e.g., Carr et al., 2001;
Blonigen and Piger, 2014). Some studies also find that, on average, FDI does not relate to the
high-skilled sectors and that even major firms tend to strategically avoid localities with highly
skilled workers due to concerns over knowledge leakage (Chung and Alcacer, 2002; Shaver and
Flyer, 2000). Also, we wouldn’t be able to assert that refugees are a potential source of
increasing low-skilled workforces; many of them are high-skilled refugees who can apply their
skills productively. Admitted refugees constitute an investment in human capital and their
presence has a positive impact, stabilizing existing labor markets in the host country. It is
argued that increasing refugee acceptance could reallocate native workers to more productive
and demanding sectors, allowing the refugees to take over the low-skilled tasks (Andersson et
al., 2019; Ottaviano and Peri, 2012). Thus, this study uses the annual refugee admission ceiling
as a percentage of a total population in the U.S. as a primary measure for immigration policy. I
expect that larger proportional refugee ceiling is associated with FDI inflows as a percentage of
GDP. The data are drawn from Migration Policy Institute.
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To ensure that the results found for the figures for the annual refugee ceiling are not an
artifact of data selection, I provide a year dummy for major immigration reform. Each major
immigration law contains substantial information on the government’s attitude toward
immigration. Following suggestions found in existing immigration studies, therefore, I use a
binary variable for immigration policy to indicate years in which a government attempts to
restrict the number of immigrants (e.g., Karemera et al., 2000; Hatton, 2004). A dummy
variable is used to identify the effects of the changes in U.S. immigration policy of 1976, 1980,
1986, 1994, 1996, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2006. These indicate the time points when the
U.S. government adopted major immigration reform. A summary of each major immigration
law is provided in Appendix 1.
In addition to the immigration law variable as an alternative measure of immigration policy,
this study also adopts a variable that measures the potential effects of high-skilled immigrants
on FDI. Skilled workers could be measured by either the number of H-1B visas issued or the
lawful permanent resident population because immigrants in this category are admitted based on
quality and merit. This is measured by the number of lawful permanent residents per capita
because reliable data for H-1B visas are only available from 2004, after which point there have
been no substantial changes to the H-1B quotas.
Last, the models include unit labor costs as the mediating variable that explains the indirect
effects of immigration policies. I expect that a change in labor costs would negatively affect FDI
inflows into the U.S. As discussed earlier, large increases in labor costs will discourage
potential firms from making an investment. Thus, I expect that changes in labor cost are
negatively associated with FDI inflows. I use labor costs with the index of the unit labor cost of
manufacturing in the U.S., which is measured as the cost of labor input required to produce one
unit of output. Based on the data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, these data include output,
total labor hours, and total compensation. I expect that the year dummy variable indicating
immigration restriction is negatively correlated with FDI inflows.
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