15
“Orange Revolution” in Ukraine: Transitological Interpretation
actions include Meiji revolution in 1886 in Japan, K. Atatjurk’s coming to power in 1923
in Turkey and revolution in 1952 in Egypt carried out by A. Nasser.
Some states which can be named neopatrimonial function on the basis of patronage-
clientele relations. In such states the head of executive power can separate bureaucrats
and militarians, weaken them both and encourage corruption to put civil servants into
dependence on their own will. Such states according to T. Scocpol, deeply feel external
economic and military influence. Periods of economic stability
enable to construct a net-
work of patronage relations; however, the times of economic recession can deprive the
head of executive power of opportunities to control the environment. If during the given
period there is even some insignificant social resistance and corruption among militarians
and state employees then it can limit the ability of state authorities to enforce order. The
power can then be taken by the counterelite which purpose is to overthrow the previous
elite, instead of changing the system of government. T. Scocpol believes that such events
belong to revolutions of a special type like revolutions in Mexico, Cuba and Nicaragua.
At the same time it shall be underlined that in literature such events can be named coups
d’état.
Anyhow, the paralysis of the state is only one component of a revolution. A full-scale
revolution occurs only when the displeasure of elites is amplified by mass movements of
city workers and peasants.
Events of November-December 2004 in Ukraine had some attributes of revolutionism
(a political crisis which lasted from the announcement of the results of the second round
of elections before the decision-making by the Supreme court about the recognition of
the results of this round void and the setting of repeated voting, political mobilization of
a significant amount of citizens, confrontation between the power and the opposition,
political polarization in society). However, it does not give any reasons to name these
events revolution because:
1. Despite of the political crisis in December 2004 and the governmental crisis in Sep-
tember 2005, there was no collapse in the functioning of the key institutions responsible
for the support of autonomous safety in the state. I understand autonomous safety as an
ability of the state to solve its own problems peacefully, without any external or military
presence.
Institutions responsible for the maintenance of autonomous safety include the fol-
lowing:
A) Effective police/militia and system
of corrective institutions;
B) Effective bureaucratic
machinery or public service;
C)
Independent judicial system;
D) Professional armed forces staying under civil control [29].
The above specified institutions have never been and will not be any time soon com-
pletely independent in Ukraine that is independent of political parties, clans, and also of
political elites. However, they were never under complete control of the given groups.