Microsoft Word Heckman final 2007-03-22c jsb doc
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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- Table 2. Educational characteristics of the labor force aged 25 and over: 1980, 2000 and 2020
- Table 3. Aggregate Burden of Crime
- Table 4. Effects of early intervention programs
- Table 5. Estimated social benefits of increasing high school completion rates by 1 percent
- Property Crimes
- Table 6. Evaluating school quality policies: discounted net returns to decreasing pupil- teacher ratio by 5 pupils per teacher for people with 12 years of schooling in 1990
- Table 7. Economic benefits and costs
Table 2. Educational characteristics of the labor force aged 25 and over: 1980, 2000 and 2020 Labor
Force in 1980
Growth 1980 –
2000 Labor
Force in 2000
Growth in 2000 –
2020 Labor
Force in 2020
Education
Less than High School 17.3 -5.3
12.0 0.9
12.9 High School Only 31.5 6.3
37.8 3.8
41.6 Some Schooling Beyond High School 13.8 19.1 32.9 6.2 39.1 College Degree or More 17.3
18.5 35.8
7.7 43.5
Total 79.8 38.7 118.5 18.6 137.1 % with College Degree 21.6%
31.7%
Note: Assumes that subsequent cohorts have same education at age 25 as the cohort age 25 in 2000.
Source: Ellwood (2001).
Table 3. Aggregate Burden of Crime Crime-induced Production ($ billion) 464 Opportunity Costs ($ billion) 152 Risks to Life And Health ($ billion) 672 Transfers ($ billion) 706 Gross Burden ($ billion) 1,995 Net of Transfers ($ billion) 1,289 Per Capita ($) 4,818 Source: Anderson (1999). All figures inflated to 2004 dollars using the CPI. Table 4. Effects of early intervention programs Program/Study Cost* Program Description Pre-delinquency Crime
Abecedarian Project** (Ramey, et al., 1988) N/A
Full-time year round classes for children from infancy through preschool No effect Houston PCDC** (Johnson, 1988) N/A Home visits for parents for 2 yrs; child nursery care 4 days per week in year two (Mexican Americans) Rated less aggressive and hostile by mothers (ages 8-11) Perry Preschool Program** (Schweinhart, Barnes, & Weikart, 1993) $19,162 Weekly home visits with parents; intensive, high quality preschool services for one to two years 2.3 vs. 4.6 lifetime arrests by age 27; 7% vs. 35% arrested 5 or more times Syracuse University Family Development (Lally, Mangione and Honig, 1988) $54,483 Weekly home visits for family; day care year round 6% vs. 22% had probation files; offenses were less severe Yale Experiment $33,319 Family support; home visits and day care as needed for thirty months Rated less aggressive and pre- delinquent by teachers and parents (age 12½) Note: All comparisons are for program participants versus non-participants. a Costs valued in 2004 dollars. b Studies used a random assignment experimental design to determine program impacts. Data from Donohue and Siegelman (1998), Schweinhart, Barnes and Weikart (1993), and Seitz (1990) for the impacts reported here. N/A indicates not available.
Source: Heckman, Lochner, Smith and Taber (1997).
Table 5. Estimated social benefits of increasing high school completion rates by 1 percent Estimated Change In Crime Social Benefits Violent Crimes:
Murder -373 $1,457,179,565 Rape 1,559
-$179,450,969 Robbery 918 -$11,116,176 Assault -37,135
$475,045,373 Property Crimes:
Burglary -9,467 $12,052,009 Larceny/Theft -35,105
$8,958,962 Motor Vehicle Theft -14,238 $22,869,192 Arson -469
$23,637,635 Total: -94,310
$1,809,175,590 Notes: Victim costs and property losses taken from Table 2 of Miller et al.(1996). Incarceration costs per crime equal the incarceration cost per inmate, $17,027 (U.S. Department of Justice, 1999), multiplied by the incarceration rate (U.S. Department of Justice, 1994). Total costs are calculated as the sum of victim costs and incarceration costs less 80% of the property loss (already included in victim costs) for all crimes except arson. Total costs for arson are the sum of victim costs and incarceration costs since there is no transfer of property between victim and criminal. Estimated changes in crimes adjust the arrest effect by the number of crimes per arrest. The social benefit is the estimated change in crimes times the total cost per crime. All dollar figures are adjusted to $2004 using the CPI. Source: Lochner and Moretti (2004).
Table 6. Evaluating school quality policies: discounted net returns to decreasing pupil- teacher ratio by 5 pupils per teacher for people with 12 years of schooling in 1990 Productivity Growth Rate Includes 50% Social Cost of Funds Annual Rate of Return to Earnings from School Quality Change:
1%
2% 7% Discount Rate
0%
Yes -9056
-8092 0%
No -5716
-4752 1%
Yes -8878
-7736 1%
No -5538
-4396 5% Discount Rate
0% Yes
-9255 -7537
0% No
-5597 -3880
1% Yes
-8887 -6802
1% No
-5230 -3145
3% Discount Rate
0%
Yes -8840
-5591 0%
No -4810
-1562 1%
Yes -8036
-3984 1%
No -4007
45 Note: All values, in 1990 dollars, are given as net present values at age 8 of an individual; costs of schooling improvements are incurred between ages 6 and 18 and benefits from increased earnings occur between ages 19 and 65. Data for costs are from NCES 1993. Costs of adding new teachers include salaries and capital, administrative, and maintenance expenditures. Estimates of increases in earnings resulting from a decreasing the pupil-teacher ration by 5 pupils per teacher come from Card and Krueger (1992, table 3) which produces a range of estimated earnings increase from about 1 to 4 percent, whereas most of the estimates are in the 1 to 2 percent range, which we use in this paper. To capture the benefits of smaller class sizes, students must attend twelve years of higher-quality schooling. We calculate the costs for one year of improvements and then calculate the present value of the costs over the twelve years of school attendance.
Table 7. Economic benefits and costs
Perry Preschool Chicago CPC Child Care 986 1916
Earnings 40537 32099
K-12 9184 5634
College/Adult -782 -644
Crime 94065 15329
Welfare 355 546
Future Generation Earnings 6181
4894 Abuse/Neglect 0 344 Total Benefits 150525 60117
Total Costs 16514
7738 Net Present Value 134011 52038
Benefits-to-Costs Ratio 9.11
7.77 Notes: All values discounted at 3% and are in 2004 dollars. Numbers differ slightly from earlier estimates because Future Generations (FG) Earnings for Perry and CPC were estimated using the ratio of FG Earnings Effect to Earnings Effect (about 15%) that was found in Abecedarian. Source: Barnett (2004).
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 Decile of Noncognitive Figure 9a. Probability of Being a High School Dropout by Age 30 - Males i. By Decile of Cognitive and Noncognitive Factors Decile of Cognitive Probability 1 2
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 ii. By Decile of Cognitive Factor Decile
Probability and Confidence Interval (2.5-97.5%) Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that hig he r deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (200 draws). Source: Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua (2006). 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4
0.6 0.8
1 iii.
By Decile of Noncognitive Factor Decile
Probability 2.5% - 97.5 5 Conf . Inter va
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 Decile of Noncognitive Figure 9b. Probability of Incarceration by Age 30 - Males i. By Decile of Cognitive and Noncognitive Factor Decile of Cognitive Probability 1 2
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 ii. By Decile of Cognitive Factor Decile
Probability and Confidence Interval (2.5-97.5%) Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that hig he r deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (200 draws). Source: Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua (2006). 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4
0.6 0.8
1 iii.
By Decile of Noncognitive Factor Decile
Probability 2.5% - 97.5% Conf . Inter va
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 Decile of Noncognitive Figure 9c. Probability Of Daily Smoking By Age 18 - Males i. By Decile of Cognitive and Noncognitive Factor Decile of Cognitive Probability 1 2
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 ii. By Decile of Cognitive Factor Decile
Probability and Confidence Interval (2.5-97.5%) Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that hig he r deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (200 draws). Source: Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua (2006). 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4
0.6 0.8
1 iii.
By Decile of Noncognitive Factor Decile
Probability 2.5% - 97.5% Conf . Inter va
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 Decile of Noncognitive Figure 9d. Probability Of Being Single With Child at Age 18- Females i. By Decile of Cognitive and Noncognitive Factors Decile of Cognitive Probability 1 2
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 ii. By Decile of Cognitive Factor Decile
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0.8 1 iii. By Decile of Noncognitive Factor Decile
Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that hig he r deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (200 draws). Source: Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua (2006). Probability and Confidence Interval (2.5-97.5%) Pronability 2.5% - 97.5% CI Yüklə 3,43 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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