Naval postgraduate school monterey, california thesis

operator’s skill 
factor, when analyzing the biological changes in the 
human body throughout the crisis. The factors of stress, boredom, time of day, lack of 
sleep, light, temperature, noise, etc., will oscillate throughout the life of a hostage crisis in 
the same form of a biorhythm plot. It would be ideal if we could assign day cycles to 
each principle of hostage rescue with some degree of precision. We could then run a 
computer simulation based on these values, starting with the initial date of the crisis and 
see the culmination points. However, this approach, as with any biorhythm theory, is 
very subjective and almost impossible to prognosticate with precision from one scenario 
to another.
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To see a one-month personal biorhythm chart, go to 
www.krstarica.com
, last accessed on 16 August 
2004. This site will plot a biorhythm based on your birth date; it will show physical, emotional, and 
intellectual cycles. 

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In the spirit of the biorhythm model, we can qualitatively represent the ebb and 
flow of the composite principles for successful hostage rescue operations. This allows us 
to observe changes that are critical for the decision maker in trying to decide the best 
execution time. It is a best-case approach that allows us to see graphically the best 
windows of opportunity for execution. 
Biorhythm Model
Biorhythm Model
Time
Success
Failure
50% Probability of Success
50% Probability of Success
98% Probability
98% Probability
50% Probability
50% Probability
Possible Hostage Shot
Possible Hostage Shot
Intelligence, Surprise + Deception, Operator’s Skill for Hostage Taker
Intelligence, Surprise + Deception, Operator’s Skill for Rescue Force
Start of Crisis
Start of Crisis
Figure 5.
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Crisis Biorhythm Model 
The model describes how initially, the hostage rescue force is not prepared to 
conduct the operation and how the terrorists have the upper hand controlling the crisis 
area. The rescue force has not developed a deliberate action plan or any accurate 
intelligence on the situation. Furthermore, it has not conducted any rehearsals or 
gathered any special equipment requirements specific to the target area. The terrorists, 
on the other hand, are taking advantage of the shock value of their most recent violent 
action, and are exploiting this window of opportunity to maintain their relative 
superiority over the hostages as well as any opposing force that might be in or around the 
target (police forces or security guards). As time goes by, the readiness level of the 
rescue force increases as well as the intelligence picture and information on the target 

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area. In contrast, the situation degrades for the terrorists. They begin to feel fatigue due 
to their static posture while in a high stress environment and their knowledge of the target 
area has reached its limits. They must now rely on outside information, most of the time 
provided by a negotiating team. The security posture and readiness of the terrorists begin 
to degrade significantly; their close proximity to the hostages will weaken their will and 
make them second-guess their intended cause. The only way for the terrorists to 
recapture some of their initiative, as portrayed on the graph, is by killing a hostage or by 
taking some other kind of drastic measure that will help them regain some relative 
superiority. This will allow them to reestablish a new culminating point and increase 
their chances of success. When this occurs, the biorhythm plot will describe a “switch 
back” in favor of the terrorists, and the rescue force must wait until the next window of 
opportunity. 
Time
Success
Failure
50% Probability
50% Probability
of Success
of Success
98% Probability
98% Probability
50% Probability
50% Probability
Possible Hostage Shot
Possible Hostage Shot
Start of Crisis
Start of Crisis
Release of a Hostage
Release of a Hostage
(new intelligence)
(new intelligence)
Figure 6.
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Crisis Biorhythm and Windows of 
Opportunity 
In similar fashion to the human biorhythm model, the hostage crisis model is 
broken down into three cycles based on the hostage rescue principles. The deception 
cycle is pooled together with the principle of surprise due to their close dependency on 
each other as a function of time. The surprise curve will represent both principles. These 
are portrayed by three distinct sinusoidal waves that oscillate in synchronicity or against 
each other depending on the nature of the crisis. Below are two examples representing 
each of the forces involved: 

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Figure 7.
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Takers’ Biorhythm Factors 
Figure 8.
Author’s Representation of the Rescue Force’s Biorhythm Factors 

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