Caucasus and Central Asia in the Globalization Process
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& Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan has heightened
tensions in this region. Developing export routes
for bringing landlocked Kazakhstan’s oil to world
markets has been the other major issue. Lack of
other routes has hindered further growth in
exports. As more oil is pumped out, Kazakhstan
must choose between exporting in north through
Russia, east through China or west through an
exported BTC.
On June 16, 2006 Kazakh and Azerbaijan
reached an agreement to facilitate the transportation
of Kazakhstan oil across the Caspian Sea to link
with BTC pipeline. The 685 km South Caucasus
gas pipeline runs alongside the BTC from Baku to
Georgia’s border with Turkey where it connect to
the Turkey’s gas network and eventually will reach
markets throughout Southeast Europe.
The geo strategic scenario and the Asia
Pacific drives take the turn towards the Eurasian
landmass where they want to secure their energy
requirements.
Recently
Japan’s
energized
diplomatic drive in Central Asia comes at a time
when the Tokyo is implementing its new energy
strategy aimed at ensuring stable oil and gas
resources. Eventually, Junichiro Koizumi was the
first Japanese Prime Minister to visit Central Asia
in September 2006. Tokyo aims to build up
pipeline through the Central Asia to the Indian
Ocean via Afghanistan to carry oil and gas to
Japan. In this pipeline Japan’s Itochu Oil
Exploration and Inpex Corp have 3.92 % and 10
% interest respectively. Currently, Japan buys
about 90 % of its crude oil imports from Middle
Eastern Countries. In a production Sharing
Agreement for three fields in the southern Caspian
Sea, A-C-G. Itochu Oil exploration and Inpex also
participated in the consortium that built the BTC
pipeline with interests of 3.4 and 2.5 %
respectively.
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During the inauguration ceremony,
Turkey Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
mentioned his country’s historical role as the
bridge between Europe and Asia when he referred
to the BTC as “the Silk Road of the 21
st
century”,
because of Azerbaijan’s increased oil output to
477,000 barrels per day. Furthermore, Baku
expected 2006 oil revenues of $ 650 million or
more, a figure that is predicted to reach $15 billion
annually and reach $160 billion by 2025.
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Marketing gas remains the problem because of
the shortage of export pipelines. The only two gas
export lines are through Russia to Europe and to
Iran. Natural gas from the Caspian Sea region,
mostly from Turkmenistan, went into competition
with Gazprom, the Russian state natural gas
company. Since all the pipelines connecting the
region to world markets were owned by Gazprom
and routed through Russia, Turkmen natural gas
became relatively uncompetitive in market terms
and consequently, Turkmenistan had little
incentive for increasing its production of natural
gas. On September 5
th
2006, Gazprom agreed to
buy Turkmen gas at $ 100 per 1000 cubic meters.
Russian State owned Gazprom on 1
st
January
2006 turned off the gas taps to Ukraine, by ending
subsidies and raising prices by 400 %. This
affected gas deliveries to Western Europe, which
gets 25 % of its gas from Russia and whose
energy demand is expected to double between
2000 and 2030. Russian pressure on its southern
neighbors in the energy sector has been relentless
from the time of Independence. Russia will be
unable to meet its contracts in Europe unless it
gets significant quantities of Central Asian Gas.
Another proposal of Turkmenistan gas
pipeline through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan
faces obstacle. In fact, Iran has second largest gas
reserves after Russia. Iran’s strategic situation has
created a special niche for the nation in term of its
geographic
location
and
energy
issues.
Turkmenistan rediscovered a super giant natural
gas field with reserves of 7 trillion cubic meters
that could significantly alter the energy playing
field if confirmed. This super giant gas field,
South Iolotanks is twice of Russia’s Shtokman
field. Along with Russia, Turkmenistan would be
interested in constructing a new gas pipeline to
Europe. Once operational, it would add export
capabilities to the tune of 40 bcm/year. The Trans
Caspian route would also serve as an alternative
route to the proposed Nabucco pipeline, which is
supported by the US and EU and opposed by
Russia. Most western energy monitoring
organizations agree with June 2006 BP “Statistical
Review of World Energy”, which estimates that
Turkmenistan has 2.9 trillion cubic meters of gas
reserves. If the Iolotansk field does, in fact,
contain 7 trillion cubic meters this would have a
dramatic impact on the energy map of Central
Asia, Europe and Russia.
Turkmen news agency TDH States that, as per
agreement of Central Asia-Turkmenistan and China
Pipeline, China will buy 30 bcm of Turkmen gas
each year for 30 years, starting in 2009. The initial
agreement leaves the nuts and bolts of pipeline
construction to be worked out by December 31,
2006. This pipeline route will connect in the first
phase in 2008, to deliver some 30bcm of Turkmen
gas (annually) via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to
Urumci (Western China), and extend further to
Shanghai (Eastern China). Its total capacity is
expected to increase up to 50 bcm by 2010.
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