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In the spirit of the biorhythm model, we can qualitatively represent the ebb and
flow of the composite principles for successful hostage rescue operations. This allows us
to observe changes that are critical for the decision maker in trying to decide the best
execution time. It is a best-case approach that allows us to see graphically the best
windows of opportunity for execution.
Biorhythm Model
Biorhythm Model
Time
Success
Failure
50% Probability of Success
50% Probability of Success
98% Probability
98% Probability
50% Probability
50% Probability
Possible Hostage Shot
Possible Hostage Shot
Intelligence, Surprise + Deception, Operator’s Skill for Hostage Taker
Intelligence, Surprise + Deception, Operator’s Skill for Rescue Force
Start of Crisis
Start of Crisis
Figure 5.
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Crisis Biorhythm Model
The model describes how initially, the hostage rescue force is not prepared to
conduct the operation and how the terrorists have the upper hand controlling the crisis
area. The rescue force has not developed a deliberate
action plan or any accurate
intelligence on the situation. Furthermore, it has not conducted any rehearsals or
gathered any special equipment requirements specific to the target area. The terrorists,
on the other hand, are taking advantage of the shock value of their most recent violent
action, and are exploiting this window of opportunity to maintain their relative
superiority over the hostages as well as any opposing force that might be in or around the
target (police forces or security guards).
As time goes by, the readiness level of the
rescue force increases as well as the intelligence picture and information on the target
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area. In contrast, the situation degrades for the terrorists. They begin to feel fatigue due
to their static posture while in a high stress environment and their knowledge of the target
area has reached its limits. They must now rely on outside information,
most of the time
provided by a negotiating team. The security posture and readiness of the terrorists begin
to degrade significantly; their close proximity to the hostages will weaken their will and
make them second-guess their intended cause. The only way for the terrorists to
recapture some of their initiative, as portrayed on the graph, is
by killing a hostage or by
taking some other kind of drastic measure that will help them regain some relative
superiority. This will allow them to reestablish a new culminating point and increase
their chances of success. When this occurs, the biorhythm plot will describe a “switch
back” in favor of the terrorists, and the rescue force must wait until the next window of
opportunity.
Time
Success
Failure
50% Probability
50% Probability
of Success
of Success
98% Probability
98% Probability
50% Probability
50% Probability
Possible Hostage Shot
Possible Hostage Shot
Start of Crisis
Start of Crisis
Release of a Hostage
Release of a Hostage
(new intelligence)
(new intelligence)
Figure 6.
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Crisis Biorhythm and Windows of
Opportunity
In similar fashion
to the human biorhythm model, the hostage crisis model is
broken down into three cycles based on the hostage rescue principles. The deception
cycle is pooled together with the principle of surprise due to their close dependency on
each other as a function of time. The surprise curve will represent both principles. These
are portrayed by three distinct sinusoidal waves that oscillate in synchronicity or against
each other depending on the nature of the crisis. Below are two examples representing
each of the forces involved:
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Figure 7.
Author’s Representation of the Hostage Takers’
Biorhythm Factors
Figure 8.
Author’s Representation of the Rescue Force’s Biorhythm Factors