Microsoft Word 1060-frontespizio doc

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Temi di Discussione

(Working Papers)

Intergenerational mobility in the very long run: 

Florence 1427-2011

by Guglielmo Barone and Sauro Mocetti

Number

1060

Apr

il 20

16

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Temi di discussione

(Working papers)

Intergenerational mobility in the very long run: 

Florence 1427-2011

by Guglielmo Barone and Sauro Mocetti

Number 1060 - April 2016

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The purpose of the 

Temi di discussione series is to promote the circulation of working 

papers prepared within the Bank of Italy or presented in Bank seminars by outside 

economists with the aim of stimulating comments and suggestions.

The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not involve the 

responsibility of the Bank.

Editorial Board: 

Pietro Tommasino, Piergiorgio Alessandri, Valentina Aprigliano, 

Nicola Branzoli, Ines Buono, Lorenzo Burlon, Francesco Caprioli, Marco Casiraghi,  

Giuseppe Ilardi, Francesco Manaresi, Elisabetta Olivieri, Lucia Paola Maria Rizzica, 

Laura Sigalotti, Massimiliano Stacchini.

Editorial Assistants:

 Roberto Marano, Nicoletta Olivanti.

ISSN 1594-7939 (print)

ISSN 2281-3950 (online)

Printed by the Printing and Publishing Division of the Bank of Italy

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INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY IN THE VERY LONG RUN: 

FLORENCE 1427-2011 

 

Guglielmo Barone



 and Sauro Mocetti



 

 

Abstract 

We examine intergenerational mobility in the very long run, across generations that are six 

centuries apart. We exploit a unique dataset containing detailed information at the individual 

level for all people living in the Italian city of Florence in 1427. These individuals have been 

associated, using their surnames, with their pseudo-descendants living in Florence in 2011. We 

find that earnings elasticity is about 0.04, much higher than predicted by traditional models of 

intergenerational mobility. We also find an even stronger role for real wealth inheritance and 

evidence of persistence in belonging to certain elite professions. Our results are confirmed when 

we account for the quality of the pseudo-links and when we address the potential selectivity bias 

due to the differential survival rates across surnames. We argue that the quasi-immobility of pre-

industrial society and the positional advantages in the access to certain professions might explain 

(in part) the long-lasting effects of ancestors’ socioeconomic status.    

 

JEL Classification: J62, N33, D31. 

Keywords: intergenerational mobility, earnings, wealth, professions, informational content 

of surnames, Florence. 

 

Contents 

1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 5 

2. Empirical strategy ................................................................................................................ 8 

3.  Data and descriptive analysis ............................................................................................. 10 

3.1 Data sources ................................................................................................................ 10 

3.2  The origin and distribution of surnames ..................................................................... 11 

3.3 Descriptive analysis .................................................................................................... 12 

4. Main results ....................................................................................................................... 14 

5. Robustness ......................................................................................................................... 16 

5.1  Imputation procedures and outliers ............................................................................ 16 

5.2 Robustness of pseudo-links ........................................................................................ 16 

5.3  Selectivity bias due to families' survival rates ............................................................ 18 

6.  Discussion of long-run persistence .................................................................................... 20 

6.1  Intergenerational mobility in the 15

th

 century ............................................................ 20 

6.2  Dynasties in elite professions ..................................................................................... 21 

7. Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 23 

References .............................................................................................................................. 24 

Tables ..................................................................................................................................... 27 

Figures .................................................................................................................................... 32 

 

                                                           



 Bank of Italy, Regional Economic Research Division, Bologna and RCEA. 



 Bank of Italy, Regional Economic Research Division, Bologna. 

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