Ligjërata master 2012-2013 syllabusi 2012-2013
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+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Financial crisis: Punishment Europe Editorial guardian.co.uk, Monday 7 November 2011 The era in which Europe was a synonym for prosperity is coming to an end. Governments who could once tell their electorates that the European Union – although it might be problematic in other ways – brought wealth and jobs, are now having to tell them the opposite. It has become increasingly difficult for them to blame the continent's difficulties on others or to pretend that it will soon emerge from its troubles. Every country has a station on this cross. The Greeks, torn (shqyhen) between self-pity (keqardhje ndaj vetvetes) and the awareness that they have tipped the whole union into crisis, now face the grim prospect of forming an administration that will have no story to tell its citizens except that they must suffer for past sins (mekate). The Italians are miserably contemplating the price of their years of dalliance (defrim) with the irresponsible and opportunistic Silvio Berlusconi, a long-running show on which the curtain is likely to crash down any time now. The French, who had aspired to lead in this crisis, yesterday brought in an austerity (ashper) plan which, although it has already been criticised for lack of substance, was marked by a statement by the prime minister, Francois Fillon, that bankruptcy was "no longer an abstract". The real problem is not so much that Europe is bust (deshtim), but rather that Europe's political structures have not proved able to co-ordinate the deployment of the financial power of the continent's north on behalf of its south. With Mr Berlusconi still boasting of Italy's bustling restaurants, it is understandable enough if the hard-working citizens of Bremen and Bonn are reluctant (ngurues) to write him a blank cheque. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Ndërkombëtarizimi dhe globalizimi i tregjeve financiare JEFFREY D. SACHS, Profesor i ekonomisë në Columbia University “Kriza ekonomike globale do të jetë me ne për një gjeneratë të tërë, e jo vetëm për një apo dy vjet, pasi që ajo paraqet tranzicion drejt qëndrueshmërisë. Pamjaftueshmëria e burmimeve dhe dëmet e shkaktuara si pasojë e ndryshimeve klimatike… i ka kontribuar destabilizimit të ekonomisë botërore. Çmimet e ngritura të ushqimit dhe burimeve energjetike, …, kanë pasur një rol të madh në destabilizimin e tregjeve financiare dhe madje edhe gjendjes politike. Dalja nga kriza globale: ndërtimi i infrastrukturës që u përgjigjet nevojave të shekullit XXI. Ka ardhur koha që bota t’i bashkojë përpjekjet për jetësimin e këtyre projekteve. Por një gjë e tillë nuk është e lehtë të bëhet. Pse? Sepse, pjesa më e madhe e investimeve në infrastrukturë kërkojnë udhëheqës të sektorit publik që janë të gatshëm të lidhin partneritete me sektorin privat. Zakonisht sektori publik duhet të hyjë në marrëveshje kontraktuare me firmat private, …, mirëpo duhet të ketë qasje të drejtë në rregullimin e pozitës si monopol ose me koncesion. Qeverive në përgjithësi u mungon kapaciteti i nevojshëm teknik për projektet e tilla, duke i hapur kështu rrugë favorizimit dhe korrupsionit gjatë dhënies së kontratave të mëdha. Akuzat e tilla rëndojnë mbi qeveritë edhe kur nuk janë të vërteta, ndonëse një gjë e tillë është shumë e rrallë. Prandaj, qeveritë duhet t’i forcojnë ministritë e tyre të infrastrukturës (përfshirë: teknologjitë e burimeve energjetike, rrugëve, ujit dhe sistemit sanitar), si dhe bankat e tyre për zhvillim nacional, në mënyrë që të përgatisin projekte afatgjata infrastrukturore. Aftësia për ta përballuar krizën në mënyrë konstruktive përmes partneriteteve të sektorit publik-privat do ta përcaktojë suksesin e shteteve dhe rajoneve. Është interesante se edhe SHBA-ja do ta krijojë Bankën Amerikane për Infrastrukturë për të parën herë. Takimi i G205 në Londër, më 2 prill, na jep shpresë për një përpjekje të vërtetë globale për riparimin e ekonomisë botërore. Nëse nuk i tejkalojmë sfidat, kriza do ta rrezikojë botën për shumë vite të ardhshme (J. Sachs). ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Financial innovation Inovacionet financiare James C. Van Horne Professor Van Horne has focused his research on issues in corporate finance, valuation, and on the term structure of interest rates. His some 60 articles in finance, economic, and management journals often involve empirical inquiry. He is the author of five books, three of which - Financial Management and Policy, 12th edition; Financial Market Rates and Flows, 6th edition; and Fundamentals of Financial Management, 12th edition, (coauthor) - have been widely used as texts in the U.S.A. and abroad. Sipas autorit James Van Horne (1985), inovacionet financiare definohen si produkte dhe procese të reja, të cilat, në sensin operacioanl, tregjet financiare i bëjnë më efiçiente dhe më komplete. Hence6, we define a financial innovation as something new that reduces costs, reduces risks, or provides an improved product/service/instrument that better satisfies financial system participants‘ demands. Financial innovations can be grouped as:
Recent service innovations primarily relate to enhanced account access and new methods of payment – each of which better meets consumer demands for convenience and ease.
… Inovacionet financiare Roy E. Bailey, The Economics Of Financial Markets, Cambridge University Press, 2005 Derivatives markets. Corresponding to most of the above categories are derivative, or synthetic, securities. They are ‘derivative’ in the sense that their payoffs are defined in terms of the payoffs on an underlying asset or assets. The underlying asset could itself be a derivative, so that a whole hierarchy of such instruments emerges. Almost all derivatives are variants of two generic contracts [Tregjet derivative, ose tregjet e letrave me vlerë sintetike. Ata janë "të derivuara" në kuptimin që fitimet (payoffs) e tyre janë të përcaktuara në terme të fitimeve nga një aktiv ose asete te caktuara (kryesore). Aseti themelor mund të jetë vetë një derivat, prandaj për këtë ka lindur një hierarki e tërë e instrumenteve të tilla. Pothuajse të gjitha derivatet janë variante të dy kontratave gjenerike]
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/sri-two-styles.asp Eric Petroff, “Change The World One Investment At A Time” Eric Petroff is the director of research of Wurts & Associates, an institutional consulting firm advising nearly $40 billion in client assets. Le të themi se ju doni të ndryshoni botën, por ju nuk keni shumë besim në mitingje të protestës apo në politikanë. Çfarë mund të bëjë një person normal, me një punë me kohë të plotë, që botën tonë ta bëjë një vend më të mirë? Investimi i përgjegjshëm shoqëror – IPSH (Socially Responsible Investing - SRI), pikërisht kjo mund të jetë përgjigjja. IPSH ju lejon që të shprehni pikëpamjet tuaja politike dhe etike përmes formatimit të investimit tuaj. Në thelbin e këtij koncepti janë dy stile konkurruese.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Financial Markets: Random, Cyclical Or Both? Tregjet financiare: të rastësishme, ciklike apo të dyja? By Paul Kosakowski [Paul Kosakowski began investing in 1998 and analyzes the markets from a perspective that includes both Cycles and Elliot Wave analysis combined with traditional technical indicators, such as MACD and Stochastics.] A mundet një investitor të fitojë një avantazh nga tregjet? Varet nga ajo çka ju kërkoni. Ka një kohë të gjatë që diskutohet rreth asaj nëse lëvizjet në tregje a janë të rastit apo janë ciklike. Secila palë thotë se ka të dhëna për të provuar se të tjerët janë të gabuar.
Teoria e tregut efiçient Aspekti themelor i ithtarëve të ecjes së rastit është Hipoteza e tregut efiçient (efficientmarkethypothesis-EMH). Ideja e hipotezës së tregut efiçient – HTE qëndron në atë se i gjithë informacioni i njohur është tashmë i vlerësuar në strukturën e çmimit të letrave me vlerë. Kështu që, asnjë informacion i njohur nuk mund t’i ndihmojë ndonjë investitori për të fituar një avantazh mbi tregun. Analiza themelore Analiza themelore është një studim i gjendjes aktuale të kompanisë në lidhje me potencialin e saj për qëndrueshmërinë dhe rritjen e ardhshme. Një analist kryesor mund të vendos të blejë aksioneve, nëse ai ose ajo e sheh se kjo kompani ka një Bilanc me borxh të ulët dhe me të ardhura mbi mesataren e rritjes së aksioneve. Analiza teknike Analiza teknike sillet rreth besimit se sjellja e investitorëve përsëritet me kalimin e kohës. Nëse dikush mund t’i njohë këto modele, ai ose ajo do të mund të përfitojë prej tyre, duke i përdorur ato për të parashikuar potencialisht lëvizjen e çmimeve në të ardhmen. Debati në mes të atyre që besojnë në një treg efikas dhe atyre që besojnë se tregjet e ndjekin një rrugë disi ciklike do të vazhdojë me gjasë për një kohë në të ardhmen. Ndoshta përgjigjja qëndron diku në mes. Tregjet mund të jenë vërtetë ciklike me elemente që janë të rastësishme gjatë rrugës. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ http://www.investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/04/071304.asp Getting To Know The Money Market (Të njohurit e tregut të parasë) by Jason Van Bergen Shanset janë që ju e keni dëgjuar termin më përpara, por çka pikërisht është tregu i parasë? Ai është vend i organizuar në të cilën pjesëmarrësit mund të japin dhe të marrin hua në shuma të mëdha parash për një periudhë prej një viti ose më pak. Ndërsa kjo është një arenë shumë efikase për bizneset, qeveritë, bankat dhe institucionet e tjera të mëdha të krijojnë fonde, tregu i parasë gjithashtu ofron një shërbim të rëndësishëm për individët që duan të investojnë shuma të vogla duke shijuar ndoshta likuiditetin më të mirë dhe sigurinë që gjendet kudo. Këtu ne i trajtojmë në disa nga llojet më të njohura të instrumenteve të tregut të parasë dhe benefitet (të mirat) që ato ofrojnë për investuesit individualë. Individët do të investojnë në tregun e parasë për shumë arsye të njëjta sikurse që një biznes apo qeveri do të japë ose marrë hua fondet në tregun e parasë: ndonjëherë nevoja për fonde nuk përputhet me pasjen e tyre. Për shembull, nëse ju i gjeni, ju keni një shumë të caktuar parash që ju nuk keni nevojë menjëherë për to (për të paguar borxhin, për shembull), atëherë ju mund të zgjidhni për të investuar këto fonde përkohësisht, deri sa ju duhen për të bërë disa gjëra të tjera, investime afatgjata, ose blerje. Në qoftë se ju vendosni për t’i mbajtur këto fonde në të holla, kostoja oportune që ju të pësoni është interesi që ju mund të kishit marrë nga investimi i fondeve tuaja. Nëse ju i investoni fondet tuaja në tregun e parasë, ju mund, shpejt dhe me lehtësi, të siguroni këtë interes. Atributet më të mëdha që do ta tërheqin një investitor për instrumente afatshkurtra të tregut të parasë janë siguria dhe likuiditeti i lartë. Instrumentet e tregut të parasë kanë afate maturimi që shkojnë nga një ditë në një vit, por ato janë zakonisht tre muaj ose më pak. Për shkak se këto investime janë të lidhura me tregje sekondare - masive dhe aktive - ju pothuajse gjithmonë mund t’i shisni këto para afatit të maturimit, megjithëse me çmimin e heqjes dorë nga interesi që do të kishit fituar me mbajtjen e tyre deri në afatin e maturimit. Përmes tregut të parasë, pjesëmarrësit në tregun financiar, ekonomia si tërësi, që nga ndërmarrjet e deri te qeveritë në nivele të ndryshme, i realizojnë disa qëllime fundamentale të politikave ekonomike të çdo vendi:
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Tregjet e kapitalit Fixing America’s Broken Housing Market Joseph E. Stiglitz 08-09-2010 Një shenjë e sigurtë e një ekonomie tregu se është jofunksionale është vazhdimësia e papunësisë. Në Shtetet e Bashkuara sot, një nga gjashtë punëtorë të cilët do të donin një punë me orar të plotë, nuk mund të gjejnë një të tillë. Kjo është një ekonomi me nevoja shumë të mëdha të paplotësuara dhe burime të gjera të pashfrytëzuara. Tregu i shtëpive të banimit është një anomali tjetër e SHBA-ve: ka me qindra e mijëra njerëz të pastrehë (më shumë se 1.5 milionë amerikanë kanë kaluar, të paktën, një natë pa strehë, në vitin 2009), ndërsa me qindra e mijëra shtëpi janë të lira (pa banorë). Në të vërtetë, shkalla e humbjes së të drejtës mbi pronën - në shtëpi banimi (foreclosure) është në rritje. Dy milionë amerikanë i kanë humbur shtëpitë e tyre, në 2008 dhe 2.8 milionë më shumë në 2009, por numri pritet të jetë edhe më i lartë në vitin 2010. Tregjet tona financiare kanë përfomuar dëshpërimisht keq – ndërkaq tregjet “racionale"nuk japin hua për njerëzit që nuk mund ose nuk do të paguajnë - dhe ende drejtuesit e këtyre tregjeve ishin të shpërblyer sikur të ishin gjeni financiarë. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Build America Borrowers Race Countdown Clock Before Year-End: Muni Credit By Ashley Lutz Dec 11, 2010
States and municipalities were set to sell more than $3 billion of the securities next week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg late yesterday. In Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York state, issuers said they’re hurrying to market before the program expires Dec. 31, absent an extension. “We were trying to beat the clock, so we fast-tracked the financing to take advantage,” Charles Perl, deputy chief financial officer of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, said yesterday. The district moved up a planned $350 million Build America debt sale to next week, months ahead of its previous schedule, he said yesterday in an interview. The U.S. government pays 35 percent of the interest costs for the bonds to help communities build roads, bridges and other infrastructure. The securities pay taxable interest, making them similar to corporate debt and attractive to a broader market compared with tax-exempt municipal bonds. The program began as part of President BarackObama’s economic-stimulus package to spur public works projects by driving down borrowing costs. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The role of stock exchanges (Roli i Bursave)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ A New World Architecture George Soros 04 11 2009 NEW YORK – Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of communism, the world is facing another stark choice between two fundamentally different forms of organization: international capitalism and state capitalism. The former, represented by the United States, has broken down, and the latter, represented by China, is on the rise. Following the path of least resistance will lead to the gradual disintegration of the international financial system. A new multilateral system based on sounder principles must be invented. While international cooperation on regulatory reform is difficult to achieve on a piecemeal basis, it may be attainable in a grand bargain that rearranges the entire financial order. A new Bretton Woods conference, like the one that established the post-WWII international financial architecture, is needed to establish new international rules, including treatment of financial institutions that are too big to fail and the role of capital controls. It would also have to reconstitute the International Monetary Fund to reflect better the prevailing pecking order among states and to revise its methods of operation. In addition, a new Bretton Woods would have to reform the currency system. The post-war order, which made the US more equal than others, produced dangerous imbalances. The dollar no longer enjoys the trust and confidence that it once did, yet no other currency can take its place. The US ought not to shy away from wider use of IMF Special Drawing Rights. Because SDRs are denominated in several national currencies, no single currency would enjoy an unfair advantage. The range of currencies included in the SDRs would have to be widened, and some of the newly added currencies, including the renminbi, may not be fully convertible. This would, however, allow the international community to press China to abandon its exchange-rate peg to the dollar and would be the best way to reduce international imbalances. And the dollar could still remain the preferred reserve currency, provided it is prudently managed. One great advantage of SDRs is that they permit the international creation of money, which is particularly useful at times like the present. The money could be directed to where it is most needed, unlike what is happening currently. A mechanism that allows rich countries that don’t need additional reserves to transfer their allocations to those that do is readily available, using the IMF’s gold reserves. Reorganizing the world order will need to extend beyond the financial system and involve the United Nations, especially membership of the Security Council. That process needs to be initiated by the US, but China and other developing countries ought to participate as equals. They are reluctant members of the Bretton Woods institutions, which are dominated by countries that are no longer dominant. The rising powers must be present at the creation of this new system in order to ensure that they will be active supporters. The system cannot survive in its present form, and the US has more to lose by not being in the forefront of reforming it. The US is still in a position to lead the world, but, without far-sighted leadership, its relative position is likely to continue to erode. It can no longer impose its will on others, as George W. Bush’s administration sought to do, but it could lead a cooperative effort to involve both the developed and the developing world, thereby reestablishing American leadership in an acceptable form. The alternative is frightening, because a declining superpower losing both political and economic dominance but still preserving military supremacy is a dangerous mix. We used to be reassured by the generalization that democratic countries seek peace. After the Bush presidency, that rule no longer holds, if it ever did. In fact, democracy is in deep trouble in America. The financial crisis has inflicted hardship on a population that does not like to face harsh reality. President Barack Obama has deployed the “confidence multiplier” and claims to have contained the recession. But if there is a “double dip” recession, Americans will become susceptible to all kinds of fear mongering and populist demagogy. If Obama fails, the next administration will be sorely tempted to create some diversion from troubles at home – at great peril to the world. Obama has the right vision. He believes in international cooperation, rather than the might-is-right philosophy of the Bush-Cheney era. The emergence of the G-20 as the primary forum of international cooperation and the peer-review process agreed in Pittsburgh are steps in the right direction. What is lacking, however, is a general recognition that the system is broken and needs to be reinvented. After all, the financial system did not collapse altogether, and the Obama administration made a conscious decision to revive banks with hidden subsidies rather than to recapitalize them on a compulsory basis. Those institutions that survived will hold a stronger market position than ever, and they will resist a systematic overhaul. Obama is preoccupied by many pressing problems, and reinventing the international financial system is unlikely to receive his full attention. China’s leadership needs to be even more far-sighted than Obama is. China is replacing the American consumer as the motor of the world economy. Since it is a smaller motor, the world economy will grow slower, but China’s influence will rise very fast. For the time being, the Chinese public is willing to subordinate its individual freedom to political stability and economic advancement. But that may not continue indefinitely – and the rest of the world will never subordinate its freedom to the prosperity of the Chinese state. As China becomes a world leader, it must transform itself into a more open society that the rest of the world is willing to accept as a world leader. Military power relations being what they are, China has no alternative to peaceful, harmonious development. Indeed, the future of the world depends on it.
By Jason Simpkins, Managing Editor, Money Morning May 27, 2010
The ECB is running low on dollars, and that problem could escalate when the U.S. Federal Reserve closes swap lines that were temporarily reinstated as the Greek debt crisis escalated. Additionally, more deposits are being yanked from the central bank as holders question whether or not the ECB has enough juice to stop a classic bank panic. The euro yesterday (Wednesday) remained at a near four-year low against the dollar, tumbling 0.5% to $1.2306. The beleaguered currency dropped against the yen and British pound, as well. The currency has come under tremendous pressure as investors wonder if Greece's fiscal crisis will spread to other heavily indebted nations. Greece's deficit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is a staggering 13.6%, but Greece is No. 2 on the list of over-spenders. No. 1 is Ireland, whose deficit-to-GDP ratio is 14.3%. Spain comes in third at 11.2%, and Portugal is fourth at 9.4%. The euro in the past six months has dropped by about 15% against the dollar, as investors rushed to ditch the currency. That has stretched dollar liquidity in the Eurozone, and there's no indication that demand will ebb in the weeks ahead. "A shortage of dollar liquidity is being increasingly reflected in the sharp rise of dollar LIBOR and this is expected to get worse as the month-end approaches with pressures in money markets likely to build over the coming days," Hans Redeker, an analyst at BNP Paribas (OTC: BNPQY), told the Financial Times. Data from the British Bankers' Association showed the three-month U.S. dollar London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, rose to 0.53781% from Tuesday's 0.53625%, the highest fixing since July 6, 2009. Libor - the rate banks pay each other for three-month loans in dollars - is a liquidity indicator. Libor has more than doubled this year as the European debt crisis fueled speculation that the quality of banks' collateral has been degraded and financial institutions questioned their peers' creditworthiness. Banks also are making greater use of the ECB's deposit facility, leaving cash with the central bank overnight for rates of interest that are lower than what they would earn lending to other banks. The fear among banks was compounded when four of Spain's savings banks with more than $165 billion (135 billion euros) in assets announced earlier this week that they plan to merge. That announcement stoked fears that some of Europe's biggest banks - which have broad and interlinked exposure to one another - are on the verge of toppling. "It's all part of concern about the system, about whether the sovereign-debt crisis will morph into a bigger systematic crisis," Padhraic Garvey, head of investment-grade strategy at ING Groep NV (NYSE ADR: ING) in Amsterdam, told Bloomberg News. "We're not quite at a point where that's imminent, but that risk is being priced in." The U.S. Federal Reserve on May 9 reinstated swap lines with the ECB in an effort to alleviate some of the stress on the central bank - but only as a temporary measure. There is growing speculation that the Fed will reduce the rate on dollar-euro swaps, but Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has not indicated that that would be the case. "While the market was hoping that the rates on this facility would become more favorable, Mr. Bernanke has been reminding the market that the dollar swap lines are not a permanent device," said BNP's Redeker, referencing comments Bernanke made yesterday in Tokyo. Even so, the higher costs of the Fed's loan program have done nothing to stymie demand. The ECB allotted $5.4 billion to three banks at its dollar swap tender Wednesday, despite the funds being twice as expensive as rates in the interbank market. "The swap facility is continuing evidence of the rising demand for dollars," Don Smith, an economist at ICAP, told the Wall Street Journal. Of course, if no further action is taken and investors continue to pursue dollars at the expense of the euro, there's a growing likelihood that the European debt contagion will evolve into a systemic failure. "What happens next is down to the central banks; the dollar funding hole needs plugging," Credit Agricole said in a research report. "We doubt that central banks are sitting on their hands at the moment and imagine that another 84-day dollar facility will be announced soon and then perhaps term-auction facilities, or any number of the older facilities." The ECB could opt to cut its refinancing rate, used to lend to commercial banks, which is now at a record low 1%, or reintroduce regular six and 12-month refinancing operations in unlimited amounts, which were first used at the height of the financial market turmoil in 2007-08. "It could decide to diminish the cost of the USD liquidity," Barclays economist Laurent Fransolet told Reuters. "But we would note that it did not do so even at the worst of the crisis when the demand for USD funding was much higher and conditions were much worse than currently." Use of the Fed's swap facility reached $583 billion in December 2008, whereas foreign banks have only tapped the program for some $9 billion since it was reinstated earlier this month.
Pushed to extremes the ECB could also be forced to intervene by propping up the euro. However, that would only be an option if the euro slumps considerably below its long-term average, which it currently is not. Can the Euro be Saved? Joseph E. Stiglitz 05 05 2010
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